According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 19th to 23rd, the domestic BDO price remained stable at 7357 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 12.41% year-on-year. Both supply and demand have increased, but the gap between supply and demand has widened. The atmosphere of downstream Spring Festival stocking is average, with inventory digestion or urgent contract follow-up. Some holding manufacturers are cautious and bearish in their trading, with a focus on shipment mentality, while the domestic BDO market is mainly on a wait-and-see approach.
In terms of supply and equipment, the second phase of the Lanshan Tunhe plant has been operating stably since its restart, while the Sichuan plant has been producing products after its restart. This has led to an increase in market supply and weakened support on the supply side. The supply side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market has seen an increase, with smooth shipments from production enterprises and temporary supply shortages. Due to the orderly use of electricity in Inner Mongolia, supply has contracted, and some power plants in Shaanxi and Ningxia have malfunctioned, resulting in a decrease in the operation of calcium carbide furnaces and a tightening of market supply. Raw material methanol: The methanol market is fluctuating and consolidating. As of 10:00 am on January 23, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2260 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market has risen, while the methanol market has fluctuated and consolidated, resulting in a mixed impact on BDO costs.
On the demand side, downstream PTMEG and PBAT have seen an increase in production, but the increase in demand is not as significant as the increase in supply, leading to a widening gap between supply and demand in the industry. The impact of BDO demand is mixed.
In the future, it is predicted that the Sichuan plant will increase its load and the Wanhua plant will restart and increase its production capacity, resulting in an increase in supply; GBL-NMP production has increased, with little fluctuation in other industries and an increase in demand; The narrow range consolidation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol still puts pressure on the BDO industry to incur losses. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on observation and consolidation.