On September 15, the fluorite commodity index was 101.75, which was the same as yesterday. It was 20.19% lower than the cyclical peak of 127.49 points (2019-01-03), and 106.77% higher than the lowest point of 49.21 on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices have declined, with an average price of 2888.89 yuan/ton as of 16 days. Recently, domestic fluorite plants have been operating normally, mines and flotation plants have been operating normally, fluorite supply is sufficient, hydrofluoric acid prices in the downstream have been kept low in the near future. For fluorite market, on-demand purchasing and fluorite goods are on the market. Poor condition, fluorite market prices fell. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, the spot supply of fluorite in the field is sufficient, the downstream demand of terminal is not improving, resulting in a decline in market prices. As of the 16th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-2900 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, and the price of fluorite declined.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite maintained a low trend. As of 16 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10 370 yuan/ton. The low market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite has weakened and the price of fluorite has declined. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased, and the price of domestic large enterprises has fallen to 14,000-14,500 yuan per ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined but not increased, and the price affected by the fluorite market declined.

Generally speaking, the downstream refrigerant industry is declining, and the supply of fluorite market is sufficient, and the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may continue to decline.

Price quotation: According to the monitoring data of business association (100ppi.com), on September 2, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (cationic) market was about 16333.33 yuan/ton, and on the 13th, 16333.33 yuan/ton. At present, the main quotation range of domestic market of polyacrylamide is: cationic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 16200-18100 yuan/ton, anionic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 10000-12100 yuan/ton. Prices are basically stable.

Industry chain: It is understood that in the first half of September, the price of acrylonitrile in the upstream mainstream is about 13500-12500 yuan/ton, with a slight fluctuation in the market. The downstream demand for polyacrylamide is stable, because the manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan Province, which is the main production area in China, are still in the shutdown period, and have been shut down for more than a month, the supply of goods is relatively tight, the manufacturers give priority to the old customers, the market development of new customers is delayed or suspended, and the external prices of some manufacturers are raised to varying degrees according to the situation of the supply.

Industry: 1. Notice of shutdown: On July 26, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province received the “Notice of shutdown”. The notice requests: According to the analysis of the environmental pollution situation and the future polluted weather situation in the city, the municipal attack and fortification office requires all the enterprises to stop production and control before acceptance. Production can be restored after dispatching or acceptance. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: resumption of production in August for 10 days and resumption of production on 15 days. According to the manufacturer, the suspension was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on 8 September. The local environmental protection inspection was strict. All local enterprises in Gongyi were asked to stop production for environmental protection management and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers were not notified of the start of construction. Strict environmental protection inspections were under way. According to the manufacturers, the current shortage of goods was aggravated after the National Day of the Eleventh National Day.

Attachment: Gongyi City, Henan Province, issued a circular on the deep management of enterprise shutdown (see below):

Future forecast: as the main production area of Gongyi City, Henan Province, the relevant manufacturers are still in the production suspension period, the inventory of manufacturers to maintain the demand of old customers, supply gradually tense, the impact on prices will gradually increase, the early quotation for new customers increased significantly, follow-up because of the shortage of inventory, the price of old customers may also have. Rising.

Since the third quarter of 2019, the acetone market has risen rapidly. Take the market offer in East China as an example. According to the monitoring of business associations, the market offer in East China on July 1 was 3100 yuan/ton, up to 4250 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 37%. As follows:
Tendency Map of Acetone Manufacturers’Listing and Offering in East China

Tendency chart of national acetone market offer

As of September 11, the offer of acetone in various markets in China is as follows:

Regional Price Increase and Decline
East China 4250+100
Shandong Province 4250+150
Yanshan Peripheral Area 4150+50
South China 4300 + 100
The reason for the upstream market lies in the upward pull of cost and the high start of construction in the downstream industry.

1. Upstream raw material pure benzene entered July and also entered the fast ascending channel. According to the monitoring of business associations, the offer on July 1 was 4820 yuan/ton, and the average price on September 11 was 5531 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 14.75%. On the one hand, there is a shortage of pure benzene supply in the United States, and pure benzene from Korea is arbitraged to the United States, resulting in a reduction in the import of pure benzene from China, a sharp decline in port stocks and import volume, and the domestic price of pure benzene has begun to rise. On the other hand, domestic pure benzene stocks have declined and supply is tight.

