1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fluctuated slightly this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 71578.33 yuan / ton, up 2.02% from 71488.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 0.13% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has risen by 5 and fell by 6 and 1. Recently, the overall trend of copper price is relatively volatile.

In terms of supply and demand: there were few maintenance plans for smelters in the first quarter, and the fear that the northern smelter would be affected by the Winter Olympics in the early stage did not materialize, allowing the smelter to maintain a high output. In January, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was 63.42%, a month on month decrease of 16 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 11.4 percentage points. In January, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 56.25%, a month on month decrease of 15.65 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 10.79 percentage points.

To sum up: the cumulative stock range of domestic exchanges and social Treasury after the festival is greater than expected, and the explicit inventory is at a historical low. Domestic steady growth is still expected, and the downstream is gradually returning. The supply is tight and the inventory is low. With the resumption of work after the festival, the demand increases. The situation in Russia and Ukraine this week affected the market sentiment and affected the operation of copper prices, but the price remained in a relatively small range after falling last week, with support below. It is expected that the short-term pattern will still be dominated by shock.