According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 7966.67 yuan/ton as of February 8, up 3.46% from the price on February 1.

Since February, the acrylic acid market has risen steadily. From the perspective of cost: the recent rise in the price of raw material propylene has supported acrylic acid. From the perspective of supply and demand: the enterprise’s device load is not high, the industry’s inventory is low, and the downstream has returned, the demand has gradually increased, the market inquiry is positive, and the focus of acrylic acid negotiation has steadily increased.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has risen slightly recently. On February 8, the reference price of propylene was 7680.75, up 1.99% from February 1 (7530.75).

According to customs statistics, from January to December 2022, China’s cumulative imports of acrylic acid and its salts were 35753620 kg, and the cumulative exports were 129322873 kg. The lowest import volume is in December, the import volume is 134140 kg, the highest import volume is in February, and the import volume is 5395355 kg. The lowest export volume is in October, the export volume is 618993 kg, the highest export volume is in June, and the export volume is 29925693 kg.

The acrylic acid analyst of the Business Agency believes that the market fundamentals have not changed much at present, and the transaction remains in negotiation. With the resumption of downstream work, the demand is stable and expected to be better. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has increased significantly, and the spot prices have increased more or decreased less after the holiday. As of February 7, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA6 was 14500 yuan/ton, up 7.94% month-on-month (MoM), according to the data monitoring of Business News Agency.

Cause analysis

Raw materials:

It can be seen from the above figure that the caprolactam market in the upstream of PA6 has a positive trend recently, with a range increase of 13.65%. In the early stage, international crude oil rebounded after falling, and the price of pure benzene rose, driving the cost of caprolactam to strengthen the upstream. At present, the market supply is tight. In February, the manufacturer’s overhaul and restart plans alternate, and the caprolactam supply side pressure is low. On February 6, the price of the business club was 12766.67 yuan/ton, and the market was generally good, which may continue to be strong in the short term, bringing strong support to the cost of PA6.

Supply:

Before and after the Spring Festival, the load of domestic PA6 production enterprises increased slightly from about 67.8% before the festival to 70.8% at present, and the overall operation was stable. The total output in the week after the holiday is about 90000 tons. The market supply is stable. Due to the large number of orders and goods to be shipped in the early stage of the factory, the current inventory pressure of the factory is low, the market supply is tight, the supplier has some support for the spot goods, and the factory price is generally rising.

Demand:

In the early stage, the demand of the terminal factory fell due to holidays, and the downstream gradually resumed work in the near future. However, the increased load of downstream enterprises of PA6 is still low. The current starting position of domestic textile industry load is 21.9%, and the starting rate of nylon filament industry is about 55%. The consumption capacity of PA6 is generally maintained at the pre-holiday level, and the demand-side pull is weak. In addition, the terminal factory still has the stock to be digested before the year. At present, the purchase intention is cautious and wait-and-see. In combination with the above factors, the demand side support of PA6 is not strong, and the profit margin of merchants has been lowered.

Aftermarket forecast

Overall, the positive market of PA6 market after the festival is mainly driven by caprolactam at the raw material end. At the same time, the inventory pressure of PA6 polymerization plant is low, and the ex-factory price is strong. However, downstream enterprises resumed work slowly after the holiday, the load position only recovered to the low level before the year, the procurement follow-up was weak, and the market trading was weak. Some merchants have an arbitrage mentality, and the operation is biased to sneak down the goods, and individual offers fall slightly. It is expected that the domestic PA6 market will be limited in the short term due to the long and short entanglement. It is recommended to pay close attention to the flow of goods.

Price trend

At the beginning of February, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and sorted out. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 6, the average price of ABS sample products was 12000 yuan/ton, up and down by -0.83% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the recent performance of ABS upstream three materials is generally fair. Among them, the acrylonitrile market was flat after rising, and the listing price of manufacturers was increased in the early stage. With the support of raw material propylene, the industry started at a low level, and the prices quoted by merchants kept up with the rise, and most of them were reluctant to sell.

