1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, caustic soda prices rose in September. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 829 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price in Shandong was around 833 yuan/ton. The overall price increased by 0.48%, and the price increased by 18.41% compared to the same period last year. On September 29th, the chemical index was 837 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.21% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 39.97% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has increased this month. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 900-950 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 810-900 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali.

At the beginning of September, the market showed an upward trend, with some areas experiencing some improvement in transaction conditions. The maintenance of some facilities in Shandong had a significant boost to market prices, and there was not much pressure on enterprise inventory. In early September, downstream alumina prices continued to show a stable to strong trend. Some aluminum plants that have a demand for replenishment have concentrated their purchases in the market, driving the price of caustic soda to continue to rise. Alumina continues to be in a tight pattern, and there may still be a demand for replenishing caustic soda.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 39th week of 2024 (9.23-9.27), there were a total of 2 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 2 products with zero price fluctuations in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen are: calcium carbide (2.53%), PVC (1.25%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are: light soda ash (-2.77%) and baking soda (-1.48%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.08%.

Business analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has been consolidating recently. At present, the inventory of caustic soda plants is low, and there are more maintenance enterprises in the main production areas after the holiday. It cannot be ruled out that there may be a price increase in the market. Overall, it is expected that there will be an upward trend in the later period of the National Day holiday, depending on downstream market demand.