Domestic cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in April
According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of April 30th, cobalt prices were 264200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.12% compared to April 1st, when cobalt prices were 290700 yuan/ton. International cobalt prices have plummeted, with cobalt prices fluctuating and falling in April.
International cobalt prices plummet
From the trend chart of MB cobalt prices, it can be seen that in April, MB cobalt prices significantly decreased, while international cobalt prices fell, which was bearish for the domestic cobalt market and caused fluctuations in domestic cobalt prices.
Rising sales of new energy vehicles
According to data released by the Passenger Transport Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 617000 units in March 2023, a year-on-year increase of 35.2% and a month on month increase of 24.5%; From January to March, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.501 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%. In March, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 543000 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.9% and a month on month increase of 23.6%; From January to March, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.313 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%. In April, new energy vehicle manufacturers promoted and reduced prices, resulting in an increase in sales of new energy vehicles. However, the overall growth rate of new energy vehicle sales slowed down, and the demand growth in the cobalt market was less than expected.
Downstream demand has increased
As of April 2, 2023, the sales report data for the 13th week of the smartphone market shows that the total sales for that week were about 4.538 million units. Compared to 2022, not only did it not achieve a recovery, but it fell by about 2%. The 13th week of 2022 was one of the most strict lockdowns in China last year, but even so, the smartphone market this year is still not as strong as last year, and the sluggish consumption in the smartphone market is evident. The demand for e-cigarettes and Apple batteries has increased, driving the construction of lithium cobalt oxide enterprises to increase, and battery factories have also shown a decrease in inventory. In addition, various mobile phone factories are looking forward to the “618″ shopping festival promotion, hoping that consumers can replace smartphones or increase phone shipments, while also driving the cobalt market demand to a certain extent. Cobalt market demand has recovered, but overall cobalt market demand growth is less than expected. Despite promotional incentives in the future, mobile phone consumption is weak and difficult to improve. Cobalt market demand is less than expected, and there is still pressure on cobalt prices to decline in the future.
Increase in cobalt raw material imports
According to customs statistics, in March 2023, there were 506 tons of unwrought cobalt imported, an increase of 134% month on month and 29% year on year. From January to March 2023, China’s total imports of unwrought cobalt amounted to 119600 tons of metal tons, an increase of 12% year-on-year. The import of cobalt raw materials has increased, the supply of cobalt in the market has increased, and the pressure on cobalt prices to decline has increased.
Indonesia may ban cobalt ore exports
On April 15th, the Minister of Energy and Mines of Indonesia, Arifin Tasrif, said in an interview that Indonesia will implement a plan to ban the export of bauxite, cobalt, and tin in June. Currently, this news has not had an impact on spot cobalt prices, and domestic and foreign production capacity is gradually releasing, import quantities are also increasing. The phenomenon of weak downstream demand and only increasing inventory has caused market panic.
Overview and outlook
According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the international cobalt price fluctuated and fell in April, leaving the domestic cobalt market bearish. In terms of supply and demand, the import of cobalt raw materials has increased, and the cobalt market has sufficient supply. On the demand side, although the sales of new energy electric vehicles have increased significantly and the demand for lithium cobalt batteries has recovered, which has a certain supporting effect on the cobalt market, the overall weak market of the mobile phone market is difficult to improve, and the pressure of cobalt price decline still exists. In the future, the supply and demand in the cobalt market are weak, and the cobalt market is bearish. International cobalt prices have plummeted, and it is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate slightly in the future. At the same time, the cobalt market also has positive support. If Indonesia implements a ban on cobalt exports, domestic cobalt market supply may be insufficient, and the support for cobalt price increases remains. Cobalt prices may stop falling and rebound in late May.
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