Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic caprolactam price has risen in the near future, and some brands have been back to high level. As of November 24, the average price quoted by caprolactam sample enterprises of the business community was 10400 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.12% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

On the upstream side, benzene continued to follow the trend of styrene last week, with a wide rise and then a small decline, and the overall price rose. According to the big list data of business associations, the listed price of pure benzene was 3950-4050 yuan / ton on November 15, and 4150-4550 yuan / ton on November 22, up 4.88% from last week. At present, the main factor affecting the trend of pure benzene is styrene. Recently, the total inventory of styrene in East China has dropped sharply, which has led to short covering, and the price of pure benzene has risen with styrene. However, with the shutdown of some styrene downstream units, bulls actively took profits and the focus of negotiation fell. In addition, styrene futures fell one after another, and pure benzene fell with it. In the short term, styrene will continue to affect the pure benzene market, but with the arrival of the traditional off-season, the downstream demand will be weakened. It is expected that pure benzene will follow the shock finishing of styrene in the near future.

The price of pure benzene in the upstream is high, which supports the cost of caprolactam, and the price of caprolactam has increased recently. Far upstream international crude oil also rose, benefiting the products of the chemical industry chain. At present, caprolactam inventory continues to be low. Although the operating rate of downstream PA6 is relatively high, the current price of PA6 has dropped, which affects market confidence and hinders the enthusiasm of downstream factories to replenish goods. In addition, the current caprolactam operating rate is high, with more than 80% of the operating load, which may limit the future market growth.

Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that the current upstream pure benzene price is high, the caprolactam cost side support is acceptable. In terms of supply, the inventory is low and the supply is in short supply. In the later stage, some enterprises have maintenance plans, and the shortage pattern may continue. Multiple positive push up the spot price of caprolactam, but the upstream and downstream trend of weakening, it is expected that the caprolactam market will gradually stabilize in the near future.