After the Mid Autumn Festival, the domestic liquefied gas market was dominated by consolidation, and the Shandong civil gas market lacked the impetus to continue to rise, and the price fell back in a narrow range. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of liquefied gas in the civil Shandong market was 5930.00 yuan/ton on September 8, and 5916.00 yuan/ton on September 15, with a weekly drop of 0.24%, up 13.04% compared with the same period last year.

As of September 15, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, mainstream quotation

North China, 5750-5950 yuan/ton

In South China, 5650-5800 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5500-5900 yuan/ton

Shandong Province, 5900-6000 yuan/ton

This week, the overall domestic liquefied gas market was dominated by consolidation. The Shandong civil gas market was generally stable, and the ex factory prices of individual manufacturers were lowered by a small margin. During the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the price of civil gas in Shandong was mostly stable. After the festival, due to the lack of impetus for rising, the price fell back. The recent trend of the international crude oil market is volatile, which has brought limited support to the market. Although the “Golden Ninth” has been more than half, the terminal demand has been limited. The downstream replenishment demand after the festival has not met expectations. The manufacturer’s shipment situation is general, the market trading atmosphere is limited, and the price falls back.

On September 15, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2210 was 5543, the highest price was 5625, the lowest price was 5511, the closing price was 5522, the previous settlement price was 5547, the settlement price was 5576, down 25, the trading volume was 95675, the position was 49876, and the daily position increase was – 3026. (Quotation unit: yuan/ton)

At present, the international crude oil market has risen, and the cost has brought relative support to the market. Although it was more than half of September, the increase of terminal demand was limited. The downstream was resistant to the high price. The enthusiasm for entering the market was not good. The market trading atmosphere was general. The manufacturers adjusted the price more and mainly shipped. It is estimated that in the short term, the market price of Shandong civil gas may still yield a small margin.

On September 14, the mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 178000-180000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 179000 yuan/ton, down 9000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

On the night of the 13th, the United States released inflation data, which was generally high and exceeded market expectations. The expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates rose, leading to a sharp rise of about 1.5% in the dollar index. The metal was generally under pressure at night, with Lunxi falling more than 35, and Shanghai Tin leading the decline of 4.33%. In the morning of the 14th, Shanghai Tin continued the decline of the night market. As of the closing of the 14th, the main force of Shanghai Tin 2210 contracts had closed at 174410 yuan/ton, down 4.63%.

Fundamentally speaking, the recent commencement of the smelter is generally stable. The domestic tin output increased significantly in August. The recent profits of import sources are obvious. The import sources have increased significantly. The quotation of imported goods in the market has increased. The domestic tin ingot supply is generally loose. There is no obvious change in downstream demand in the near future, consumption is slightly weak, and the willingness to prepare goods before the festival is low as a whole. Downstream still maintains procurement on demand, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. In general, the tin market is still characterized by weak supply and demand, weak downstream demand, and tin price is hard to support. The trend of tin price is obviously subject to macro disturbance. It is expected that the tin price as a whole is still likely to maintain a wide range of shocks.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell slightly this week, and the average market price fell from 163.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 153.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week. A year-on-year drop of 44.58%. On September 12, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 40.35, which was the same as yesterday, down 70.74% from the highest point 137.89 (October 26, 2021) in the cycle, and up 124.42% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream procurement

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market price fell slightly, from 2095.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2071.25 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.13%, a year-on-year increase of 17.54% over the same period of last year; The market price of ammonium chloride fell slightly, from 1057.50 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 975.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 7.80%. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is weakened.

Future forecast

In the middle of September, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has been consolidated at a low level recently, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride market have declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing intention is general. The analysts of the business association believe that hydrochloric acid has declined slightly in recent shocks.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the business agency, the market of formaldehyde in Shandong has been shaken and consolidated recently. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong is 1253.33 yuan / ton. The current price has increased by 3.30% month on month, and the current price has decreased by 8.52% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

This week, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong is basically stable. It can be seen from the figure above that the market of formaldehyde has not fluctuated much in the past two months, and the market has fluctuated and consolidated this week. As of September 6, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1220-1280 yuan / ton. Recently, the methanol market has been shaken up, the cost support is OK, the formaldehyde market is basically stable under the influence of methanol, the downstream demand is difficult to improve, and the purchase is just needed. The formaldehyde market is generally traded, and the market fluctuation is not big.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market has a slight upward trend. The prices of enterprises in southern Shandong are concentrated around 2700 yuan / ton, and the local prices in Linyi are around 2760-2780 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of enterprises in central and eastern Shandong is around 2680-2730 yuan / ton.

This week, the methanol market fluctuated slightly, mainly by shock consolidation. The current operation of downstream plate factories is general, and most of them take a wait-and-see attitude towards the formaldehyde market. They have strong bargaining sentiment, poor digestion of market inventory, and it is difficult to increase the formaldehyde price. Normal shipment makes the formaldehyde market less volatile.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has an upward trend, and the demand of downstream wood plate factories continues to be weak. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the business community chemical branch predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly rise in shock in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of September 5, 2022, the average factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 6383 yuan / ton, which was 83 yuan / ton lower than that on September 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 6466 yuan / ton), a decrease of 1.29%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business association that in the early September (9.1-9.5), the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was weak and falling. Although the traditional golden Ninth Festival has arrived, affected by the lack of boost from the demand side, on the first day of the month, the focus of the domestic dimethyl carbonate market moved downward as a whole. Some factories reduced the price of dimethyl carbonate by around 100 yuan / ton. Subsequently, affected by the slow stalemate between supply and demand, the dimethyl carbonate market continued to operate in a weak manner, the downstream wait-and-see mood was heavy, the trading atmosphere was relatively depressed, and the demand side mainly continued to purchase just needed. As of September 5, the factory price of dimethyl carbonate in China is around 6200-6600 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, in the recent period (9.1-9.5), the market price of propylene oxide has risen. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on September 5, the reference price of propylene oxide was 9700 yuan / ton, up 3.56% compared with September 1 (9366.67 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the dimethyl carbonate market is weak in consolidation and operation. I heard that there was a sudden shutdown of the dimethyl carbonate factory in recent days, and the pressure on the supply side will be relieved. In addition, as the Mid Autumn Festival is approaching, the downstream will start to stock up one after another, and the support on the demand side will also be improved. The dimethyl carbonate statistician of the business club believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is expected to be better, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the news changes on the supply and demand side.

