1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of baking soda is stable temporarily. At present, the average market price of baking soda is 3143.33 yuan / ton. On October 13, the commodity index of baking soda was 208.63, an increase of 2.21 points over yesterday, a record high in the cycle, and an increase of 136.35% over the lowest point of 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business society, the price of baking soda is strong, and the price continues to rise. First, due to the dual control policy, the price of raw soda increases and the supply decreases. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the average market price of soda is about 3475 yuan / ton. Second, in the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food has improved recently. Generally speaking, the price of baking soda will continue to consolidate in the short term, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

1、 Price trend

According to the survey data of business agency, the average market price in Shandong is about 1472.5 yuan / ton. Because of the dual control policy, caustic soda manufacturers shut down and supply decreased. Downstream: at present, alumina enterprises are more active in purchasing caustic soda in the near future, and the quotation of caustic soda manufacturers is increased. Business analysts believe that recently, due to environmental protection factors, manufacturers in Shandong have limited production, reduced manufacturers’ supply, and the price of caustic soda is rising, while the recent procurement of downstream alumina is more wait-and-see. However, considering the supply situation, it is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate well, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of business society, the market price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride is rising. As of the 12th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride is 7700 yuan / ton. The spot supply on the site is normal and the sales situation is acceptable.

The price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is rising, the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market is normal, the recent downstream demand changes little, the price trend of upstream orthobenzene is rising, and the plasticizer market is rising. Due to the impact of dual control, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is tight, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is rising. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers maintained a low level, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the field was less than 60%, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride was tight, the market price trend rose, the downstream plasticizer industry improved, and the actual transaction was normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is rising, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 7700-7800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 7400-7500 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 7700-7800 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. The plasticizer market has improved recently, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise in the later stage.

Commodity: nitric acid

Spot price (October 11): 3356 yuan / ton.

On the 11th, the spot price of concentrated nitric acid decreased by 5.89% compared with the 8th. Downstream enterprises limited power, blocked nitric acid demand, manufacturers in some regions decreased nitric acid quotation, and enterprises raised nitric acid quotation in some regions due to tight nitric acid supply. Nitric acid analysts of business society predicted that the limited film sounded and the rise of nitric acid was weak.

Trade name: acrylic acid

Latest price (October 9): 18366.67 yuan / ton

On October 9, the price of acrylic acid was mainly stable, and the price of some enterprises decreased, down 0.36% compared with the previous trading day and up 25.80% compared with the price on September 9. At present, the price of raw material propylene is rising, the cost support is strengthened, the overall operating rate of the market after the festival is improved, the spot supply is increased, the downstream is mainly purchased on demand, the inquiry is positive, and the actual transaction is general.

It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market may be dominated by stable consolidation and operation.

According to the monitoring of business agency, on October 8, the mainstream negotiation focus of domestic BDO market was 29700-30300 yuan / ton (bulk water). Before the festival, the supply side support remained, the suppliers actively supported the market, the traders were reluctant to sell, the offer was increased by a narrow margin, and the auction price of Northwest goods source was high, and the market focus was running at a high level. However, with the influence of policies, the downstream industries in some areas have reduced their negative production, the operators’ purchase and marketing mentality has become cautious, and the market trading is deadlocked. After the festival, the maintenance devices were restarted one after another, the support of the supply side was weakened, and the supply and demand sides negotiated the game.

Product Name: silicone DMC

Latest price (September 30): 62366 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on September 30, the day before the national day, the domestic silicone DMC market as a whole maintained a high and stable operation, and the supply side performance was still tight. On the 30th, the factory quotation of domestic silicone DMC was around 60500-63300 yuan / ton, which was slightly adjusted compared with the previous working day, and the sporadic high-end price was around 64000-65000 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: it is expected that the silicone DMC market will continue to operate with high stability after the festival, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the principle and the follow-up of upstream and downstream supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the price of aniline rebounded to the highest level in the month after falling this month, and then fell again. On September 1, the price in Shandong was 10700-10900 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11100-11200 yuan / ton; On September 30, the price of aniline in Shandong was 11100-11320 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 11300-11500 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.76% over the beginning of the month and 110.69% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene rose by more than 10% in the first half of this month; The price fell sharply in the second half of the month. At the end of the month, the price was 7880 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.82% this month, an increase of 133.14% over the same period last year. The difference between the highest and lowest prices in the month was 1100 yuan / ton.

Nitric acid: this month, nitric acid continued its rise in August, and the price rose broadly. The price of nitric acid in East China was 3030 yuan / ton on September 1 and 3460 yuan / ton on September 29, an increase of 14.19% over the beginning of the month and 128.13% over the same period last year.

