I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of November 14, according to the data of several sample quotation enterprises, the average market price of domestic n-propanol is around 10800 yuan / ton, and the market is generally stable and weak.

II. Market analysis

Products: since the beginning of November, the overall price of n-propanol market has not fluctuated much, mainly due to the stable operation of finishing. The normal operation of n-propanol production plant, the low downstream demand of n-propanol market, the weak transaction atmosphere, the downstream purchase on demand, along with the purchase and use, the overall quotation is relatively stable. At present, the main quotation of imported n-propanol traders in Taiwan is around 10600-11600 yuan / ton (content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; barrel tax included), and the price is basically the same as that in October. The quotation of dealers in different parts of imported n-propanol is different, and the actual single negotiation is the main one. Domestic n-propanol dealers reported that the price was basically the same as that in October, and the dealer’s quotation reference was about 10200-11200 yuan / ton (content ≥ 99.5; grade: superior; barrel tax included); domestic n-propanol manufacturer, Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., the n-propanol plant was started this month, and the price of n-propanol produced by the factory was adjusted on November 6, with the latest ex factory quotation of 9100 yuan / ton.（ Content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; tax included in bulk water), which is decreased by 500 yuan / ton compared with the end of October, and the price has no change until November 14.

Industry chain: the upstream product propylene oxide market has been in weak operation since the beginning of November. At present, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average market price of propylene oxide is around 9866 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that of the beginning of November. As of November 14, the market of propylene oxide in East China is stable, and the current reference price is 9500 yuan / ton, which is delivered by cash transfer; propylene oxide in North China The market is stable, and the current reference price is 9400 yuan / ton, leaving the factory in spot exchange; the market of propylene oxide in Shandong is stable, and the current reference price is 9500 yuan / ton, leaving the factory in spot exchange.

III. future forecast

According to the prediction of the business agency, it is expected that the n-propanol market will remain stable in the end of November, with traders and dealers stimulating market demand or slightly adjusting prices

On November 13, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

On March 13, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable, the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices was stable, the delivery market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers was general, the downstream purchased on demand, and affected by environmental protection control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stopped production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started construction limited, and the market price trend was temporarily stable. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi Province is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and in Hebei Province is 2300-2500 yuan / ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream manufacturers are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate is at a low level, but the cost of raw materials is well supported, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic nitric acid market continues to maintain a low level, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province is 1600 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui is about 1600 yuan / ton. Shandong manufacturers offer 1650 yuan / ton, the price trend is weak. The delivery of nitric acid is general. The low price of nitric acid has a negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable temporarily. The market of liquid ammonia in the upstream of China is significantly lower, the trend of some enterprises in Shandong is declining, and the price in the northwest is declining. At present, the local ammonia volume is normal, especially the supply of some manufacturers in Shandong is relatively sufficient, and the main quotation in Shandong is 2 800-3000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in Hebei is 2750-2900 yuan / ton. The decline of liquid ammonia market has a certain negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. In the near future, the market of the downstream civil explosive industry has not changed much. The market demand for ammonium nitrate is limited. The inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high, but the market price of raw materials remains high. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is generally stable due to the commodity market. Analysts of ammonium nitrate of business association think that in the near future, the market price of upstream raw material nitric acid remains low, and the downstream demand is still low, and it is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will remain stable in the later stage.

On November 12, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on December 12, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli petrochemical plant was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On November 11, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 7 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 759-761 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 779-781 US dollars / ton CFR in China. Over 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The rise of external market price has a certain positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On November 11, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States fell to US $56.86/barrel, or US $0.38, while Brent crude oil futures price fell to US $62.18/barrel, or US $0.33. China’s crude oil import in October was 45.511 million tons, a record high again, but the natural gas import fell for the first time in three years. The strong refining profit in August led to the increase of China’s crude oil purchase orders Most of the new ships arrived in October, and it is expected that China’s crude oil import will be cut in November, which affects the confidence of the crude oil market bulls, the crude oil price drops, and the domestic paraxylene price trend is stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has continued to decline. The average price of the offer in East China is about 4700-4800 yuan / ton. As of the 11th day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 95%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 88%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general transaction atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by crude oil price The market price of PTA in the downstream is slightly lower due to the shock, and it is expected that the market price of PX will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

