I. price trend
According to the data monitoring of business agency, last week’s zinc market continued to be depressed, and zinc prices fell in shock. As of November 22, the price of zinc was 18546.67 yuan / ton, down 0.64% from 18666.67 yuan / ton on November 17, down 14.97% from the same period last year. Overall, zinc market performance was weak last week.
II. Market trend analysis
Price trend of zinc in LME Market
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As can be seen from the figure, zinc prices in LME futures market fell in shock last week. As of November 22, LME zinc ingot offered 2313 US dollars / ton, compared with the zinc price of 2383 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the week (November 18), the zinc price dropped 70 US dollars / ton, and the zinc price fell sharply. The zinc price in LME market fell, which was bad for the domestic zinc market. The domestic zinc price lost the support of rising power, and the zinc market in the future was bad.
Decrease of zinc stock in Shanghai Futures Market
Time, inventory (ton), change (ton), trader, position holder / change
November 1 29322 52 303718 438130 / – 5360
November 4 29295-27 333120 451102 / 12972
November 5 29168-127 350116 461152 / 10050
November 6 28866-302 577994 472002 / 10850
November 7 28515-351 411288 488166 / 16164
November 8 27859-656 341340 497428 / 9262
November 11 27334-525 420084 501400 / 3972
November 12 27716 382 359414 482244 / – 19156
November 13 27391-325 467708 482260 / 16
November 14 27988 597 572272 511566 / 29306
November 15 28688 700 407240 501022 / – 10544
November 18 28995 307 452246 493782 / – 3610
November 19 28516-479 422480 500310 / 6528
November 20 27037 – 1479 356808 486646 / – 13664
November 21 22458-4579 618258 544690 / 58044
November 22 21958-500 390974 537312 / – 7378
As can be seen from the figure, as of November 22, the stock of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market was 21958 tons, a sharp drop from 29322 tons at the beginning of November. In November, the stock of zinc ingot in Shanghai futures market fell, the positions of zinc ingot in futures market changed frequently, and the trading in zinc market was active, which had a positive impact on the rise of zinc market in the future.
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Zinc import and export in 2019
It can be seen from the table that in 2019, the export volume of zinc in the same period rose sharply, while the import volume fell slightly. The total import volume of zinc and its products is still far greater than the export volume of zinc and its products. The increase in the export of domestic zinc market is good for the domestic zinc market, but the total import volume of zinc market is still far greater than the export volume. The demand of zinc market is mainly domestic demand. The increase in the export volume is not enough to make up for the downturn of domestic zinc market. The zinc market has a certain upward momentum but insufficient momentum.
III. future prospects
Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business club, thinks: in the international market, LME zinc price fell sharply last week, and the negative pressure on the international zinc market increased, which is obviously negative for the domestic zinc market; in the domestic zinc market, the stock of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market decreased, the supply surplus of zinc market eased, the trading of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market increased actively, and there are certain positive signs in the future of zinc market. But generally speaking, the activity of zinc ingot trading in futures market is becoming stronger and the export volume is increasing, which is not enough to offset the damage to zinc price caused by the month by month increase of zinc output. The demand of zinc market is low, the zinc market is still in oversupply, the downward pressure of zinc market is still greater than the upward momentum, and it is expected that zinc price will fluctuate slightly in the future.
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