1、 Price data

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, in August, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major local refiners was 4082.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4114.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 31.50 yuan / ton within the month and a monthly increase of 0.77%.

On August 30, the petroleum coke commodity index was 319.98, which was the same as yesterday, down 21.71% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (May 11, 2022), and up 378.37% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: in August, the price of locally refined petroleum coke fluctuated and increased. At the beginning of August, the downstream carbon enterprises were active in purchasing, the petroleum coke inventory of refineries was low, and the price of petroleum coke of some refineries increased; In the middle of August, the film was limited, the market of electrolytic aluminum was weak, the market was mainly based on demand, and the price of petroleum coke in the refinery was down; In late August, the shipment of the refinery improved, the inventory was low, the downstream procurement was based on demand, and the price of petroleum coke in the refinery increased.

Upstream: in August, the trend of international crude oil prices declined. The decline of crude oil prices was mainly due to the large decline in the middle and early August. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominated the market, and the economic data were generally weak, which again raised the market’s concern about the global economic recession. In addition, the market waited for the results of the negotiations on the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the supply tension was expected to ease, which put pressure on the international oil price. Finally, according to the estimation of the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase the additional capacity of about 1.3 million barrels / day. This is also a reversal of the market’s view on supply tightening, and the trend of international oil prices has declined. The international oil price rebounded in late August. On the one hand, the US inventory data supported it. In addition, on Thursday, the economic data released by the U.S. Department of labor showed strong performance, and the demand for refined oil remained strong, diluting the worries about the slowdown of fuel demand caused by the risk of economic recession.

Downstream: Calcined coke price decreased slightly in August; Metal silicon market fell after rising; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated. As of August 31, the price was 18453.33 yuan / ton; Downstream carbon enterprises mainly purchase on demand.

3、 Future forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of business agency predicted that: the international crude oil in August fluctuated downward, and the cost support of petroleum coke was limited; At the end of the month, the inventory of the local refining enterprises was low, the petroleum coke shipment was good, and the downstream procurement was active at the end of the month. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will remain stable in the near future.