Price Trend

This week (10.07-10.12) the domestic 1# tin ingot market shocks higher, the domestic market average price at the beginning of the week at 135712.50 yuan/ton, the weekend at 137037.50 yuan/ton, up 0.98%.

On October 11, the tin commodity index was 69.81, down 0.06 points from yesterday, down 30.36% from the peak of 100.25 points in the cycle (2011-09-05), and up 62.88% from the low of 42.86 points on December 09, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: As of Friday, the domestic spot market price is about 13600-138000 yuan/ton, and some small-brand goods are slightly lower than 500 yuan/ton. In the futures market this week, against the background of the US economic data being less than expected, the US dollar index fell, while the Renzi price rebounded in the short run. Lunsey hit a stage low of 15,850 yuan/ton on September 30, and then recovered from the bottom. This week, it was in a cross-market consolidation situation, with a high and stable center of gravity. Shanghai and Tin also set a stage low of 133260 yuan/ton on September 30, closing at 136150 yuan/ton on Friday, rising by 1350 yuan/ton a week, or 1.00% a week. Within a week, turnover of 105,000 hands, position of 38,868 hands, an increase of 1278 hands. In terms of lifting and discounting, due to the overall upward trend of the center of gravity of the tin disk in Shanghai Stock Exchange, the spot lifting range narrowed slightly compared with the beginning of the week. On Friday, the lifting range of Panyun Tin for Shanghai Tin 2001 contract was 800-1000 yuan/ton, 200-400 yuan/ton for ordinary Yunzi, 200 yuan/ton for small-brand Tin 2001 contract.

Industry events: Indonesia’s refined tin exports fell 41% year-on-year in September: Jakarta, Oct. 11, data released by Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade on Friday showed that Indonesia’s refined tin exports fell 41% year-on-year in September. Data show that Indonesia exported 5,225.26 tons of refined tin last month, down from 8,854.30 tons in the same period last year. According to the monthly benchmark, the export of refined tin fell by 5% in September compared with the previous month.

Non-ferrous industry: The market has just come back from the National Day holiday with weak performance of important economic data in Europe and the United States. The Federal Reserve is expected to further cut interest rates. The US index is hovering near the 99-point high. Domestic metal pressures are in the first place. However, with the opening of a new round of high-level trade negotiations between China and the United States, market confidence has been boosted, and domestic metal performance has recovered some of the decline.

III. future prospects

In the next week’s domestic and foreign economic data sets, market expectations are weak. Under the downward pressure of the global economy, the US dollar index may be under pressure. The development trend of Sino-US trade negotiations will also establish the performance atmosphere of the market, and face delivery next week. Metal products will be more led by their basic trends.