Analysis: In the first two working days of this week, the domestic liquid ammonia market performed poorly, with liquid ammonia in the main production area of Shandong falling for two consecutive days. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong has experienced a decline of 3.60%. The main reason is that the supply side is loose, the operating rate of manufacturers has not changed much, and the amount of urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers has increased, which has put pressure on the price of liquid ammonia. At the beginning of the week, major factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by around 100 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is not high, with a focus on maintaining light inventory before the holiday. The prices of new orders in the peripheral market have continued to decline, and the market performance is mainly cautious. Agricultural demand is still in the off-season, while industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is 2250-2350 yuan/ton.

Prediction: As the Spring Festival approaches, the market atmosphere will be light, fertilizer procurement will be off-season, downstream operating rates will significantly decrease, and industrial demand will follow suit. However, the supply of liquid ammonia is relatively sufficient, and the pressure of supply and demand is prominent. It is expected that there is still room for a downward trend in ammonia prices before the holiday.