Recently, the asphalt market has been operating weakly, with a relatively small decline compared to the crude oil market. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong Province was 3600 yuan/ton on May 16th, and as of the 23rd, the price was 3570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. Overall, demand has rebounded and trading is good.
On the supply side, the operating rate of asphalt production facilities continues to rise, with refinery production gradually increasing since early April and continuing to rise in May. From a national perspective, the cumulative production in the three weeks of May was about 1.65 million tons, returning to the previous level.
From a demand perspective, the overall asphalt market is still in a gradual recovery period, basically exceeding the level of the same period in the past two years. The overall performance is optimistic. From a seasonal perspective, with the further warming of temperatures in the north, the demand level is expected to continue to rise until the third quarter, which will also be a strong support for the steady improvement of asphalt in the later period.
From a cost perspective, crude oil prices are maintaining a wide range of fluctuations, and there is still a lack of obvious upward driving factors for crude oil in the future. In the short term, crude oil will continue to operate weakly, which will also exert some pressure on the trend of asphalt.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the recent performance of the asphalt market has been relatively stable, with smaller fluctuations and downturns compared to crude oil. However, the overall market is currently transitioning to the peak season. Driven by consumer demand in the later stage, asphalt is expected to rise slightly, but costs and supply still have some constraints on it.