1、 Price trend
According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the listed price of pure benzene was 2950-3400 yuan / ton on July 1, and 3230-3400 yuan / ton on July 31 (the average price was 3370 yuan / ton), which was 210 yuan / ton higher than that on July 1, with an increase of 6.65% this month. The highest price of this month appeared on July 31, with an average price of 3370 yuan / ton; the lowest price was from July 3 to 4, with a price difference of 250 yuan / ton.
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2、 Analysis and comment
In July, the price of pure benzene fluctuated in the first ten days and the middle ten days, and the price rose sharply in the last ten days. Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene at the beginning of this month, and increased the listing price three times in the last ten days, with a total increase of 50 yuan / ton to 3350 yuan / ton this month. At the beginning of the month, the weak market continued in June, the downstream demand was insufficient to follow up, and the port inventory remained high; coupled with the unknown public health events, the spot transaction in the market was light, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. In the last ten days, the external price rebounded obviously, and the enterprises made up the short at the end of the month, and the pressure of delivery was released rapidly, and the price rose sharply.
The operating rate of petroleum benzene rose in July compared with the beginning of the month. The port inventory of pure benzene rose for 4 consecutive months. This month, the port inventory rose nearly 20000 tons, and the high inventory level dragged down the market of pure benzene.
In July, the international oil price fluctuated upward due to OPEC’s production reduction and demand recovery. However, the aggravation of public health events in the United States has affected the market mentality and greatly restricted the rise of oil prices. In July, WTI oil price basically fluctuated at $40 per barrel, while Brent oil price fluctuated above $40 per barrel. Compared with June 30, Brent oil price increased by 1.055 USD / barrel, or 2.52%; WTI oil price increased by 1.23 USD / barrel, or 3.13%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 35.77%; WTI oil price decreased by 33.24%.
In July, the market of pure benzene rebounded, especially in the late ten days. The reduction of the price difference of pure benzene between Asia and the United States is beneficial to the later domestic arrivals. On July 30, Korea imported 450 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, an increase of 53.33 US dollars / ton, or 13.44% over the previous month; and that of East China was US $445 / T, up 47.5 US dollars / ton, or 11.95% higher than that of the previous month
Downstream, styrene: styrene fluctuated lower this month. On July 1, the price of styrene in Shandong was 5400 yuan / ton, and on July 31, it was 5333.33 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 1.23%. The highest price of this month appeared on July 7 and 8, with the price of 5466.67 yuan / ton.
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Aniline: on July 1, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4300-4390 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4500 yuan / ton; on July 31, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4200-4330 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.53% this month. The price of aniline is obviously affected by supply and demand.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of raw materials, from August 1, OPEC and its allies will reduce production by 7.7 million barrels per day from 9.7 million barrels per day. However, it is difficult for crude oil prices to fall sharply again. It is expected that crude oil will continue to fluctuate in the short term.
The port inventory continues to be at a high level, but at present, the external disk is at a high level, and the subsequent arrival volume is expected to decrease, and the inventory pressure is reduced, which supports the market mentality. In addition, the operating rate of downstream units may increase in the later period and some new capacity will be put into operation. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will continue to rise in August.
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