1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on March 16, the average ex factory price of 64% granular diammonium in China was 2200 yuan / ton, and on March 20, the average ex factory price of 64% granular diammonium in China was 2225 yuan / ton, rising steadily this week. So far, the DAP commodity index on March 23 is 66.37, which is the same as yesterday, 35.55% lower than 102.98 (2011-10-08), the highest point in the cycle, and 1.14% higher than 65.62, the lowest point on March 4, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: the return to work rate of Hubei enterprises has increased significantly. At present, 64% of main diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2200-2250 yuan / ton, 64% of main diammonium in Shandong Province 2500 yuan / ton, 64% of main diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2450-2500 yuan / ton, and 64% of main diammonium in Anhui Province 2200-2250 yuan / ton. The price of arriving station in Heilongjiang is 2500-2550 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week, the domestic phosphorus ore market fluctuated slightly. Based on several sample areas, the reference price of the initial high-end 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 330-440 yuan / ton. The sulfur production price in East China was 653.33 yuan / ton, up 1.03%. The downstream enterprises related to sulfur industry resumed work, and the domestic sulfur market rose slightly.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 11th week of 2020 (3.16-3.20), there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are isopropanol (26.40%), acetic anhydride (6.37%) and dichloromethane (5.38%). There are 39 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 17.60%), chloroform (- 15.79%) and crude benzene (- 14.52%). This week’s average was – 1.62%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of diammonium phosphate of business association think that the price tends to be stable after the recent rise of diammonium phosphate. The enterprise’s operating rate keeps rising, the spot supply is sufficient, and the number of new downstream purchase orders decreases. It is expected that the price rise of diammonium phosphate will be postponed in the later stage and the stable operation will be the main trend.