2. The downstream isopropanol has risen sharply since the third quarter. According to the monitoring of business associations, the market price in East China offered 4100 yuan/ton on July 1 and nearly 6200 yuan/ton on September 11, with an overall increase of 31%.

At present, the profit of isopropanol plant is relatively objective, the start-up rate of the whole industry is relatively high, and the market demand for raw material acetone is also increasing. At present, other products downstream of acetone are starting to work smoothly, the purchase of acetone in isopropanol industry is at a high level, and the improvement of market atmosphere is gradually pushing up the acetone market, as can be seen from the figure below. The downstream is positively correlated. Since the third quarter, the market price trend of acetone and isopropanol is as follows:

3. Up to now, the starting rate of phenol ketone enterprises in China is about 80%. Yanshan Petrochemical 300,000 tons/year plant plan to stop and repair after Mid-Autumn Festival to National Day. Blue Star Harbin 150,000 tons/year phenol ketone plant and Shanghai Xisa Chemical 400,000 tons/year phenol ketone plant were all up to 80% of the operation. Port stocks are low, ocean-going costs are high, external prices are high, and imports are reduced except for contracts.

In summary, the current phenol ketone stimulus momentum is rising, and the market offer is constantly rising, but in terms of profit margin, phenol ketone factories with higher raw material costs have lower profit margin, so there is still room for phenol ketone to rise in the short term. Cost support, active downstream procurement, phenol ketone market is expected to remain high or continue to rise before the holidays.

Price trends:

On September 6, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 57.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.73% from the peak of 102.01 points in the cycle (2014-01-09), and up 28.82% from the low of 44.56 points on August 31, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2013-12-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic hydrobenzene market rose this week (9.02-9.06). The average domestic market price was 516.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5200 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.63%.

Domestic market: Hydrobenzene enterprises started normal work this week. Several hydrobenzene enterprises in Shandong Province have resumed production. Hydrobenzene enterprises are now profitable, generally active in starting work, and their enthusiasm for production is still acceptable. The price of hydrotoluene and hydroxylene has risen by 300-400 yuan/ton from last week. As of Friday, the hydrobenzene market in Shandong Province ranged from 5100 to 5250 yuan/ton, with an average price of 5175 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: This week, international oil prices rose rapidly after a sharp fall, the overall decline was slightly lower than last Friday, Brent fell by 0.62%, WTI fell by 0.79%. Oil prices plunged as European and American manufacturing data sparked fears of global economic weakness and trade disputes. On Wednesday, news from the United States and Iraq warmed up and increased supply risk and oil prices rose rapidly. Pure benzene: This week, the inventory of pure benzene in eastern China fell again, the supply of market resources was tight, and the price of pure benzene was well supported. The downstream East China styrene plant was shut down for production and maintenance, which led to the limited replenishment of hydrobenzene resources in eastern China, which was good for driving up the price of pure benzene. The weak external support at the beginning of the week led to a cautious attitude in the domestic market. Following the rise of international oil price, the price of pure benzene on the outer plate increased. The Asian-American arbitrage window is still open, but the shortage of resources in the early stage has eased and its influence on the market is limited.

3. Trend forecast:

Near National Day, the environmental protection situation in North China and its surrounding areas is becoming increasingly tense. In addition, transportation in the surrounding areas will be affected. Under the influence of small rebound of pure benzene outer plate and rising listing price of Sinopec pure benzene, there is still room for a slight increase in hydrobenzene market.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic dry-process aluminium fluoride market prices remained stable this week, with an average market price of 10333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 10333 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.0% from last week.

II. Market Analysis

The price of aluminium fluoride has been stable this week: at present, the price of aluminium fluoride in Henan is between 1000 and 10400 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong is between 1000 and 10400 yuan/ton. Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. quoted 11,000 yuan per ton of aluminium fluoride, Shandong Luzeng Chemical Aluminum Fluoride to 11,000 yuan per ton, Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Aluminum Fluoride to 10,500 yuan per ton.

