1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride slightly decreased in January. The price of potassium chloride dropped from around 3080.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 9.09% and a year-on-year decrease of 28.21%. On January 31, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 88.89, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 49.09% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 52.60% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-03-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have seen a significant drop in quotes this month. The monthly terminal price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is around 2860 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, 62% of the port’s white potassium was around 2550 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 350 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; At the end of the month, the self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port was around 2750 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 400 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; At the end of the month, 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade was around 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 350 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. There are approximately 3.6 million tons of potassium chloride stored in the port.

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate has slightly declined this month, dropping from 7510 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7400 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.46%. The end of month price has decreased by 18.46% compared to the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate has slightly decreased this month, dropping from 5425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5175 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.61%. The price at the end of the month has decreased by 12.47% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined. Agricultural demand is average, industrial demand is weakening, and downstream manufacturers are less proactive in purchasing potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to early February, the trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly and fall, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average. Downstream agricultural demand is average, industrial demand weakens, and the price of potassium chloride may fluctuate and fall in the future.