According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the price of lead 1 # was 17256 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.43% from the lead price of 17330 yuan/ton on October 27th.
This week’s market analysis
In terms of futures, the Shanghai lead market is currently showing a fierce game between long and short positions in the short term. From a technical analysis perspective, the Shanghai lead price has successfully broken through the key pressure level of 17400 yuan/ton. If it can firmly stand above this price level in the future, it is expected to further challenge the 17500 yuan/ton mark.
supply side
Recently, the resumption of production in refineries has continued to show a slow trend, which has led to a certain degree of improvement in the tight supply situation in the market, but the overall relief is extremely limited.
demand side
Against the backdrop of sustained high lead prices, some battery companies currently have high inventory levels due to sufficient procurement in the early stages. At the same time, these enterprises are concerned about the future trend of lead prices, fearing the risk of a downward trend in lead prices, which could lead to adverse effects such as inventory depreciation. Based on these considerations, these battery companies have recently formulated plans to suspend production for 3-5 days to avoid potential market risks.
comprehensive analysis
The progress of resuming production in refineries is relatively slow. However, in the high lead price market environment, some large battery companies have chosen to concentrate production shutdowns to cope with the pressure. At the same time, the price difference between spot prices and futures prices remains high, and merchants holding goods choose to deliver, which to some extent alleviates the liquidity risk in recent months. Under the market pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, the temporary supply-demand mismatch in the lead market is expected to improve, and lead prices are expected to make a slight adjustment at a high level in the short term.