Price Trend

Butadiene market rose broadly in September 2019. Business Association monitoring showed that the price of butadiene at the beginning of the month was 10354 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 11581 yuan/ton. The price of butadiene rose 11.85% in the month, falling by 1.74% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: in September, the price of domestic butadiene was wide and the price of Sinopec East China and China increased by 1900 yuan / ton to 12500-12600 yuan / ton. The price of some export manufacturers in the North rose first and then fell, and the cumulative chain rose little. The price of Sinopec rose by 800 yuan / ton. In September, the domestic butadiene market rose in the middle of the year. Domestic circulation of spot resources continued to tighten, in the middle of the month, the North China brocade and the HP device planned to park outside, the superposed crude oil was affected by the external news surface, the market good news releases centrally, and the downstream part of the rally mood supports, the market surges rapidly. However, the range of downstream market follow-up is limited, and the transaction price of ocean-going vessels in the outer market of butadiene is difficult to push up. As the atmosphere of replenishing warehouses in the downstream of northern China has cooled, the butadiene market has stopped rising and consolidated in the second half of the year. At the end of the month, manufacturers released a large number of holiday inventory pressures before the festival, and the supply increment in the North slowed down rapidly. However, due to transportation constraints, there was no obvious low-price inflow of goods in East China for the time being. Businessmen had no obvious intention of initiative to underreport. They were cautious in anticipating the market after the festival and were mainly on the lookout. In terms of price, the best products in Shandong are priced at 11100-11200 yuan / ton, and 12400-12500 yuan / ton in eastern China for reference.

Enterprises: Sinopec East China butadiene supply price increased by 1900 yuan/ton to 12 500 yuan/ton, North China price increased by 1000 yuan/ton to 11 600 yuan/ton, Central China price increased by 500 yuan/ton to 11 100 yuan/ton; In mid-month, Huajin butadiene plant stopped for two weeks or so, the bottom bidding price of nodes was 10 310 yuan/ton as of 16 days, the transaction price was 11 110 yuan/ton, and the export volume shrank during the month affected by plant parking. Reduced to 858 tons. As of 29 days, the bottom price of Sinopec’s auction was 10500 yuan / ton, the transaction price was 10500-10520 yuan / ton, the total volume in the month was 3180 tons, the increment was 89.29%, and the 100 thousand tons / year oxidation dehydrogenation unit of the company was stopped on 1-8 and 23-25 days in September respectively. The price of gold is 12000 yuan / ton, which rose by 14.29% at the end of last month. About September 20th, the Haldia Petrochemicals 97 thousand tons / year facility in India stopped unexpectedly, which affected some export plans and heard that the device plan was restarted at the beginning of next month. Please continue to pay attention to the details.

Industry: in September 2019, BCI of the business community was 0.31, with an average increase of 3.77%, reflecting the expansion of the manufacturing economy in the month compared with the previous month and the stable operation of the economy.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, the positive aspects are: the spot resources in East China are relatively tight; the price gap between the North and the South is large, the profits of the downstream industry are upside down, the start of construction is declining, the external market trend is weak, and the ocean-going ship cargo arrives at port to replenish. Due to the fall of the northern market before the festival and the uncertainty of the holiday external market news, it is expected that the return market after the festival will remain in order for the time being; however, the current price gap between the north and the south is widening, and after the festival it is not excluded that the inflow of low-priced goods from the north will lead to the fall of high prices in eastern China. At the same time, the high price of butadiene causes downstream rubber industry to start a certain downward risk. Overall, although the short-term supply side of small-scale market in East China is slightly supportive, under the influence of the northern market and downstream demand, business community butadiene analysts predict that domestic butadiene supply and demand is weak as a whole and the market downturn is likely.