1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the overall price of caustic soda in March was the main actor. The average market price at the beginning of the month was about 457.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was about 490 yuan / ton, with an increase of 7.1%, and a decrease of 9.68% compared with the same period last year. On March 29, the commodity index of caustic soda was 70.50, which was the same as yesterday. Compared with the highest point 206.87 in the cycle (November 14, 2017), it decreased by 65.92%, and increased by 8.28% compared with the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

In March, the price of caustic soda was the main factor. The reason for the rising price of caustic soda is that the factory has concentrated maintenance and the supply side is slightly tight. At present, the main stream of 32% caustic soda is 390-500 yuan / ton. In Hebei area, the market of caustic soda fluctuates in a narrow range. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 460-600 yuan / ton. Jiangsu market is about 550-650 yuan / ton, Guangdong market is about 640-650 yuan / ton. Data show that last week, the capacity of domestic caustic soda maintenance units involved 2.26 million tons, accounting for about 5% of the national caustic soda capacity. The increase in maintenance continued to support market fundamentals.

The market performance of liquid chlorine in the upstream of caustic soda is fair this week, and the demand in the downstream is supported. Generally speaking, it will be mainly operated in the later stage or strongly. From the downstream of caustic soda, after the festival, the terminal demand of alumina, papermaking and other industries improved slightly, and the demand for caustic soda increased, which boosted the low rebound of caustic soda price. However, the price of caustic soda is mainly a wait-and-see attitude, and both sides enter the game.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 12th week of 2021 (3.22-3.26), there were 0 kinds of commodities rising, 3 kinds of commodities falling, and 2 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 8.91%), PVC (- 2.79%) and hydrochloric acid (- 2.44%). The average rise and fall this week was – 2.83%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the caustic soda enterprises are not warm in shipment, and the downstream receiving situation is weak and stable, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The buyer and the seller play a price game, and it is expected that caustic soda will continue to fluctuate slightly in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.