1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of toluene stabilized after rising continuously this week. On September 10, the price of toluene was 5580.2 yuan / ton; On Friday (September 17), the price was 5660 yuan / ton, up 1.43% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 62.64%.

2、 Analysis and review

This week, the toluene market was driven by the sharp rise in the prices of refined oil and related aromatic products. Before the Mid Autumn Festival, a small amount of storage was replenished in the downstream, and the trading volume of toluene market increased. However, the downstream demand follow-up was limited, the overall market demand changed little, and toluene stabilized after rising.

In the external market, driven by the rise in oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia rose this week. As of September 17, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $789 / T, up US $36 / T or 4.78% month on month from September 10.

In terms of crude oil, hurricane IDA has a great impact on U.S. oil and gas production, and the recovery of oil and gas production is slow. In addition, U.S. crude oil inventory and refined oil inventory have decreased, and the international oil price has shown an overall upward trend this week. On September 10, Brent rose $2.42 / barrel, or 3.32%; WTI rose $2.25/barrel, or 3.23%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week. The price of domestic goods was 14266.67 yuan / ton, down 1.15% from last week and 20% from the same period last year. The domestic TDI market is waiting to be sorted out, the on-site trading atmosphere is light, the downstream demand has not increased, the equipment of many domestic TDI factories is overhauled, and the supplier has no inventory pressure for the time being. However, the downstream transaction of the terminal is not smooth, the downstream follows up rationally, just needs to buy, and the operator’s mentality is mainly waiting to see.

In terms of PX market, in terms of PX market, the trend of domestic PX was temporarily stable this week, with the price of 7100 yuan / ton, an increase of 54.35% over the same period last year. As of September 17, the closing prices in Asia were USD 894-896 / T FOB Korea and USD 912-914 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, with the recovery of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, the oil price may fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

Under the “double control” policy, the downstream operating rate of toluene is affected, and the demand for toluene may weaken again. Overall, the weak situation of toluene is difficult to change, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. Pay attention to the operating rate and demand of downstream units, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market trend on toluene price.