Commodity index: on June 27, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 85.66, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.04% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.14% from 85.54, the lowest point on June 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: Business Agency (100) ppi.com ）The monitoring data shows that the overall market of Polyacrylamide in June has a small amplitude dynamic potential; compared with the market at the end of May, the price of polyacrylamide (cation, molecular weight 12 million) in June stopped falling and remained stable until now. On June 1, 2020, the market mainstream quotation will be about 14000 yuan / ton, and on June 28, the market mainstream quotation will be about 14020 yuan / ton, with a callback rate of 0.14%, slightly adjusted.

Factor analysis:

First, from the perspective of industrial chain. Upstream acrylonitrile: from January to June 2020, the domestic market price first fell sharply, and then continued to callback to a certain extent. From the second half of April, it stopped falling at 6350 yuan / ton. After stabilizing for half a month, it started to rebound from May. The half month quotation went up by 800 yuan / ton to 7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in the second half was about 8000 yuan / ton. From June to now, after several small rebounds, it has stabilized at about 8550 yuan / ton in the middle of the year, and the quotation continues to rise in the last ten days. At present, the quotation of mainstream domestic manufacturers is about 8800-8900 yuan / ton. In terms of devices, four production lines of acrylonitrile unit load of sippon Petrochemical resumed on June 10, and the annual capacity of 260000 tons of units of Zhejiang Petrochemical was put into trial production on June 23. At present, the main domestic manufacturers of propylene The production of nitrile is normal. Downstream demand: in 2020, the polyacrylamide business is very difficult, and the industry generally does not have much expectation on the market, which is much worse than that in 2019. For the remaining half year of 2020, it means that the market may not be hot.

Secondly, from the perspective of manufacturer’s production. It is found that one of the main producing areas of polyacrylamide, Henan Province, has normal production and high inventory. The price of the main product specifications rebounded slightly in the second half of the month, and the basic stability is maintained: the price of cation and molecular weight 12 million is 14000-15000 yuan / ton; the price of anion and molecular weight 10 million is 8000-9000 yuan / ton, the price of molecular weight 12 million is 8800-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of molecular weight 14 million solid particles is reported Price: 9400-10000 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 16 million solid particles: 9800-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 18 million solid particles: 10400-11000 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 18-20 million powder: 12000-12500 yuan / ton, non-ionic: 12000-13000 yuan / ton, and some specifications: 300-400 yuan / ton. The sales pressure of the manufacturers and distributors is still huge. The daily price fluctuation is a small range of flexible price adjustment, which has little impact on the transaction. Moreover, the enterprise said that the current price has reached the low price, and there is little room for downward movement.

Third, from the perspective of industry. Since 2020, the prosperity of environmental water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in the main production area stopped production and delayed resumption of work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area gradually returned to work. In March, the logistics returned to normal, mainly consuming inventory. In April, the manufacturer’s survival was normal, the raw material cost was partially reduced and the demand was weak, resulting in the high inventory of the manufacturer. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery charge, the price of raw materials such as acrylonitrile rose, the factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there was a lot of inventory; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask” industrial chain relationship, the capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers fell this month, which more directly led to the firmness of acrylonitrile price. Since June, the price of acrylonitrile has been stable after rebounding, but the range is relatively small. According to the introduction of the manufacturer, whether or not the raw materials are hoarded has different impact on the production cost. From the perspective of the whole industry, the demand difference is the fatal injury of the market. From the last ten days to now, the market is still that or that dull.

Future forecast:

According to the analysis of business association, the price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile has been rising since June, and the downstream demand end is still stagnant. The pressure of enterprise shipment is large, and the profit space is much smaller than that in 2019. The manufacturer said that the price is at a low level and it is in a state of low drop. For the future market, the expectation of small fluctuation is still maintained, and the possibility of big wave market is almost impossible.