Industry Chain: Hydrofluoric acid prices continued to decline this week, the recent poor market situation of manufacturers, downstream refrigerant industry start-up rate remains low, for domestic hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, coupled with domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintain a high start-up rate, domestic spot supply is sufficient, some manufacturers continue to downgrade out of the factory. Price, as of the end of the weekend, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is 9500-10000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10000 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices have fallen, but this week the prices of aluminium fluoride products are still running steadily downstream. And in September, the majority of enterprises’production is to prepare in advance for the National Day reduction and shutdown. Aluminum fluoride manufacturers are currently mainly at competitive prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of Aluminum Fluoride Industry of Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid continues to retreat, but Aluminum fluoride manufacturers are constrained by the reasons for the reduction, and the price of Aluminum Fluoride is expected to continue to run steadily next week.

I. Lithium hydroxide price trend:

According to the data from the business associations’list, the market price of lithium hydroxide fell this week. At present, the mainstream price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide is about 66000-74000 yuan/ton, which is 6.14% lower than that at the beginning of the week and 7.76% lower than that on August 6.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Lithium hydroxide market prices fell. At present, the production capacity of lithium hydroxide has been improved, the supply side is sufficient, the demand side is consumed slowly, the follow-up of the transaction is insufficient, the low-end offer in the field increases under the pressure of shipment, and the center of gravity of the actual single delivery weakens. At present, the quotation for industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Shanghai is 68,000 yuan/ton, for industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Shanghai Oujin is 72,000 yuan/ton, and for industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Aiheng (Shanghai) Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. is 66,000 yuan/ton. The specific price is one-sided.

Industry chain: The weekly rise and fall of industrial lithium carbonate and battery lithium carbonate are -6.00% and -4.78% respectively in the upstream this week. This week’s lithium carbonate market showed a high capacity, but demand did not meet expectations, lithium carbonate market is still dominated by low-cost shipments.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 35th week (9.2-9.6) of 2019, there were 31 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 8 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were butanone (13.06%), yellow phosphorus (11.51%) and mixed xylene (8.50%). There are 21 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are trichloromethane (-8.16%), lithium hydroxide (-6.14%) and lithium carbonate (-6.00%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.61%.

3. Future market forecast:

Lithium hydroxide analysts believe that the upstream market of lithium carbonate has weakened again this week, and the cost support of lithium hydroxide has weakened. And the terminal market demand is slow, and the follow-up of lithium hydroxide is insufficient. It is expected that the lithium hydroxide Market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term.

On September 5, the fluorite commodity index was 104.17, down 0.44 points from yesterday, down 18.29% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 111.68% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend slightly declined, the average domestic fluorite price was 2968.75 yuan/ton on the 5th day, the recent domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant started normally, the fluorite supply was sufficient, the recent downstream hydrofluoric acid prices continued to decline, for the fluorite market to purchase on demand, fluorite field walk. Goods situation is poor, fluorite market prices continue to decline. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream demand is not improving, resulting in a decline in market prices. As of the 5th day, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2800-3000 yuan/ton, that in Fujian is 2800-3000 yuan/ton, that in Henan is 2800-3000 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangxi is 2800-3100 yuan/ton. The price trend of 97 fluorite wet powder is slightly lower.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite maintained a low trend. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10 370 yuan/ton as of the 5th day. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite has weakened and the price of fluorite has decreased. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased, and the price of domestic large enterprises has fallen to 14,000-14,500 yuan per ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, businesses purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined but not increased, the fluorite market affected prices remain low.

Generally speaking, the downstream refrigerant industry is declining, and the supply of fluorite market is sufficient, and the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may continue to decline.

