1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic ethanol market continued to be strong. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic ethanol market price at the beginning of the week was 5587 yuan / ton, while the domestic ethanol market price at the weekend was 5750 yuan / ton, up 2.94% in the week, 10.31% month on month and 10.11% year on year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the domestic alcohol market price is firm this week. The price of alcohol in Shandong is partly up, the quotation of enterprises is up, and the export order is weak; the price of anhydrous alcohol in the northern Jiangsu alcohol market in East China is down, others remain stable, and the shipment of enterprises is average; the price of corn alcohol in Jilin in Northeast China is up, the inventory of enterprises is low, and the quotation of enterprises is firm; the price of alcohol in Heilongjiang in Northeast China is up, the price of corn raw materials is high, and the quotation of large factories is up Adjustment, low inventory, low price for small factories; Henan alcohol market consolidation, general enterprise shipment; South China Guangxi alcohol market firm, increased export orders, molasses alcohol order shipment, price hike, anhydrous ethanol enterprise inventory low, price firm; Guangdong alcohol market high offer, recently there are general level goods from other places to Guangdong port, but basically in advance The sales order is the main one, and the price will rise when the inventory is limited; the market in Anhui Province is stable and wait-and-see, the price of raw corn is high, the orders of enterprises are shipped, and the inventory of enterprises is low; the alcohol market in Yunnan Province is generally sold, and the market is slightly increased; the alcohol market in Sichuan Province is not the same, the inventory of enterprises is low, and the orders are mainly shipped.

Logistics: this week, the logistics price rose, the Northeast large factory centralized delivery and less regional return. The freight of Daqing Shandong Zibo, Heilongjiang is 350-400 yuan / ton, Heilongjiang laha Suzhou 480-490 yuan / ton, Anhui Nanchang 250 yuan / ton, Henan Sichuan 500 yuan / ton, Guangxi Qinzhou Guangdong Dongguan 260 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, corn: the spot price of corn in China is rising steadily, and many manufacturers have difficulty in listing to receive grain, so they can only raise the purchase price, but the volume is still average. Many purchasers said that they received less grain from the grassroots or drying tower. At present, the main price of the manufacturers is the contract price, the profits are infinitely compressed, and the pressure of the manufacturers is large. The temporary reserve auction policy has not been issued yet, and the auction should be postponed at a certain rate. The traders have a firm attitude towards price fixing, and the spot price continues to strengthen. The purchase mentality of southern port feed enterprises is cautious, and the delivery is mainly based on the execution of contracts. The shipping schedule shows the increase of import arrivals this month, which has a certain inhibition on the market mentality. In terms of spring ploughing, spring ploughing preparation is basically carried out. At present, rain and snow in some areas have certain impact on the sowing schedule.

Ethyl acetate: this week, the domestic market of ethyl acetate is optimistic. The price of raw materials acetic acid and ethanol continues to be high, which provides strong support for the cost of ethyl acetate. The supplier follows the trend of raw materials rising, and the downstream replenishment after the festival is positive. For the rising trend, the purchase of ethyl acetate is smooth, and the overall transaction of the market is optimistic. However, the substantial demand of domestic ethyl acetate Market is limited, the downstream rational purchase support returns to rationality, traders are still active in hoarding, and maintain the small increase of ethyl acetate market stage. Near the end of the week, Shandong’s mainstream suppliers did not offer, the market can circulate a small amount of goods, the surrounding suppliers continued to report higher, driving the ethyl acetate Market high firm.

3、 Future forecast

Raw material corn is waiting for the news of temporary storage auction to land, the price remains high, the inventory of large northeast factories is low, order delivery (domestic middleman or export) small factories are reluctant to sell at low prices, some enterprises are waiting for more vehicles in front of them, and the short-term price of freight remains high; the delivery price of northeast goods in East China is high, the raw materials continue to rise, the price remains high, and the export orders are reduced Weak, it is expected that the short-term price will remain high under the support of good supply side, while Henan will remain high due to the increase of short-term pick-up and high raw materials, but it is possible that the price will remain weak after the delivery is completed; the South will stay high under the support of good supply side in the short term, but at present, the price in South China has risen to a high level, and there is little room for continuous upward. Business alcohol analysts predict that the short-term ethanol market price is still possible to rise.