441# silicon price trend
Metal silicon continued to be weak this week, and the spot price continued to decrease slightly. Due to the increase of construction in the southwest, more supply and less demand, and there was no obvious good news in the market, the decline of metal silicon was difficult to improve. As of May 13, according to the price monitoring of business society, the average price of domestic metal silicon market was 20180 yuan / ton, down 420 yuan / ton, or 2.04%.
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The price of 441# silicon in various regions on the 13th is as follows:
The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Huangpu port area is 20200-20400 yuan / ton, with an average price of 20300 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port area is 20000-202000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 20100 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 19900-20100 yuan / ton, with an average of 20000 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 19600-19800 yuan / ton, with an average of 19700 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai #441 metal silicon is 20700-20900 yuan / ton, with an average price of 20800 yuan / ton.
Supply side
In April, the output of metal silicon was 276000 tons, up 39.9% year-on-year and 5.4% month on month. Under the continuous high level of petroleum coke, silicon coal and other raw materials, the silicon plant is facing the risk of cost inversion. The enterprises adjust the start-up according to their own experience. Most enterprises in Xinjiang have basically completed the maintenance, reopened and put into operation. Due to entering the normal water period, the power cost has decreased in Yunnan and Sichuan, and the factory’s enthusiasm for start-up has increased. Comprehensively, it is optimistic that the output of metal silicon may increase to around 280000 tons in May.
Demand side
The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation was 21000 yuan / ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy increased month on month, but the speed was relatively slow, and the demand for metal silicon was still relatively flat.
The market of organosilicon DMC fluctuates. The market price of organosilicon DMC in mainstream areas is 26680 yuan / ton. Under the condition that the downstream demand of export machines is restrained, organosilicon is mainly subject to multi range shocks in the short term.
Polysilicon prices continue to remain strong, with an average price of 216666.67 yuan / ton in the mainstream market. Polysilicon manufacturers operate normally and basically produce at full capacity. The demand for metal silicon is stable and there is no more incremental space.
Future forecast
On the whole, the supply of metal silicon has increased, but the demand for downstream silicone and aluminum alloy has recovered slowly. The commencement of polysilicon has reached the upper limit, and the demand for metal silicon is weak. In the medium and long term, the demand will be released, forming a hedge against the supply. In the short term, it is still dominated by weak consolidation.
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