The domestic butadiene market has continued to rise recently. In the early stage, the prices of mainstream suppliers rose to drive the market. The low inventory of the East China tank farm, coupled with the recent release of some factory maintenance plans, and the expectation of contraction at the supply side, supported the firm intention of some merchants to offer. However, the demand is generally reflected, and the acceptance of high-priced supply is not good, which may affect the later growth. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will be strong in the short term.

Recently, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has fallen. In the early stage, pure benzene has rebounded with crude oil. In the recent period, crude oil has declined, and styrene has declined slightly. Downstream demand for bargain-hunting and replenishment has just been maintained. The styrene market has declined due to the impact of cost fluctuations. At present, the supply of styrene is abundant, but the recovery of the downstream still needs time. It is expected that the market of styrene will fall mainly due to short-term shocks.

In terms of supply: the recent high level of load in the ABS industry, the high and stable start of the plant, the relatively abundant supply of goods on the site, and the factory continued the early de-stocking operation, the overall inventory position is not high, the price of the polymerization plant rose more or fell less after the festival, and the support of the supply side for the spot price is acceptable.

In terms of demand: in the near future, downstream factories including the main terminal appliance industry have prepared goods in a regular manner. The volume of goods in the field before the festival is general, the overall demand tends to be stable, and the goods in the field are normal. Buyers and merchants follow the market after the festival.

Aftermarket forecast

At the beginning of February, the trend of ABS upstream three materials was mixed, which continued to support the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant started at a high level, the supply was stable, and the ex-factory price rose more or fell less in terms of operation. The demand-side support is general, the seller’s inventory position is on the high side, and the offer is mainly based on the price. It is expected that the ABS market will be sorted and operated in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic ethanol market in January was mainly sorted out. From January 1 to 31, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell from 7421 yuan/ton to 7242 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2.41% in the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 3.65%.

In January, the supply and demand side of the domestic ethanol market price was greatly affected, and the cost side support was limited. At the beginning of the month, the supply and demand of raw material corn market was roughly balanced, and the short-term price was roughly stable, with partial narrow adjustment. The demand side is stable, the demand at the chemical end is stable before the festival, and the starting load is down slightly; The demand for Baijiu is stable; Before the festival, disinfection and sterilization demand continued to pull. The ethanol market returns to calm. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the delivery of raw materials by large factories in the northeast region was restricted greatly in the middle of June, and the enterprises started to reduce their production, and the price rose after the supply decreased. After the Lunar New Year, with the further liberalization of the country, the daily disinfection consumption returned to normal, and the ethanol market was mainly stabilized.

On the cost side, according to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic corn price fluctuated in January. On January 1, the average price of the third-class yellow corn was 2830.00 yuan/ton, and on January 31, the average price was 2834.29 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.15%. After the New Year’s Day, the supply of domestic corn market is relatively stable. Affected by the increase of rain and snow weather, the arrival quantity of corn at the port has declined. The port area has slightly increased the purchase price of corn. In addition, near the end of the year, the willingness of farmers in the production area to sell grain has declined significantly, and the trade volume of domestic corn market has continued to decline. In order to stimulate the arrival of corn, the port area and some deep-processing enterprises have slightly increased the purchase price of corn, Drive the domestic corn market price to run slightly stronger.

On the demand side, in February, the chemical procurement is likely to increase, and the consumption of Baijiu and food is expected to increase after the economy recovers gradually. The fuel demand will maintain a good demand in the short term. There are many positive factors in the demand side of ethanol in the medium and long term.

It is predicted that after the closure is lifted, the consumption of disinfection and sterilization will increase; Still in the atmosphere of the Spring Festival, the demand for Baijiu has recovered; The demand for ethyl acetate in the chemical industry continued to be stable, and the overall on-site demand was significantly boosted. Ethanol analysts of the Business Agency expect that the domestic ethanol market is expected to be sorted out and run in the short term.