1、 Price trend
According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG was 2430 yuan / ton on August 31, down 1.35% from the beginning of the month, 18.27% compared with the same period last year, and the maximum amplitude of this month was 3.88%.
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In August, the domestic LNG market as a whole went down, rising slightly and falling sharply. The liquid price rose slightly in the first ten days and then continued to fall. In the last ten days, it rose slightly, but only lasted for a few days, and then entered the downward channel, with a decrease of 1.35% in the whole month. In the first ten days of this month, due to the increase of overhaul liquid plants in some regions, the output decreased, the on-site supply became tight, the shipment was smooth, and the contradiction between supply and demand was improved. The price of the gas in the superimposed way increased, driving the market to push up the mood, and the overall trend of liquid price showed an upward trend. However, due to the off-season factors, the downstream demand is insufficient to follow up, and the liquid price drops sharply around the middle of the year. In the last ten days of the year, due to the low price in the early stage and the reduction of supply in some regions, the delivery of liquid plants was relatively smooth, and the demand side was also improved. The liquid plants were boosted by this, and they had a tentative rise, but it was difficult to turn the tide around, and fell again at the end of the month. On the whole, in August, although the domestic LNG was actively looking for the potential and rising, the off-season constraints did not subside, and the liquid price rise space was limited, so the rise was less than the decline, and the market was still weak.
On the supply side, the overall operating rate in August was around 60%. This month, Huineng, Yangling, Zhongjing, Shouyang, Paisi, Mengxin and other large capacity enterprises shut down and stopped selling, which was good for the rising liquid price. At the same time, Guanghui Naomaohu, Sentai, Yida, Inner Mongolia and other enterprises started normal sales, and the operating rate increased slightly near the end of the month. The arrival date of this month was more intensive, which was reduced than before, but the market supply The demand is still abundant.
On the demand side, there was little change in the demand side in August, which was still in the off-season consumption. The demand for gas stations was stable. In addition, the rainy weather in some areas made the demand for vehicles not high. Near the end of the month, the downstream demand was slightly improved, and the sales volume of gas stations increased, which provided support for the rise of liquid price. However, the industrial gas consumption was not obvious. As the pipeline gas price was significantly lower than the LNG price, part of the demand was dispersed The downstream demand is stable with signs of recovery, but the pattern of supply exceeding demand is still in place.
According to the NDRC, the apparent consumption of natural gas in July was 24.63 billion cubic meters, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year. Natural gas production was 14.3 billion cubic meters, up 3.2% year on year. According to customs statistics, in July, the import volume of natural gas was 10.14 billion cubic meters, down 6.4% year on year. From January to July, the apparent consumption of natural gas was 180.24 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Natural gas production was 109.25 billion cubic meters, up 9% year on year. According to customs statistics, from January to July, the import volume of natural gas was 76.88 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 2%.
According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of September 2, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 2430 yuan / ton, the price in Inner Mongolia was mostly in the range of 2350-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi was 2490 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was 2600 yuan / ton, that in Xinjiang was 2300 yuan / ton, and that in Ningxia was 2370 yuan / ton.
Enterprise capacity rose and fell from August 31 to August 1
Inner Mongolia Shitai 550000 m3 / D 2400 yuan / T 2430 yuan / T – 30 yuan
Star energy 1 million cubic meters / day 2470 yuan / ton 2460 yuan / ton – 10
Inner Mongolia Sentai: 1.2 million cubic meters / day: 2420 yuan / ton: 2520 yuan / ton – 100 yuan
Zhongyuan green energy: 3 million cubic meters / day, 2420 yuan / ton, 2500 yuan / ton – 80 yuan
Shengdazi Prefecture: 1 million cubic meters / day 2470 yuan / ton 2450 yuan / ton 20 yuan
Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2950 yuan / ton: 2750 yuan / ton: 200 yuan
Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 2360 yuan / ton 2500 yuan / ton – 140 yuan
Qinshui Xinao — 2600 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 200 yuan
Xinjiang Qinghua: 300000 cubic meters / day: 3000 yuan / ton: 3000 yuan / ton
Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million m3 / day 1600 yuan / ton 2150 yuan / ton – 550 yuan
At the end of the month, most of the downstream liquid ammonia Market stabilized, and the current round of rising market basically ended. However, it is expected that the ammonia volume will remain moderate in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will consolidate at a high level in the near future, and the trend of various regions may appear certain differentiation. The market is mainly affected by large plants. With the recovery of plants in Shandong, the ammonia quantity will gradually accumulate, and the price may suffer upward To a certain extent, it is expected that the price of liquid ammonia will maintain range fluctuation.
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Urea, the market fluctuated slightly, fell to. The upstream liquid ammonia has risen slightly in recent years, and the cost support is general. However, the demand for downstream agriculture is light, the starting load of compound fertilizer and plate enterprises is not high, the market trading atmosphere is weakened, and the middlemen are cautious in receiving goods.
At present, the market of dichloromethane in Shandong Province is at a high level and firm. The overall operation of enterprises has reached a high level, and the market supply is expected to continue to increase. As the price rises to a high level and the downstream market demand is flat, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the industry, and some of the receivers have a certain bearish mentality. It is expected to maintain stable operation in a short period of time, and it is necessary to pay attention to the inventory situation of enterprises.
3、 Future forecast
LNG analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic LNG market as a whole went down in August, rising slightly and falling sharply. Although maintenance is good to boost, but the overall market supply is abundant, demand follow-up is general. In September, the downstream demand is expected to turn better. In addition, the continuous rising of intake gas will boost the atmosphere of domestic LNG market. In the short term, the price will still fluctuate in a narrow range, and the future market will be better.
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