I. price trend
Adipic acid market trend chart
According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, in the first week of November (11.4-8), the domestic adipic acid still maintained a weak market. Although the price stopped falling, it still remained in a depressed situation. This week’s rise and fall basically remained unchanged, and the mainstream quotation by the end of the week was generally 8000-8200 yuan / ton.
II. Analysis and comment
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This week, the adipic acid market was dominated by weak adjustment with little price change. From the basic point of view, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors hindering the rebound of adipic acid market, as well as the upstream raw material market did not bring much boost. At present, the weak demand in the downstream of adipic acid, together with the increase of supply, leads to the increase of social inventory pressure. The market has been in the de stocking stage since October. At present, this process is not over, which is also an important reason why the price has not changed. In terms of region: the market prices in East China and South China have not changed much, and some dealers have slightly weakened, but the range is limited to 50-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, the upstream cost side slightly improved. Pure benzene ended the downward trend of shocks and rebounded slightly, but the strength was not strong, which did not bring much positive effect to the adipic acid market. According to the monitoring of the business club, the price of pure benzene rose 0.76% this week (as shown in the figure below), which may be one of the reasons why the price of adipic acid stopped falling.
Trend chart of pure benzene Market
First of all, from the supply side, the market is still dominated by overall oversupply, which is largely affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders. In the early stage of adipic acid rise, dealers have hoarded a large number of sources of goods, resulting in a large inventory pressure. In addition, the plant operating rate of manufacturers is high, the market inventory and the manufacturer’s inventory are high, and the supply pressure is too large, which is the important reason why adipic acid price does not go out of the weak market.
PA66 market trend chart
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In terms of demand, the downstream procurement has not improved significantly. The traditional “silver ten” market did not arrive on schedule this year. In November, nylon 66 market was depressed. The downstream operating rate continued to decline, basically below 50%, which did not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid has continued to decline since September, as of November 8 , down as much as 6%, (as shown in the figure above) the downturn in the downstream market is the decisive factor for adipic acid to get out of the dilemma.
III. future forecast
According to adipic acid analysts of business, social and chemical branch, whether the adipic acid market can be stabilized remains to be further observed. On the one hand, we need to pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we need to pay attention to whether the downstream demand can be followed up. It is expected that the market will remain depressed in the near future. In the medium term, with the reduction of market inventory pressure, we may see a wave of rebound of adipic acid, but the rebound strength is not expected 。
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