According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene has slightly declined recently (12.1-12.12). On December 12th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6550 yuan/ton, while on December 1st, the benchmark price was 6660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65%.

International crude oil prices are weak, fluctuating, and toluene cost support is weak

Recently (12.1-12.12), international crude oil prices have been weakly volatile, providing weak support for the cost of toluene. As of December 12th, the WTI01 contract closed at $68.75 per barrel and settled at $68.61 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $73.27 per barrel and settled at $76.03 per barrel.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of early December, the operating rate of refinery facilities nationwide was around 690%.

PX starts slightly increasing toluene to obtain essential support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has declined, and PX external prices have fallen due to this impact. As of the 7th, the closing price in Asia is 935-937 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 960-962 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The PX supply in the Asian region is sufficient, and the domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable due to the impact of lower crude oil prices.

The external market price has fallen, and the pressure on the supply side of toluene continues to rise

On the one hand, since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has decreased. As of December 12th, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between $808-810 per ton; On the other hand, domestic toluene production has slightly increased and port inventory pressure continues. As of early December, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 740%; The inventory of toluene in East China is 42000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China is 11000 tons.

Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are weak and volatile, with weak support for the cost of toluene; The downstream mixed blending of toluene and other industries have weak demand support, coupled with a continued increase in supply in the short term, and it is expected that the toluene market will consolidate weakly in the future.