1、 Price trend:

In April 2020, crude benzene market fell in shock. The factory price in North China was 2668.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2250 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 15.68% monthly.

On April 30, crude benzene commodity index was 35.23, which was the same as yesterday, 73.28% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 15.36% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: in April 2020, the crude benzene market fell in shock. In the first half of the month, the market of pure benzene rebounded rapidly. Each factory raised its listing price continuously. The increase of refining price was more significant everywhere. Under the influence of multiple favorable factors such as high market speculation, the market of pure benzene rose sharply. The crude benzene continued to rise in the first half of the month following the trend of pure benzene. The market promoted a strong atmosphere, and traders actively entered the market. A week long consolidation period began in mid April. On May 20th, the contract price of WTI plummeted to a negative value, and then the external market of pure benzene fell sharply. The arrival of goods at the port continued to increase. The atmosphere of domestic market negotiation turned weak, and the price of crude benzene fell. Since April, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises continued to decline to less than 40%. Although some units resumed operation in mid April, they were subject to cost pressure Due to insufficient support for crude benzene demand, crude benzene enters the downward channel. As of the 30th, the quotation range of crude benzene in Shandong Province is 2100-2200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 2150 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: crude oil: this month OPEC + Member States reached a joint production reduction agreement to support the oil market. However, crude oil inventory increased rapidly, while storage capacity decreased significantly, and WTI even fell to a negative value for the first time in history this month. Compared with March 31, Brent oil price in April was up $1.995/barrel, up 11.29%; WTI oil price in April was down $2.66/barrel, down 10.85%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 47.095 USD / barrel, or 79.54%; WTI oil price decreased by 38.92 USD / barrel, or 64.04%. Pure benzene: the port inventory of pure benzene continued to accumulate this month, but the increase decreased. After this month’s Qingming Festival holiday, the pure benzene market was affected by crude oil and external market, bottom reading rebounded, and downstream purchasing was positive, with a rebound of more than 30%. The spot supply in Shandong is tight, and the price increase is more obvious. After two weeks of hoarding, the downstream procurement speed slowed down significantly. In the late ten days, crude oil plummeted and pure benzene began to decline. Downstream products: the price of styrene in Shandong Province was 4650 yuan / ton on April 1, and 5100 yuan / ton on April 30, with a monthly increase of 9.68%. In the early stage, stimulated by favorable crude oil and supply and demand, styrene prices rose driven by rising sentiment, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was good. In the later stage, the weak raw material surface and the restart of domestic styrene plant gradually increased, which made the situation of supply exceeding demand hard to change in a short time, and the price declined.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in April 2020, there are 39 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 26 kinds of commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 29.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase rate are acetone (77.02%), acrylic acid (21.76%) and hydrogenated benzene (20.86%). There are 45 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 21 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 23.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are ethylene (- 31.64%), butadiene (- 24.14%) and hydrochloric acid (- 22.37%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.37%.

3、 Trend Forecast:

Many parties have also made some achievements in promoting the process of production reduction agreement. However, in the short term, it is unable to offset the negative impact of the sharp contraction of demand, and the oil market cannot get rid of the situation of excess supply and demand. Short term crude oil prices are expected to remain low. Most of the lower reaches are in the stage of inventory digestion, and the trading atmosphere in the field is light, mainly waiting for the later crude oil and the trend of the outer market. It is expected that the aftermarket pressure of crude benzene will remain.