This week (8.29-9.2), the domestic polysilicon price rose slightly, and the trading focus rose by 2000-3000 yuan / ton compared with the previous weekend. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the weekly growth rate of single crystal compact materials with the model of first-class solar energy is 0.23%. The mainstream range is to the range of 296000-309000 yuan / ton.

This week, the prices of silicon wafer manufacturers have not been adjusted yet. The operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers is still at a low level. Up to now, about 5 large domestic silicon material manufacturers have had their devices overhauled or shut down. At present, three have started up one after another, and the production is still unstable. Generally speaking, the supply of silicon materials is still tight. In terms of terminals, the start-up of battery cells has also declined, the price is temporarily stable, the operating rate of components remains low, there is a general resistance to high priced raw materials, the demand for distributed installed capacity has declined, and the demand in the later stage may suppress the upstream.

Future forecast: polysilicon analysts of business club believe that the three silicon material enterprises have resumed work and are expected to restore stable supply in the near future. With the increase of supply, the tension in domestic silicon material supply will be eased. However, considering that there are many orders from manufacturers in September and there is no quantity to sign, the demand in the later period can still cover the supply. Therefore, it is expected that the price of silicon material will remain high. We do not rule out the possibility that prices will rise.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 30, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9100.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.49% over the price on August 1, a year-on-year decrease of 21.78% in a three-month cycle, and a decrease of 43.24% over the same period last year.

In August, the market price of propylene oxide fluctuated and rose slightly. In the first half of the month, the raw material propylene fell slightly due to shocks, with limited cost impact, north-south market differentiation, controllable inventory in the northern market on the supply side, high price operation, abundant supply in the southern market, empty negotiation mood, and stalemate in the North-South pattern. With smooth shipment of factories in the north, the price rose without pressure. On the 15th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 9100-9200 yuan / ton. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material propylene fell first and then rose. The cost side support was general, the demand side support was weak, the market shipment was weak, the downstream purchase was cautious, and the price was stable but loose. The supply side support in the second half of the year was fair, the cost support was strengthened, and the market was operating at a high price. Near the end of the month, the supplier had no pressure, and the market was strong. On the 30th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 9400-9500 yuan / ton.

As for upstream propylene, according to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market continued to fluctuate downward in August, and the price further declined. The market was at 7348 yuan / ton at the beginning of August, and the average price at the end of the month was 7036 yuan / ton, with a monthly drop of 4.25%. The average price within the month was the lowest 6834 yuan / ton.

Downstream propylene glycol: on August 29, the reference price of propylene glycol was 9233.33, up 19.65% compared with August 1 (7716.67).

The propylene oxide analyst of business club believes that the current cost side has a certain support, the supply side is not under pressure, and the downstream side keeps following up. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will be strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information and guidance.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, in August, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major local refiners was 4082.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4114.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 31.50 yuan / ton within the month and a monthly increase of 0.77%.

On August 30, the petroleum coke commodity index was 319.98, which was the same as yesterday, down 21.71% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (May 11, 2022), and up 378.37% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: in August, the price of locally refined petroleum coke fluctuated and increased. At the beginning of August, the downstream carbon enterprises were active in purchasing, the petroleum coke inventory of refineries was low, and the price of petroleum coke of some refineries increased; In the middle of August, the film was limited, the market of electrolytic aluminum was weak, the market was mainly based on demand, and the price of petroleum coke in the refinery was down; In late August, the shipment of the refinery improved, the inventory was low, the downstream procurement was based on demand, and the price of petroleum coke in the refinery increased.

Upstream: in August, the trend of international crude oil prices declined. The decline of crude oil prices was mainly due to the large decline in the middle and early August. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominated the market, and the economic data were generally weak, which again raised the market’s concern about the global economic recession. In addition, the market waited for the results of the negotiations on the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the supply tension was expected to ease, which put pressure on the international oil price. Finally, according to the estimation of the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase the additional capacity of about 1.3 million barrels / day. This is also a reversal of the market’s view on supply tightening, and the trend of international oil prices has declined. The international oil price rebounded in late August. On the one hand, the US inventory data supported it. In addition, on Thursday, the economic data released by the U.S. Department of labor showed strong performance, and the demand for refined oil remained strong, diluting the worries about the slowdown of fuel demand caused by the risk of economic recession.

Downstream: Calcined coke price decreased slightly in August; Metal silicon market fell after rising; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated. As of August 31, the price was 18453.33 yuan / ton; Downstream carbon enterprises mainly purchase on demand.

3、 Future forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of business agency predicted that: the international crude oil in August fluctuated downward, and the cost support of petroleum coke was limited; At the end of the month, the inventory of the local refining enterprises was low, the petroleum coke shipment was good, and the downstream procurement was active at the end of the month. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will remain stable in the near future.