1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of toluene rose first and then fell this week, which was higher than that of last week. On May 9, the price of toluene was 5902 yuan / ton; On Sunday (May 16), the price was 5986.2 yuan / ton, up 84.2 yuan / ton or 1.43% from last week; It was 74.67% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Toluene rose first and then fell this week, and speculation continued in the first half of the week, with positive talks on the floor; In the second half of the week, with the increase of downstream maintenance, the weak gasoline blending market and other negative effects, coupled with the decrease of Sinopec’s listing price, the short market increased. In terms of external market, as of May 14, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 765 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton or 0.66% from May 7; The price of imported toluene in East China was 788 US dollars / ton, up 8 US dollars / ton, or 1.03%, from May 7.

In terms of crude oil, it was reported within the week that the colonial pipeline in the United States was forced to close due to hacker attacks, but the positive impact of the closure was short-lived, and the international oil price fell back after rising. The market is concerned about the impact of the Indian epidemic on demand recovery. On May 7, Brent rose 0.235 USD / barrel, or 0.34%; WTI rose 0.48 USD / barrel, or 0.74%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell, with domestic goods at 14533.33 yuan / ton, down 1.58% from last week and up 31.72% from the same period last year. The domestic market is weak and volatile, the attitude of the industry is bearish, the trading atmosphere is light, the downstream inquiry is low, the market price is different, and the delivery is not smooth.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 60% year on year. Recently, the domestic PTA market price has fallen sharply, and the downstream market is not good, which has a negative impact on the PX market. As of May 14, closing prices in Asia were 828-830 USD / T FOB Korea and 846-848 USD / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The crude oil market is full of uncertainty; The downstream follow-up is general, the downstream part of the device into the maintenance, demand weakened; But the outside news is still strong. The Ministry of Finance and other three departments jointly announced that from June 12, 2021, import consumption tax will be levied on some refined oil products. Toluene as gasoline blending raw material, or affected. Overall, toluene is expected to stop falling and rising. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene’s late arrival in Hong Kong and downstream demand changes on toluene price.