1、 Price data

As of June 27, the average factory price of domestic domestic refining and hydrotreating naphtha was 6883.33 yuan / ton, up 0.83% from 6826.67 yuan / ton on June 21. The actual transaction price of local hydrotreated naphtha was about 6900-7000 yuan / ton.

As of June 27, the average factory price of domestic straight run naphtha was 6763.33 yuan / ton, up 1.00% from 6696.67 yuan / ton on June 21. The actual transaction price of direct distillation naphtha was about 6700-6800 yuan / ton.

On June 27, the naphtha commodity index was 84.95, which was flat with yesterday, down 17.22% from 102.62 points (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and 101.11% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016（ Note: the cycle refers to September 1, 2012 to present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, naphtha prices rose slightly, the refining market this week has no inventory pressure, and international crude oil rose, which requires procurement as the main.

Upstream: the international crude oil price has risen, the international economy has gradually recovered, the vaccination in the United States is growing rapidly, the demand for crude oil in the United States is in a peak season, and the expectation of recovery of demand in Europe and the United States has boosted the crude oil market. In addition, OPEC + alliance continues to adhere to the measures of gradually resuming supply from June to July, Offsetting the risk of increased supply that could result from consensus reached in the US Iraq nuclear agreement to support oil prices.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, toluene price fell slightly this week and stabilized. On June 20, the price of toluene was 5801 yuan / ton, and on June 27, it was 5781 yuan / T, down 20 yuan / T from last week, or 0.34%. Mixed xylene rose slightly this week, with the price of mixed xylene of 5840 yuan / ton on June 20 and RMB 5880 / T on June 27, up 40 yuan / ton, or 0.68% from last week. In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price this week remained stable, with the price of 6500 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, 13 commodities in the energy sector rose month on month in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 25th week of 2021 (6.21-6.25), of which more than 5% of the commodities increased by 1, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 commodities were coking coal (6.35%), power coal (3.47%), coke (2.77%). There are three commodities falling on the same month, the first three products are dimethyl ether (-2.68%), petroleum coke (-2.41%), MTBE (-0.84%). This week, the average rise and fall was 1.12 per cent.

3、 Post market forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the international crude oil price is high in the near future and the cost of naphtha market is supported. Near the end of the month, the terminal and aromatics have just to be supported. The pressure on the refinery delivery is not large. It is expected that the price of naphtha refining will be stable in the near future, with some small fluctuations.