In December 2018, rubber prices rose as trade tensions between the United States and China cooled. However, as the world economy is still facing multiple risks, the rubber market is under pressure of falling prices.

Wu Huangying, secretary-general of the Vietnamese Rubber Association, said that although there were still many difficulties, the export volume of natural rubber, rubber products and rubber wood was increasing. He disclosed that the rubber price subsidy will continue to be implemented between now and March 1, when the United States and China withdrew from the tax increase.

Looking ahead to the first half of 2019, the export of Vietnamese rubber to China, the largest market, will also slow down as China’s economic growth slows down. In order to achieve sustainable growth of rubber export, he suggested that Vietnamese enterprises should take the initiative to expand the market and avoid excessive dependence on the Chinese market.

According to the statistics of Vietnam Customs General Administration, in December 2018, Vietnam’s rubber export volume reached 190,000 tons, with an export volume of 230 million US dollars. Its export volume and export volume increased by 5.8% and 2.9% annually, while its export volume increased by 12.7% and its export volume decreased by 5.6% year-on-year.

The PX commodity index was 70.20 on Feb. 13, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.45% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 54.12% from the low of 45.55 points on Feb. 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has been restarted. Other plants have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. The market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On February 13, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 17 US dollars per ton. The closing price is 1074-1076 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 1093-1095 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The domestic market price maintains 8800 yuan per ton.

On February 13, the price of WTI crude oil in March rose to 53.90 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.80 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil in April rose to 63.61 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.19 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices rose slightly, which has a certain supporting role for the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of xylene market is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry is in a general market, PTA prices rose on the 14th. The average price of offer in East China is raised near 6700-6850 yuan/ton. As of the 13th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 80%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 77%. In addition, the hobby sales rate is low. The PTA market price is rising. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain 8800 yuan/ton in the later period.

On February 12, the PX commodity index was 70.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.45% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 54.12% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has been restarted. Other plants have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. The market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene market in Asia increased by 3 US dollars/ton on February 12. The closing price is US$109-1092/ton FOB in Korea and US$1112/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rising price of foreign units has a good support for the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the intra market price maintains 8,800 yuan/ton.

On February 12, the price of WTI crude oil in March rose to 53.10 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.69 U.S. dollars. The price of Brent crude oil in April rose to 62.42 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.91 U.S. dollars. Crude oil price rose slightly, which lost some support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of paraxylene market was temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry is in a general market, PTA prices rose on the 13th day. The average price of East China is raised near 6700-6850 yuan/ton. As of the 12th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 80%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 77%. In addition, the hobby sales rate is low, the PTA market price rises, and the PX market price is expected to maintain 8800 yuan/ton in the later period.

Price Trend

In 2018, the price of NBR rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the year, the price was 1,950 yuan/ton, and then continued to rise to 2,296 yuan/ton on October 9. Then it fell all the way to 2,0733 yuan/ton at the end of the year, up 6.32% from the beginning of the year.

Specifically, it can be divided into three stages: the first stage, before and after the Spring Festival of the lunar calendar at the beginning of the year, the start-up rate of manufacturers dropped sharply, the supply side of the market was tight, which promoted the price of NBR to rise to the end of March and the beginning of April. With the recovery of the start-up rate of manufacturers after the Spring Festival, the supply side of the market was loose and the overall price trend slowed down.

The second stage started in July. On the one hand, due to the influence of the Ministry of Commerce on the anti-dumping time of imported NBR, on the other hand, the start-up rate of NBR manufacturers decreased again in July and August, which pushed NBR prices up all the way to mid-October.

In the third stage, in the fourth quarter of 2018, on the one hand, the downstream market demand of NBR was weak, on the other hand, the price of raw material butadiene fell sharply in the fourth quarter, which suppressed the price of NBR. NBR prices have fallen all the way to the end of the year.

II. Market Trend Analysis

Product aspect: In 2018, the domestic NBR start-up rate fluctuates from top to bottom. The NBR start-up rate is relatively low before and after the Lunar New Year and in mid-July and August. Supply pressure pushes up the NBR price at the beginning of the year.

Policy aspects: the first anti-dumping landing of NBR on July 16, 2018, and the final anti-dumping landing of NBR on November 8, 2018. Since November 9, 2018, anti-dumping duties have been levied on imported NBR originating in Korea and Japan.

Raw materials: Butadiene prices fluctuated mainly in 2018, rising in waves in the first three quarters, and declining sharply in the fourth quarter. The price fluctuation of raw material butadiene, to a certain extent, has driven the price fluctuation of NBR from the cost side.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst at Business Agencies, believes that in 2019, the profit and loss factors of NBR are intertwined. On the one hand, the downward pressure of domestic economy in 2019 is still on the one hand, and the downstream demand of NBR is still on the other hand.