1、 Price trend

Business agency: at the end of February, the domestic maleic anhydride market rose first and then fell

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride as of February 28 was 7540.00 yuan/ton (tax included), down 0.79% from 7600.00 yuan/ton on February 1.

The commodity index of maleic anhydride on February 28 was 71.03, down 1.69 points from yesterday, down 57.32% from the highest point of 166.43 points in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 38.78% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In February, the domestic phenylmaleic anhydride market continued to shut down. In late February, the upstream n-butane and liquid anhydride prices continued to decline, and the downstream resin replenishment was prudent, and the purchase was based on demand. As of the 28th, solid anhydride in Shandong was about 7200 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu was about 7200 yuan/ton. There was no new price outflow from Shanxi and Hebei, and that in South China was about 7500 yuan/ton.

The trend of international crude oil prices in February was volatile. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remained high, and the economic data was strong. The month-on-month rise in inflation data in January made the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news that the United States has released its crude oil reserves again is also negative for the oil market. However, the rising demand in Asia has played a certain role in supporting the international oil price, and Russia’s production reduction in March is expected to boost the oil price.

In February, the hydrogenation benzene market fell first and then rose, with a decline in the cycle. The ex-factory price in North China was 7166.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 6850 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 4.42%. The market trend fluctuates with the trend of pure benzene as a whole. In terms of supply, some units in the field have been overhauled recently, and the supply is slightly lower than that in the previous period. In terms of demand, the downstream styrene is weak, and the overall demand has not changed much. Some downstream units have been restarted in the later stage, and the market expects that the demand in the future market is fair.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The maleic anhydride product analyst of the Business Club believes that at present, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market has a serious deficit, the factory has been shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation of goods is small; In the near future, the price of n-butane in the upstream of maleic anhydride has continued to decline, and some resins in the downstream are in a strong wait-and-see mood. They are cautious in chasing up the price, and mainly purchase according to demand. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the near future.