1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated in a narrow range this week, with a slight drop. On March 28, the price of mixed xylene was 5487.5 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (April 4), the price was 5460 yuan / ton, down 27.5 yuan / ton or 0.5% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s mixed xylene price adjustment range is – 200 / + 100 (yuan / ton). The inventory of ports in East and South China decreased slightly. At present, the downstream demand is stable, and the trend of mixed xylene is obviously affected by the crude oil at the cost level. Recently, the crude oil fluctuates greatly, and the mixed xylene lacks clear upward momentum. In terms of external market, as of April 1, the price of South Korea’s imported mixed xylene was 714 US dollars / ton, down 19 US dollars / ton or 2.59% on March 26, and the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 730 US dollars / ton, down 20 US dollars / ton or 2.67% on March 26.

In terms of crude oil, OPEC + decided to gradually increase crude oil production from May, and Saudi Arabia will gradually reduce the number of additional voluntary production cuts. On March 26, Brent fell $1.61 per barrel, or 2.52%; WTI rose $0.52 per barrel, or 0.85%.

Downstream, PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week fell compared with last week, the price was 6400 yuan / ton, down 4.48% compared with last week, up 36.17% compared with the beginning of the year, up 48.84% compared with the same period last week. The production capacity of domestic p-xylene plants is mainly concentrated in East China. Sinopec and private enterprises have started their plants normally, with an on-site operation rate of more than 90%. The on-site supply is normal, and the goods are in good condition. As of April 1, closing prices in Asia were 784-786 USD / T FOB Korea and 802-804 USD / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, the price of PTA in East China surged higher this week. On Sunday (April 4), the price was 4430 yuan / ton, up 0.73% from last week and 34.38% from the same period last year. As of April 2, PTA operation rate was 79.4%, down from last week. External offer: as of April 2, the mainstream quotation of CFR China PTA for external offer was US $645 / T.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox fell this week compared with last week. On Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 5400 yuan / ton, down 5.26% compared with last week and up 42.11% compared with the same period last year. Affected by the centralized arrival of import and inland ship cargo, the port inventory of o-xylene in the terminal continued to grow, and the main port in East China’s o-xylene inventory exceeded the 60000 tons mark, reaching the highest level in the past five years. There is little room for the price of domestic o-benzene to fall, but the port inventory is high, so the price of o-benzene is difficult to rise; the downstream demand is obviously declining, so the port o-benzene inventory is difficult to fall, and the support for the rise of o-benzene is insufficient

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

At present, the price of mixed xylene mainly fluctuates with the trend of crude oil, focusing on the latest progress of European epidemic and vaccination, the impact of US dollar exchange rate and US debt on crude oil price. We should pay attention to the impact of xylene plant operation, arrival volume and downstream demand change on the price.