1、 Melamine price trend:

(Figure: P value curve of melamine product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the bulk list of the business agency, the melamine market has been under a narrow pressure recently. At present, the operating rate of melamine is less than 60%, but the downstream demand is weak, the enterprise’s shipment is blocked, the inventory is increased, the contradiction between market supply and demand is prominent, and the focus of negotiation is loose. As of April 14, the average price of melamine enterprises was 5133.33 yuan / ton, down 1.28% compared with April 13 and 3.75% compared with April 1. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4600 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 4800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 4800 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 4900 yuan / ton. On the 14th, the mainstream price of melamine market in China was around 4600-5400 yuan / ton.

On April 14, the melamine commodity index was 55.20, down 0.71 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 44.80% from the peak of 100.00 on September 18, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industrial chain: on April 14, the main factory price of small particle urea in Shandong Province was temporarily stable: Ruixing Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1700 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable; Mingshui Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1750 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable; Yangmei plain offered 1700 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable. As a whole, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province is slightly higher today, and the actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. The enthusiasm of the downstream receiving is weak, and the price of urea is expected to fluctuate slightly in the future.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, on April 14, 2020, there are 23 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical sector, including 6 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase are acrylic acid (16.93%), ox (10.53%) and propane (10.43%). There are 11 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were propylene (- 23.48%), sulfur (- 4.26%) and cyclohexanone (- 2.41%). The average price of this day is 0.7%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to melamine analysts of the business association, the downstream demand is weak, and the short-term market lacks strong positive factors. It is expected that the melamine market will be dominated by weak operation in the short term.