I. price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers fell from 2933.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2783.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 5.11%, 8.98% year-on-year. Overall, carbide fell this week, with the carbide commodity index at 72.93 on October 18.
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II. Trend analysis
(I) products:
The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oveganone quoted 2850 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, down 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shaanxi coal industry quoted 2750 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, down 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; China United Inner Mongolia quoted 2750 yuan / ton of calcium carbide at the end of the week, down 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Xingping Ningxia electricity this week The price of stone is 2750 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week.
This weekend, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2750-2800 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2700 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.
(II) industrial chain:
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Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory quotation of coke this week is temporarily stable, with the quotation of 1716.67 yuan / ton, down 27.45% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of raw materials in the upper reaches was lower and consolidated. Compared with last year, the price dropped a lot and the cost support was insufficient, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.
Downstream market: PVC factory price fell slightly this week. PVC quotation dropped from 6695.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6667.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.41%, down 1.08% year on year. PVC market in the lower reaches fell slightly, and the enthusiasm of customers in the lower reaches for calcium carbide procurement weakened. As a whole, PVC market fell slightly this week, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.
III. future forecast
After the adjustment in September, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. Compared with last year, the price of raw materials in the upstream is lower and consolidated. Compared with last year, the price has dropped a lot, the cost support is not enough, and the positive impact on the price of calcium carbide is limited. The price of PVC in the downstream is slightly lower, and the procurement enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide is general. The aftermarket forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest will fluctuate and fall in late October, and the ex factory price may remain around 2750 yuan / ton.
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