1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), on September 30, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 12587.5 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.28% compared with the previous day, 3225 yuan higher than 9362.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 34.45% during the month and 88.44% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

On the last working day before the National Day holiday on September 30, PVC still did not stop rising and continued to rise. The highest price of the main contract 2201 was 12210, with a daily increase of 3.36%. The spot market also rose at the same time, with a daily increase of 3.28%, about 88% higher than the level in the same period last year. The enterprise still continued to raise the price by about 400-500 yuan / ton, and now it is more than 12000 yuan / ton, There are also higher ones. Taking Lutai chemical as an example, the ex factory price of spot exchange has reached 13500 yuan / ton, Haohua Aerospace 8 has risen to 14200 yuan / ton, and some ethylene methods have also risen to about 13700-13800 yuan / ton. The overall focus of the market continues to move upward. At present, the output of raw calcium carbide has decreased due to the double control of energy consumption. In just a few days, the price has risen to 7800 yuan / ton, and there is still room for rise. The cost support is strong, the price reduction intention of PVC market is insufficient, and many orders are closed and suspended. In addition, there is still a certain demand for goods in the downstream before the festival, which helps PVC to continue to make up the rise. Although the transaction atmosphere is relatively general, it still has a certain toughness, Support PVC to keep running high.

According to the monthly increase and decrease from October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021, it can be seen that PVC has mostly increased in recent years. Only in November 2020, January and June 2021, the price decreased, and increased sharply in September, reaching a new high in recent three years.

In terms of spot goods, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 11000-12500 yuan / ton. The interval of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 12580-12700 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 12300-12500 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 12300-12600 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China continues to rise.

Import and export: in August 2021, the import volume of PVC pure powder in China was 48200 tons, an increase of 33.7% month on month and a decrease of 60% year on year; In August, China’s export volume of PVC pure powder was 68900 tons, an increase of 11.1% month on month and 127.7% year-on-year. From January to August 2021, China imported 254000 tons of pure PVC powder, a decrease of 65.6% over the same period last year. From January to August, China exported 1234000 tons of pure PVC powder, an increase of 290.5% over the same period last year.

The rise of the external price has boosted the rising atmosphere of the domestic PVC market. At present, CFR China Zhang 20 is at US $1420 / T, CFR Southeast Asia is up 100 at US $1510 / T, and CFR India is up 160 at US $1800 / T.

region workmanship 9 / 30 (yuan / ton) 9 / 1 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 12200-12500 9400-9500 + 2800/+3000 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 12250-12550 9410-9480 + 2840/+3070 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 12140-12240 9270-9370 + 2870/+2870 Delivered

southwest Calcium carbide method 12520-13000 9250-9500 + 3270/+3500 Delivered

International crude oil, on September 29, the international oil price fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $74.83/barrel, down US $0.46 or 0.6%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $78.09/barrel, down US $0.26 or 0.33%. This was mainly due to the unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and pressure on oil prices, but the difficulty in increasing production of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) limited the decline in oil prices.

Ethylene, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and rose in September. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the month was US $1066.00/t, and the average price of ethylene at the end of the month was US $1124.75/t, an increase of 5.51%. The current price fell by 5.76% month on month, and the current price increased by 48.63% year-on-year.

Calcium carbide, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose sharply this month. This month, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 5450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7600.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 2150 yuan / ton, or 39.45%. The calcium carbide market rose sharply in September. The business community expects that the calcium carbide market will fluctuate slightly in the middle and early October.

Data show that from January to August, the national real estate development investment was 9806 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%. It is 15.9% higher than that from January to August 2019, with an average growth of 7.7% in the two years. Among them, the residential investment was 7397.1 billion yuan, an increase of 13.0%. In terms of subregions, the growth rate in the central region is relatively fast. From January to August, the investment in real estate development in the eastern region was 5187.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%; The central region invested 2061.4 billion yuan, an increase of 17.1%; The investment in the western region was 2183.7 billion yuan, an increase of 9.4%; The investment in Northeast China was 373.8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw calcium carbide continues to rise, there is still room for upward movement, the cost support is still strong, and the PVC spot is still tight. There is still a certain replenishment demand in the downstream product industry before the festival, so the fundamentals are good, so the PVC price is not easy to decline. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, and we need to pay attention to the trend of raw material price.