1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has shown a downward trend in recent days. The average price of ethylene on the 19th was 653.25 US dollars / ton, down 5.39% compared with the price of 690.50 US dollars / ton on the 16th, and the current price is down 35.69% year on year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: ethylene has declined in recent days. Asian ethylene market prices fell sharply. As of the 19th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $620-630 / T, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $565-575 / T. The market price of ethylene in Europe fell. As of 19, the market price of ethylene in Europe was US $763-773 / T for FD northwest Europe and US $701-705 / T for CIF northwest Europe. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region has declined. As of the 19th, the price is US $253-259 / ton. Overall, in recent years, the market of ethylene in Europe and the United States has been in a downward trend, constantly refreshing the lowest point, and the whole ethylene market has been in a downward trend. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on March 18, New York Mercantile futures exchange West Texas light oil futures settlement price in April 2020 was $20.37 per barrel, down $6.85 or 24.4% compared with the previous trading day; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil futures settlement price in May 2020 was $24.88 per barrel, down $3.85 or 13.4% compared with the previous trading day. At present, there is no bad news in the crude oil market The supply side and the demand side tend to be negative oil prices, the global financial market risk increases, the risk asset price downward becomes the trend, which can not play a supporting role in the price of ethylene, and the external market of ethylene keeps falling again. The downstream styrene price also fell sharply, and the ethanol market was consolidated after a sharp drop, which could not support the ethylene price, and there is a possibility of further follow-up.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the ethylene analyst of business Chemical Branch, the prevalence of public health events has intensified people’s blockade measures against the government to curb the spread of the epidemic, which may lead to a sharp contraction of economic activities, unable to support the price of ethylene, so the data analyst of business club predicted that the price of ethylene would keep a narrow decline in the future.