In the first ten days: the aniline unit was restarted in the early maintenance, and the supply increased; Affected by environmental protection inspection in the downstream, the operating rate decreased, the demand for aniline was not followed up, and the price fell; Mid year: in case of “double control” production restriction in Jiangsu, the unit stopped and the capacity loss was serious; Load reduction operation of units in Shandong. Aniline was in short supply and the price rebounded rapidly. In the last ten days: the dynamics of aniline plant: Jinling, Huatai and Jinmao returned to normal operation; Jiangsu Yangnong restarted on September 24; Nanhua plans to restart after the national day; Jiangsu Fuqiang is still parking. The focus of aniline Market returned to the demand side, and the price fell.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the downstream shutdown devices were restarted one after another, and there were new downstream in Shandong in October. The demand for pure benzene rebounded, which may be a good support for the price.

The shutdown devices in the early stage were restored one after another, and the tight supply of aniline Market was relieved; Stable downstream demand; Pure benzene and nitric acid at the raw material end are at a high level. Overall, aniline is still rising. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the changes of market supply and demand, the dynamics of aniline plant and the trend of raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), on September 30, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 12587.5 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.28% compared with the previous day, 3225 yuan higher than 9362.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 34.45% during the month and 88.44% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

On the last working day before the National Day holiday on September 30, PVC still did not stop rising and continued to rise. The highest price of the main contract 2201 was 12210, with a daily increase of 3.36%. The spot market also rose at the same time, with a daily increase of 3.28%, about 88% higher than the level in the same period last year. The enterprise still continued to raise the price by about 400-500 yuan / ton, and now it is more than 12000 yuan / ton, There are also higher ones. Taking Lutai chemical as an example, the ex factory price of spot exchange has reached 13500 yuan / ton, Haohua Aerospace 8 has risen to 14200 yuan / ton, and some ethylene methods have also risen to about 13700-13800 yuan / ton. The overall focus of the market continues to move upward. At present, the output of raw calcium carbide has decreased due to the double control of energy consumption. In just a few days, the price has risen to 7800 yuan / ton, and there is still room for rise. The cost support is strong, the price reduction intention of PVC market is insufficient, and many orders are closed and suspended. In addition, there is still a certain demand for goods in the downstream before the festival, which helps PVC to continue to make up the rise. Although the transaction atmosphere is relatively general, it still has a certain toughness, Support PVC to keep running high.

According to the monthly increase and decrease from October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021, it can be seen that PVC has mostly increased in recent years. Only in November 2020, January and June 2021, the price decreased, and increased sharply in September, reaching a new high in recent three years.

In terms of spot goods, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 11000-12500 yuan / ton. The interval of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 12580-12700 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 12300-12500 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 12300-12600 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China continues to rise.

Import and export: in August 2021, the import volume of PVC pure powder in China was 48200 tons, an increase of 33.7% month on month and a decrease of 60% year on year; In August, China’s export volume of PVC pure powder was 68900 tons, an increase of 11.1% month on month and 127.7% year-on-year. From January to August 2021, China imported 254000 tons of pure PVC powder, a decrease of 65.6% over the same period last year. From January to August, China exported 1234000 tons of pure PVC powder, an increase of 290.5% over the same period last year.

The rise of the external price has boosted the rising atmosphere of the domestic PVC market. At present, CFR China Zhang 20 is at US $1420 / T, CFR Southeast Asia is up 100 at US $1510 / T, and CFR India is up 160 at US $1800 / T.

region workmanship 9 / 30 (yuan / ton) 9 / 1 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 12200-12500 9400-9500 + 2800/+3000 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 12250-12550 9410-9480 + 2840/+3070 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 12140-12240 9270-9370 + 2870/+2870 Delivered

southwest Calcium carbide method 12520-13000 9250-9500 + 3270/+3500 Delivered

International crude oil, on September 29, the international oil price fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $74.83/barrel, down US $0.46 or 0.6%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $78.09/barrel, down US $0.26 or 0.33%. This was mainly due to the unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and pressure on oil prices, but the difficulty in increasing production of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) limited the decline in oil prices.

Ethylene, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and rose in September. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the month was US $1066.00/t, and the average price of ethylene at the end of the month was US $1124.75/t, an increase of 5.51%. The current price fell by 5.76% month on month, and the current price increased by 48.63% year-on-year.

Calcium carbide, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose sharply this month. This month, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 5450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7600.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 2150 yuan / ton, or 39.45%. The calcium carbide market rose sharply in September. The business community expects that the calcium carbide market will fluctuate slightly in the middle and early October.

Data show that from January to August, the national real estate development investment was 9806 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%. It is 15.9% higher than that from January to August 2019, with an average growth of 7.7% in the two years. Among them, the residential investment was 7397.1 billion yuan, an increase of 13.0%. In terms of subregions, the growth rate in the central region is relatively fast. From January to August, the investment in real estate development in the eastern region was 5187.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%; The central region invested 2061.4 billion yuan, an increase of 17.1%; The investment in the western region was 2183.7 billion yuan, an increase of 9.4%; The investment in Northeast China was 373.8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw calcium carbide continues to rise, there is still room for upward movement, the cost support is still strong, and the PVC spot is still tight. There is still a certain replenishment demand in the downstream product industry before the festival, so the fundamentals are good, so the PVC price is not easy to decline. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, and we need to pay attention to the trend of raw material price.