According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 1 to January 15, 2026, the domestic butadiene market showed a significant upward trend, with prices rising from 8333.33 yuan/ton to 9483.33 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 13.8%. The overall market has fluctuated and strengthened this cycle, with a scarcity of low-priced goods, a strong attitude of suppliers to make offers, and stable support from downstream demand. Multiple factors have jointly driven up prices. The following provides a detailed analysis from three dimensions: cost, supply, and demand.
Cost wise: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the international crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen this cycle, providing solid cost support for the butadiene industry chain. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts and market concerns about the stability of global energy supply, coupled with marginal improvements in demand expectations, have driven up crude oil prices. Although there have been periodic fluctuations in the price of naphtha in this cycle, it has remained relatively high overall, laying the foundation for the upward trend of butadiene prices.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9550 yuan/ton.
Demand side: As the core downstream of butadiene, the butadiene rubber industry has been operating at a high level this cycle, with stable procurement demand, providing solid fundamental support for the butadiene market. In terms of production, the utilization rate of domestic Gaoshun Shunding rubber production capacity continues to rise. In early January, the utilization rate reached 79.15%, an increase of 1.97 percentage points compared to the previous month. The weekly output was 31800 tons, an increase of 2.55% compared to the previous month. The high load of the equipment has driven the stable release of butadiene rigid demand procurement. Despite the price increase of butadiene compressing the processing profit of butadiene rubber, the theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber this week was only 27 yuan/ton, which continued to narrow compared to the previous period. However, the industry still maintains a high willingness to operate and has strong resilience in the procurement demand for raw material butadiene.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 15th, the mainstream price of Sichuan Shunding rubber was 12100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of Dushanzi Shunding rubber was 12600 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: Overall, the domestic butadiene market in this cycle has experienced a significant price increase due to the combined effects of cost support, tight supply, and stable demand. On the cost side, crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded, strengthening bottom support. On the supply side, equipment maintenance, inventory clearance, and external market linkage have formed multiple benefits. On the demand side, high production of butadiene rubber has provided sustained demand, and the imbalance between supply and demand has driven the market to strengthen. In the short term, multiple butadiene units are expected to restart in late January, with supply side or marginal easing. However, due to the expected increase in exports and decrease in imports, net imports may continue to decrease, and port inventories are expected to remain low. The supplier’s price support mentality will continue. The demand side of the butadiene rubber plant is likely to maintain a high load, and although the tire industry has seasonal fluctuations in production, the demand for butadiene remains unchanged, and the butadiene market still has support. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will maintain a high volatility pattern in the short term, and special attention should be paid to the progress of plant restart, crude oil price trends, and downstream profit transmission.