1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of soda ash was stable for the time being this week. From the beginning to the end of this month, the average market price in East China was 1752 yuan / ton, up 22.52% year on year. On May 5, the commodity index of light soda ash was 89.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.77% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 42.28% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business society, soda ash in East China has been operating steadily and dynamically, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda ash is about 1650-1750 yuan / ton. The domestic soda ash market is stable before the festival. The downstream glass mainly purchases soda ash on demand, and has resistance to high price soda ash. Generally speaking, today’s soda ash price continues to be adjusted. The total inventory of soda ash is large, but there is still uneven distribution. Recently, the overall start-up situation of manufacturers has not changed much, and most manufacturers are actively shipping.

Upstream and demand: upstream: the national raw salt market is mainly consolidated, and the market atmosphere is stable. Salt enterprises have sufficient inventory, and most of the downstream enterprises purchase on demand. It is expected that the short-term raw salt market will be stable for the time being. According to the monitoring of the downstream glass business agency, the price of glass rose this month. The average price of glass at the beginning of the month was 27.36 yuan / square meter, and the average price at the end of the month was 29.44 yuan / square meter. The price in this month rose by 7.6%. The price of petroleum coke in glass upstream rose; Soda prices were relatively stable, while LNG prices fell. Downstream in the real estate completion cycle, downstream traders and glass processing enterprises are more active in taking goods, and the order situation is acceptable. In the short term, there is no pressure on the inventory of the production enterprises, the glass market has good confidence, and the focus of transaction is relatively strong. However, the downstream glass is resistant to high price soda, and there is still a price game between the two sides.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in April 2021, there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 2 kinds of commodities falling, and 1 kind of commodities with zero rise and fall in the price list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities rising were calcium carbide (8.33%) and PVC (3.17%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 6.85%) and caustic soda (- 6.63%). The average rise and fall this month was – 0.4%.

Business analysts believe that: upstream: the national raw salt market consolidation, the market atmosphere is stable. Salt enterprises have sufficient inventory, and most of the downstream enterprises purchase on demand. It is expected that the short-term raw salt market will be stable for the time being. The price of downstream glass is rising, but there is still resistance to high price soda. The wait-and-see mentality is strong, and most of them are purchased on demand. According to the comprehensive forecast, the short-term domestic soda price is dominated by the short-term consolidation operation, and the specific needs of the downstream market.