On September 4, the rare earth index was 377 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 62.30% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 39.11% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals increased by 5,000 yuan per ton from 4.065 million yuan per ton; dysprosium metal by 2.3 million yuan per ton; and praseodymium metal by 695,000 yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides increased by 1500 yuan/ton to 325,000 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide price was 191,000 yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide price was 382,500 yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide price was increased by 1500 yuan/ton to 325,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys increased by 5,000 yuan/ton to 465,000 yuan/ton, while the average price of dysprosium-iron alloys was 1.91 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of light rare earth has been rising continuously, but the market price of heavy rare earth has remained stable, the domestic rare earth market has been generally trading, the price of dysprosium-terbium metal oxides has remained volatile, the inquiry list of praseodymium oxide has increased recently, and the price of light rare earth oxides has maintained an upward trend. At that time, light rare earth merchants in the field regretted it. Sales sentiment, bullish future market, recent on-site transactions in general. The supply of rare earth is normal in China. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which make the environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market input of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, with normal supply and stable price trend in the rare earth market. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general, but for products. Pricing major manufacturers are also cautious.

Recently, the national environmental protection department has made great efforts to investigate the rare earth industry, which has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The starting situation of the rare earth industry is relatively low, and the market is cold. In addition, the recent rectification of the rare earth industry in Jiangxi Province, a major province of rare earth production, has brought some favorable support to the rare earth market. Recently, the Development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have stepped up effective measures to regulate the industry, innovate and improve the relevant management mechanism, accelerate the construction of a rational industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective protection of resources, orderly production and operation of the industry development pattern, and give full play to the special price of rare earth as a strategic resource. Meanwhile, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and national reserves.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental stringency will not decrease in the near future, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, the supply of Jiangxi rare earth industry will be reduced, but the demand of rare earth downstream will be supported in the near future, and the price of some rare earth market is expected to rise.

Price Trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market has a narrow fluctuation. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 13 500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 135 0150 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price of aggregate MDI fell by 2.59% in the month, 23.99% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In August, domestic aggregated MDI prices fluctuated slightly, showing a first fall and then rise. Ring prices fell by 500-800 yuan/ton compared with July. At present, the market price is around 12600 yuan/ton for Shanghai goods and 13200 yuan/ton for Wanhua goods. Based on Wanhua’s early announcement of settlement price in early August, the overall market price declined slightly under cost support. In fact, the mentality of traders is not good throughout the month. Some middlemen are not lack of low-cost goods, so it is safe to drop bags. However, due to cost constraints, agents generally offer high prices, careful delivery.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: this month, pure benzene first fell and then rose, the external market rose and domestic supply decreased to support the price rebound. At the beginning of this month, commodities fell as a whole and pure benzene weakened under the pressure of negative macroeconomic news, such as unoptimistic expectations of Sino-US negotiations and depreciation of the RMB. The sharp drop in crude oil also led to the weakening of the outer plate of pure benzene. As a result, the price of pure benzene has continued to decline. Downstream users wait for Sinopec to cut prices, wait and see, market turnover is weak. At the beginning of this month, there were still sporadic transactions of 5000 yuan/ton, but then driven by the low-price supply in Shandong Province, the market buying gravity dropped to 4900-4950 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were 37 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%). There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: In August, stimulated by the release of good news from supplier factories, market prices were supported by this “fairy spirit” and survived through August. Supplier factories are still in a good market in September, but demand side is hard to change at present. Business associations aggregate MDI analysts expect that short-term aggregate MDI market prices will be stable, and look forward to the price guidelines of Koth founder and Basf supplier policies and settlement prices at the beginning of the month.

On September 2, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 95.55, down 1.82 points from yesterday, down 31.96% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 78.30% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline, up to the present domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 530 yuan/ton, the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Enterprises reflect that there is sufficient supply of hydrofluoric acid spot source in the field at present, but in the near future, there is no moving goods in the field. Recently, due to poor downstream demand, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers Continuous price cuts, hydrofluoric acid market prices continue to fall. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 9500-10000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices continue to decline, spot supply is sufficient, but the demand situation is poor, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined.

The price of fluorite in the upstream was slightly lower. As of the 2nd day, the price of fluorite was 2981.25 yuan/ton. The low price of raw materials in the upstream had a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. The price of hydrofluoric acid market was affected by the lower price of raw materials fluorite. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, the downstream air conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased, and the price of domestic large enterprises has dropped to 14,000-15,000 yuan per ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, on-site transaction prices are lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to decline.