According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, the domestic market of PTA in February showed a trend of falling first and then rising. As of February 28, the average market price in East China was 5597 yuan/ton, down 2.89% from the beginning of the month, down 1.05% year on year. At the beginning of the month, due to insufficient follow-up of terminal orders, the new PTA devices were put into production, and the price fell slightly. After that, PTA increased its maintenance due to low processing difference, and the downstream polyester was seasonally negative, the supply and demand pattern improved, and the price stopped falling and rebounded.

In terms of PTA supply, there are many factory maintenance devices restarted and the supply side increased. At present, a 2.5 million ton PTA plant in Shandong is planned to restart on February 28; A 1.2 million ton PTA plant in the northwest is planned to restart on February 28; A set of 2.25 million tons PTA plant in Northeast China was restarted at the end of February. At present, the industry is currently operating at more than 72% in the process of load lifting.

In February, the international crude oil price fluctuated and adjusted. As of the 27th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.68/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $82.04/barrel. At present, Russia claims that the production reduction decision is only for March, and the later production decision will depend on the situation. It is expected that Russia’s crude oil production will recover. In terms of demand, it is still the game between domestic demand repair and overseas economic recession, and the weakness of overseas economy suppresses the demand increment.

It is understood that most of the current terminal factories still focus on digesting the stock orders before the Spring Festival, and the domestic sales orders have only slightly increased. Foreign trade is subject to the impact of high inventory, and the issuance of new orders is still not smooth. The orders of textile enterprises have not shown the explosive growth expected by the market, and the issuance of new orders is limited, which restricts the enthusiasm of some manufacturers in production. The overall situation is still weak compared with the same period last year. As of February 27, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was more than 67%.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that the production reduction and restart of PTA plant will be in parallel, and the expected production of new devices will be superimposed, and the supply pressure will be difficult to reduce. At the same time, the recovery of terminal demand is slow, especially the scarcity of domestic and foreign trade orders will restrict the enthusiasm of the market to catch up and suppress the PTA market. PTA prices are expected to rise weakly in March, and it is still necessary to pay attention to crude oil and demand fulfillment.