On November 10, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 61.56, unchanged from yesterday, 48.76% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 120.13 (2012-02-28), and 27.14% higher than the lowest point, 48.42, on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has been falling continuously. In East China, the market price of phthalic anhydride is weak. The downstream factories maintain rigid demand for procurement. The factory inventory pressure increases, and high-end transactions are blocked. In recent years, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride continues to be at a low level. In East China, the main flow of negotiation of neighboring method source is 6200-6600 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method source is 5700-5900 yuan / ton; in North China, the main quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6000-6200 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers’ prices in the field callback, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is sufficient, and the downstream demand is not good Turn, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. The price of imported phthalic anhydride in the port area is declining, and the quotation is temporarily stable. In the near future, the price of phthalic anhydride in the port area is declining, the port inventory is still at a low level, and the quotation of phthalic acid in the external market is fluctuating and falling. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed. Influenced by the price drop of upstream raw material phthalic acid, the price trend of phthalic anhydride market continues Slide downward. The downstream DOP price is slightly lower, the price of isooctanol is lower, and the DOP cost is lower. The DOP price is fluctuating, the downstream demand of DOP is normal, the customer’s purchasing enthusiasm is general, the downstream PVC market is fluctuating and declining, the high-end transaction of DOP is blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market is slightly reduced to 7400-7700 yuan / ton, the downstream price trend is declining, and the upstream ox price is falling, affected by the cost downward slide, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a slightly lower trend in the later period.

I. price trend

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, in the first week of November (11.4-8), the domestic adipic acid still maintained a weak market. Although the price stopped falling, it still remained in a depressed situation. This week’s rise and fall basically remained unchanged, and the mainstream quotation by the end of the week was generally 8000-8200 yuan / ton.

II. Analysis and comment

This week, the adipic acid market was dominated by weak adjustment with little price change. From the basic point of view, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors hindering the rebound of adipic acid market, as well as the upstream raw material market did not bring much boost. At present, the weak demand in the downstream of adipic acid, together with the increase of supply, leads to the increase of social inventory pressure. The market has been in the de stocking stage since October. At present, this process is not over, which is also an important reason why the price has not changed. In terms of region: the market prices in East China and South China have not changed much, and some dealers have slightly weakened, but the range is limited to 50-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, the upstream cost side slightly improved. Pure benzene ended the downward trend of shocks and rebounded slightly, but the strength was not strong, which did not bring much positive effect to the adipic acid market. According to the monitoring of the business club, the price of pure benzene rose 0.76% this week (as shown in the figure below), which may be one of the reasons why the price of adipic acid stopped falling.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

First of all, from the supply side, the market is still dominated by overall oversupply, which is largely affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders. In the early stage of adipic acid rise, dealers have hoarded a large number of sources of goods, resulting in a large inventory pressure. In addition, the plant operating rate of manufacturers is high, the market inventory and the manufacturer’s inventory are high, and the supply pressure is too large, which is the important reason why adipic acid price does not go out of the weak market.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of demand, the downstream procurement has not improved significantly. The traditional “silver ten” market did not arrive on schedule this year. In November, nylon 66 market was depressed. The downstream operating rate continued to decline, basically below 50%, which did not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid has continued to decline since September, as of November 8 , down as much as 6%, (as shown in the figure above) the downturn in the downstream market is the decisive factor for adipic acid to get out of the dilemma.

