1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG on September 3 was 6026.67 yuan / ton, up 116.67 yuan from 5910 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 1.97% during the week, and 5926.67 yuan / ton on September 6, up 0.28% from last Monday (August 30) and 150.42% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Looking back last week, the domestic LNG market rose first and then fell, with an increase of about 2% during the week. At the beginning of the week, the auction of feed gas in the first half of September boosted the domestic liquid market, which continued to rise. Shaanxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and other places exceeded 6000 yuan. Since the middle of the week, the market continued to decline, but the decline was not large, still hovering around 6000 yuan. Recently, the liquid price continued to rise due to multiple positive supports, which was eye-catching in the off-season market. However, the downstream receiving capacity was limited, and the resistance psychology existed all the time. It was overwhelmed. Instead, it chose other energy, scattered some demand, reduced vehicle and industrial demand, and dragged down the high liquid price. However, under the support of cost, the decline was limited, and the short-term market stalled. At present, 5900-6200 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 5920-6190 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 5770-6090 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 5930-6090 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5800-6050 yuan / ton in Henan, 5750-5850 yuan / ton in Hebei and 6100-6150 yuan / ton in Shandong. The inlet gas price is about 4800-6150 yuan / ton. The domestic liquid price and imported gas price continued to rise in August.

Downstream products were mixed:

The negotiated price of methanol in the methanol market in southern Shandong is 2580 yuan / ton, and the factory provides cash exchange nearby. Linyi receives the local goods to negotiate the price to 2580 yuan / ton and sends them to cash exchange. There are few offers for logistics goods. The trading atmosphere was average.

For liquid ammonia, at present, the supply pressure of domestic liquid ammonia manufacturers is small, and the downstream demand has also improved. Most of them tentatively reported an increase. Superimposed on the impact of the continuous strength of urea and the boost of printing standards, the price of liquid ammonia still has room to rise in the short term.

Urea, the urea market in Shandong in the middle and early September may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, the demand for autumn fertilizer will be opened, compound fertilizer plants and large traders begin to take goods, the industrial demand has increased, there is also good news from the printing standard, and the market price may fluctuate slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that the domestic LNG market has stopped rising and turned down due to the drag of demand recently, but with the support of cost, the downward space is limited. It is expected to be sorted out at a high level in the short term and the price fluctuates slightly.