The commodity market analysis system shows that on January 12th, the spot price of lithium carbonate reached a record daily increase of 7.25%. The benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in Shengyi Society was 150000 yuan/ton, an increase of 25% compared to the beginning of the year, a month on month increase of 57%, and a year-on-year increase of 90%; The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 148000 yuan/ton, an increase of 26% from the beginning of the year, a month on month increase of 57%, and a year-on-year increase of 94%.
Short term price fluctuation factors: policy buffer zone drives demand growth
On January 9, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued a policy clarifying that the export tax rebate for battery products will be adjusted in two stages: from April 1 to December 31, 2026, the value-added tax export rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6%; Starting from January 1, 2027, tax refunds will be completely cancelled, covering core varieties such as lithium-ion batteries, nickel hydrogen batteries, and all vanadium flow batteries. This policy has reserved a buffer period of nearly three months for battery companies (January March 2026), coupled with the first stage adjustment (April December) still retaining a 6% tax rebate rate. The market has formed a clear expectation of “grabbing exports”, promoting the expansion of short-term battery production scale and directly driving the short-term demand growth of lithium carbonate, which is expected to weaken the weak demand characteristics of the traditional off-season (January February).
Long term price fundamentals remain the dominant factor
1. Supply side constraints: The current operating rate of lithium salt plants is close to 90%, and the new smelting capacity is in a climbing stage. However, due to high lithium ore prices, insufficient OEM capacity, and the impact of some enterprise maintenance, the supply in January 2026 is likely to remain stable month on month, and the short-term supply growth is limited.
2. Inventory dynamic balance: Although there is a slight accumulation of lithium carbonate inventory, the scale is limited, and downstream enterprises have insufficient raw material inventory, resulting in a demand for replenishment. If the subsequent demand for export exceeds expectations, inventory may once again enter the de stocking channel, further strengthening the momentum of price increases.
3. Market sentiment and fund push: The correlation between the futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate is as high as 0.99, and speculative demand for funds has a significant impact on short-term prices. The current market has a clear logic of being bullish on lithium prices in the medium to long term, and the main contract holdings remain high.
4. Maintaining strong demand: The logic of demand growth for energy storage and new energy vehicles has not fundamentally changed, and will form a core support for lithium prices. The promotion of domestic electricity marketization reform, strong demand for conventional energy storage overseas, and expansion of global data center construction will continue to drive the growth of energy storage battery orders, which in turn will drive the demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and provide stable growth for lithium carbonate consumption.
The lithium carbonate data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the adjustment policy of battery export tax rebate this time has an impact on the price of lithium carbonate. The combination of export demand and low inventory pattern caused by the policy buffer period will promote the continued strong operation of lithium carbonate prices. The 150000/ton mark may become a short-term support level. In the medium and long term, the export cost pressure brought by the cancellation of tax rebate will suppress some demand, but the rigid growth demand of energy storage and new energy vehicles, as well as the tight supply-demand balance pattern in the industry, will still form the core support for lithium prices, and the space for a significant price decline is limited.