III. future forecast

According to adipic acid analysts of business, social and chemical branch, whether the adipic acid market can be stabilized remains to be further observed. On the one hand, we need to pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we need to pay attention to whether the downstream demand can be followed up. It is expected that the market will remain depressed in the near future. In the medium term, with the reduction of market inventory pressure, we may see a wave of rebound of adipic acid, but the rebound strength is not expected 。

I. price trend

The atmosphere of domestic BDO market is strong. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of November 7, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9520 yuan / ton, which was stable on a month on month basis, down 11.03% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Products: the domestic BDO market has been consolidated and operated. The factory has a stable mentality and a strong intention to support the market. The middlemen are actively making offers. The downstream just needs a small order to enter the market. The information on the market is relatively flat and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

In terms of market, the BDO market in North China is stuck at a high level, the supply of goods in the field is still not loose, the factory is willing to support the market, the traders are reluctant to sell at a low price, some small orders in the downstream are looking for goods, and the atmosphere of spot negotiation in the field is acceptable. The BDO market in East China is stagnant and consolidated. The suppliers are willing to support the market. The offer is high. The downstream just needs to follow up. The spot negotiation price is on the high side, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. BDO market in South China is firm and consolidated, some factories are well maintained, the supply side is supported, the mentality of the operators is stable, the intention of low delivery is not strong, the downstream just needs to find goods, the small order replenishment enthusiasm is good, and the market transaction atmosphere is fair.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, the delivery of methanol, Inner Mongolia and other upstream enterprises this week is limited, and some of them have been adjusted to near 1850. Linyi heavy pollution, formaldehyde and other downstream demand weakened, the rest of the downstream receiving cautious, some traders replenish the early contract, but most of the losses. Port inventory increased and Ma operated at a low level. To sum up, China’s methanol market or weak decline in the short term.

Calcium carbide: the price of the first-class calcium carbide purchased locally is 2850-3350 yuan / ton in the North China calcium carbide market. The arrival is normal in this area, and the wait-and-see atmosphere of the manufacturer is strong. It is expected that the purchase price of calcium carbide will be adjusted in a narrow range in the later stage.

III. future forecast

On the positive side, the manufacturer is willing to support the market, and crane coal overhauls. On the negative side, downstream demand continued to be weak. BDO analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic BDO market will be narrowed down, with specific attention to the restart of Tianye this month.

On November 6, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on June 6, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On November 5, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 3 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 780-782 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 800-802 US dollars / ton CFR in China. Over 50% of domestic PX plant needs to be imported. The rising price of external market has a certain positive impact on the price of domestic PX market, but the price trend of domestic market is temporarily stable.

WTI crude oil futures market rose on November 6, to $57.23/barrel, or $0.69, while Brent crude oil futures rose to $62.96/barrel, or $0.83. Saudi Arabia’s oil production rebounded in October from an eight year low after its largest crude oil processing plant was attacked by drones According to Bloomberg News Agency’s survey of government officials, ship tracking data and estimates from consulting companies including lesta energy, JBC energy and petro logistics, the 14 member countries of OPEC produced an average of 29.7 million barrels of oil per day in October, an increase of 1.11 million barrels per day over September. The price of crude oil rose and the domestic price of p-xylene was stable. In recent years, the textile industry market has been volatile, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average price of the offer in East China is around 4850-4950 yuan / ton. As of the 5th day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 85%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 87%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general trading atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by crude oil price The market price of PTA in the downstream is slightly lower due to the shock, and it is expected that the market price of PX will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

On November 5, the PX commodity index was 54.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.88% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 19.43% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, on May 5, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun was stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou was stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi was started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang was started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant was overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical was put into operation, and other units were temporarily stable. As the new plant was put into operation, domestic The market supply of xylene is normal, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On November 4, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 12 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 777-779 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 797-799 US dollars / ton CFR in China. Over 50% of domestic PX plant needs to be imported. The rising price of foreign PX plant has a certain positive impact on the price of domestic PX market, but the price trend in domestic market is stable temporarily.

