Market Overview: (1.17-1.27)
Supported by the active contraction of the supply side, the price center of the dichloromethane market has slightly shifted upward, showing a pattern of “steady but firm”. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 27th, the average price of dichloromethane dispersed water in Shandong Province was reported at 1790 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.43% during the period. The main driving logic of the market has gradually shifted from “weak demand” to the combined effect of “cost support and supply contraction”.
Supply side: Device load reduction becomes a key bottom support factor
The most significant change in this cycle comes from the active adjustment of the supply side:
Concentrated load reduction and declining operating rate: The load of major production facilities has dropped to 50-70%. As a result, the overall operating rate of the industry has continued to decline from 75.8% in the middle of the month, effectively shrinking the market supply elasticity.
Inventory is in a healthy range: production enterprises actively control inventory, while traders generally maintain zero or low inventory operations. Therefore, despite average demand, the market has not formed a significant inventory selling pressure, providing a buffer space for prices.
Cost side: Double raw material increase builds strong support
The cost pressure has significantly increased, and the willingness of enterprises to lower prices is extremely low
Methanol prices are rising: Supported by reduced imports, increased shipping costs, and downstream rigid procurement, the methanol market is strengthening. As of January 27th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society has risen to 2315 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.85% during the period.
The price of liquid chlorine remains high and firm: the ex factory price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region remains at a high level of 350-450 yuan/ton. The simultaneous rise of two major raw materials has led to a significant increase in costs for methane chloride enterprises, resulting in production losses and providing rigid support for the price of dichloromethane on the cost side.
On the demand side: rigid procurement is the main focus, limiting the height of price increases
The lack of resonance between demand and supply contraction has limited the height of market rebound
Downstream on-demand procurement: The downstream industry only maintains rigid demand and has not engaged in centralized stocking behavior before the Spring Festival, resulting in average market transaction heat.
Market mentality cautious: Traders generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, taking small orders as needed, resulting in weak overall market liquidity and a lack of strong demand driven prices.
Market outlook: Cost and demand game, expected to fluctuate narrowly
Overall, the market is trapped in a game pattern of “cost bottom and demand cap”:
Difficulty in price increase: The downstream capacity is insufficient, and there is a lack of cooperation in volume trading, resulting in significant resistance to price breakthroughs.
Difficult to fall: Production enterprises are already on the brink of losses and have stabilized prices by reducing losses, with solid cost support.
Therefore, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will maintain a narrow fluctuation trend in the short term. Any directional breakthrough in prices requires waiting for unexpected changes on the demand side or further significant adjustments on the supply side.