Commodity index: on March 12, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 92.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.94% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.67% from 91.59, the lowest point on March 9, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on March 13, 2020, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market is about 14600-15800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (anion) market is about 8500-10000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain:

Upstream: from January to March 2020, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market will be lowered. At the beginning of January, the quotation was about 11200 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 100 yuan / ton for many times; in the middle of the year, the quotation continued to decline slightly, which was reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 10650 yuan / ton for three times; by the end of the decade, the decline had been about 4000 yuan / ton, with a fluctuation of about 20%; on February 21, the mainstream price was about 9500 yuan / ton, decreased by 200 yuan / ton on 24, decreased by 300 yuan / ton on 27, and decreased by 150 yuan / ton to 8850 yuan / ton on 28 , 1750-1800 yuan / ton lower than before, about 17% lower than before; in March, acrylonitrile continued to reduce, to 8100 yuan / ton on March 10, the price was stable on November 12, and has dropped about 750 yuan / ton so far this month.

Downstream: at present, the impact of downstream water treatment project construction enterprises has not been completely eliminated, the construction will be gradually restored, and the demand will gradually increase in time.

Manufacturer: Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, started to resume production on February 20 or so, with normal production and continuous consumption of inventory. It is reported that the current transportation price has returned to normal, the price of raw materials is down, and the cost of polyacrylamide manufacturers has been reduced.

Industry: in late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires that: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production and treatment before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. The production was resumed for ten days in August and stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the shutdown was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection was strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi were required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production. During the Spring Festival holiday from January to February 20, 2020, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work. At present, the logistics in March is back to normal, and the inventory is constantly consumed. It is reported that the logistics cost in some regions has increased since, and the quotation has increased during the period of less vehicle return to work due to the delay in construction. However, after most logistics enterprises go to work recently, the transportation cost has been reduced, the downstream construction has been carried out successively, the demand has recovered, and the shipment is normal.

Future market forecast: the analysis of the business community shows that the price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile continues to decrease. The current price has been a low price for many years. The cost of polyacrylamide has been greatly reduced. In addition, the transportation cost has been reduced. The price of manufacturers with high inventory is slightly preferential. The downstream construction will resume gradually, and the demand will increase gradually. However, in the case that the impact of the epidemic has not been completely relieved at present, the demand impact still exists. The market price of polyacrylamide may be adjusted in the future, but it is more likely to be stable.