On November 4, WTI crude oil futures market rose to 56.54 US dollars / barrel, or 0.34 US dollars, while Brent crude oil futures rose to 62.13 US dollars / barrel, or 0.04 US dollars. As Saudi Arabia recovered rapidly after its largest crude oil processing plant was attacked by drones, the oil production of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in October rebounded from an eight year low In October, the total output of Russian crude oil was 47.49 million tons, higher than 46.043 million tons in September. As September was one day less than October, the domestic price trend of p-xylene was stable. In recent years, the textile industry has been in a volatile market, the PTA Market operating rate has declined, and the PTA price trend has remained low. The average price of the offer in East China is around 4850-4950 yuan / ton. As of the 4th day, the domestic PTA operating rate is about 85%, and the polyester industry operating rate is about 87%. Due to the sufficient supply in PTA field and the general trading atmosphere, the purchase is dominated by traders, followed by sporadic polyester factories, and affected by crude oil price The market price of PTA in the downstream is slightly lower due to the shock, and it is expected that the market price of PX will maintain 6800 yuan / ton in the short term.

On November 4, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 87.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 37.71% from 140.43 (2018-02-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 63.24% from 53.59, the lowest point on November 30, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. Up to now, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 9640 yuan / ton, and the operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. The enterprise reflects that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the field is sufficient at present, and the goods in the hydrofluoric acid field can not be moved in the near future. Because the downstream demand is not improved, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers’ prices are stuck, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid remains at a low level, the supply of spot goods is sufficient, but the demand is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains at a low level.

The price of fluorite in the upstream market remained at a low level. As of the 4th day, the price of fluorite was 2877.78 yuan / ton. The fluctuation of upstream raw material price brought limited support to the hydrofluoric acid market. The price of hydrofluoric acid market was slightly lower due to the low price of raw material fluorite. In the near future, the trading market of downstream refrigerants in the terminal market is general, and the domestic market price of refrigerant R22 remains low. From the perspective of market supply, the market price of refrigerant R22 continues to be weak, the manufacturer’s production device reduces the starting load, the market supply capacity has declined, and the inventory pressure has been slowed down. In terms of demand, the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers only reduced the demand without increasing, and the mainstream price of domestic large enterprises is 12000-13000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is at a low level, the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains at a low level, the market demand for refrigerants is reduced, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the transaction price in the market keeps falling, the merchants purchase on demand, the peak season ends, the downstream demand of the terminal only decreases but not increases, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market declines. However, the transaction price in the market is low, and businesses purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, the downstream demand is not improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

The transaction situation in the refrigerant market is poor, the unit operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low, the demand for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market is limited, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, but the manufacturer reflects that the loss is relatively serious, and Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may maintain a low level.

I. price trend of acrylic acid:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the acrylic acid market fell this week. As of November 1, the average price of acrylic acid was 6933.33 yuan / ton, down 5.88% compared with that at the beginning of the week (October 28). In a three-month cycle, it fell 9.57% year-on-year. One day, the main price of acrylic acid in China was 6900-7000 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: acrylic market is down this week. This week, the supply side of acrylic acid market is sufficient, but the downstream manufacturers’ operating rate is low, the overall demand is weak, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. As of January 1, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. has been temporarily stable, with 8200 yuan / ton of common acid and 8850 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is determined by the actual contract. Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. has 7500 yuan / ton of common acid and 9400 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is determined by the actual contract. The price of acrylic acid of Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has remained stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. At present, acrylic acid The price is 7000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the market price (10.28-11.1) of the upstream propylene in Shandong fell by 2.90% this week. The price of propylene began to decline from the end of October. On the first day, it continued to fall by 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is about 7100-7450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7150 yuan / ton. Acrylic downstream construction load is not high, the demand side is light, the market just needs to buy, mostly according to the contract, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 43rd week of 2019 (10.28-11.1), there are 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are two kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are dichloromethane (9.58%), sulfuric acid (6.98%) and aniline (4.24%). There are 40 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 4.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are DMF (- 7.88%), butadiene (- 6.73%) and acrylic acid (- 5.88%). This week’s average was – 0.61%.

3. Future forecast:

Analysts of acrylic acid of business association believe that in the near future, raw material propylene is in a downturn, cost support is insufficient, and acrylic acid spot supply is sufficient, but downstream demand is weak. It is expected that acrylic acid market will be dominated by weak operation in the short term.