In its annual energy outlook report, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) said the United States would become a net exporter of energy next year, for the first time in 70 years, as its crude oil and gas production increased and domestic demand decreased.

The EIA also predicts that U.S. crude oil output will increase year by year in the next decade, setting a new record. Until 2027, U.S. crude oil production growth will stabilize.

EIA’s annual energy outlook report is a forecast of the energy situation in the next 50 years. In last year’s annual outlook report, the EIA predicted that the United States would become a net energy importer in 2022, which was two years ahead of schedule in this year’s report. In the EIA annual report of 2017, the EIA predicts that the United States will not achieve net energy imports until 2026. According to EIA data, the United States has been a net energy importer since 1953.

According to the report, in the fourth quarter of 2020, U.S. crude oil and petroleum products exports will exceed imports, and its total net exports of crude oil and refined products will reach 1.2 million barrels a day. But by the end of the 50-year period, due to the needs of economic development, the U.S. crude oil imports will again exceed exports.

EIA data show that in 2018, the average U.S. crude oil production reached 10.9 million barrels per day, breaking the 1970 record of 9.6 million barrels per day. EIA predicts that when U.S. crude oil production reaches 14 million barrels per day, U.S. crude oil production will remain above that level until 2040.

In 2017, the United States became a net exporter of natural gas. EIA predicts that future U.S. natural gas exports will continue to grow, mainly due to increased LNG shipments. From 2018 to 2020, U.S. natural gas exports will increase by more than 50%, of which LNG exports will increase from 3 billion cubic feet a day to 6.8 billion cubic feet.

EIA predicts that the United States will remain a net exporter of coal by 2050, but because of competition from other countries, U.S. coal shipments will not increase.

At the end of November last year, the United States briefly realized net exports of crude oil and refined oil. EIA data showed that in the week of November 30, U.S. crude oil exports reached an all-time high, becoming net exporters for the first time in 75 years, and the new EIA forecast means that this phenomenon will become normal in 2020.

Increasing U.S. crude oil production will also put greater pressure on OPEC+. OPEC + will have to extend production reduction plans to stabilize supply and demand in the crude oil market.

EIA data show that in 2018, the average U.S. crude oil production reached 10.9 million barrels per day, breaking the 1970 record of 9.6 million barrels per day. EIA predicts that when U.S. crude oil production reaches 14 million barrels per day, U.S. crude oil production will remain above that level until 2040.

In 2017, the United States became a net exporter of natural gas. EIA predicts that future U.S. natural gas exports will continue to grow, mainly due to increased LNG shipments. From 2018 to 2020, U.S. natural gas exports will increase by more than 50%, of which LNG exports will increase from 3 billion cubic feet a day to 6.8 billion cubic feet.

EIA predicts that the United States will remain a net exporter of coal by 2050, but because of competition from other countries, U.S. coal shipments will not increase.

At the end of November last year, the United States briefly realized net exports of crude oil and refined oil. EIA data showed that in the week of November 30, U.S. crude oil exports reached an all-time high, becoming net exporters for the first time in 75 years, and the new EIA forecast means that this phenomenon will become normal in 2020.

Increasing U.S. crude oil production will also put greater pressure on OPEC+. OPEC + will have to extend production reduction plans to stabilize supply and demand in the crude oil market.

Price Trend

The domestic BDO market fell sharply. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, as of January 23, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9,600 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic BDO market has declined significantly. In front of the Spring Festival, there was a strong atmosphere of waiting and watching, and the downstream markets were withdrawn one after another. The enthusiasm of taking over the offer was not high. The discussion was cold and the promotion was general. It is expected that the short-term BDO market will still be dominated by weak consolidation. In terms of price, the mainstream offer in East China and North China is 9600-10000 yuan/ton, the real unit price is 9300-9500 yuan/ton, and the barreler negotiates 10300-10500 yuan/ton. South China offers 9600-10000 yuan/ton, real unit price 9300-9600 yuan/ton, barreler bargaining price 10300-10600 yuan/ton.

On the market side, the BDO market in North China continues to be depressed. The main factories are self-use and long contract, the overall performance of the goods is general. Downstream just need to support the market, small single replenishment is the main. The BDO market in East China is weak and stable. Price range operation, little change. Upstream raw materials support is insufficient, terminal demand is limited, downstream just need small orders follow-up, the volume of real orders is flat, some traders have closed. The trend of BDO market in South China is stable. There is no good news on the market and the price has not been adjusted significantly. The downstream construction is inadequate, the performance is not good, the trading atmosphere is weak, and the shipment mentality of the industry is cautious before the festival.

Industry chain: In terms of raw materials, the carbide Market in Inner Mongolia has increased slightly, and the mainstream factory price of local first-class carbide is about 2600-2700 yuan/ton. In some areas, the power limit is serious, the stock consumption is fast, and the downstream receiving capacity is weak. Overall analysis, the market price of calcium carbide is expected to be stable in the later period.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, upstream calcium carbide has upward expectations; downstream PBT orders are good. In short-term, just need to trade; downstream construction is inadequate, production and marketing is depressed. Business agency BDO analysts predict that short-term weak operation of the BDO market is dominant.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of January 22, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 12900 yuan/ton. The overall market was stable and small, with the price falling by 58.19% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregate MDI market is stable and small. North China and East China Wanhua negotiated 12800-13000 yuan/ton, Shanghai negotiated 12500 yuan/ton, South China Wanhua negotiated 12800 yuan/ton, and Shanghai negotiated 12500-12600 yuan/ton. I heard that a small number of individual enterprises are delivering goods, but the market spot is still limited, coupled with the early departure of the terminal, market inquiries have weakened obviously, and the intention of intermediaries is not high.

On the market side, North China Polymerized MDI market is on the lookout. Middlemen are cautious about market changes, rarely hear of the latest offers, and sporadic offers are mainly stable. The downstream market leaves the market ahead of schedule, and the atmosphere of market inquiry becomes weak. East China Polymerization MDI market offer is stable. Market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, sporadic operators maintain stable shipment, but downstream just need weaker, inquiry atmosphere is weak. South China Polymerization MDI Market Maintains Steady Delivery. Middlemen offer cautious, sporadic offer stability, but some downstream early departure, market inquiries are weak.

Industry chain: In terms of raw materials, the East China aniline Market is deadlocked. Nanhua and Xinpu have limited market volume. Purchasing on demand is the main method in the lower reaches of East China. The atmosphere of market transaction is general, and the stable price of factory delivery is the main method.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, the factory has a limited capacity, the market is very tight spot, and the overhaul and recovery device has a low load. On the bearish side, terminal demand is weak, and the enthusiasm of downstream and middlemen to hoard goods is weakened after price increases. Business Association aggregate MDI analysts expect that in the short term aggregate MDI market rise and fall dilemma, mainly stalemate.

On January 21, the price of acetone in Europe was stable, and the price of FD in Northwest Europe was 647.5-652.5 euros/ton.

On January 21, the closing price of propylene market in the Far East remained stable. FOB Korea closed at $923-929 a ton, unchanged; CFR China closed at $957-965 a ton, unchanged.

On January 21, the closing price of propylene market in Europe and America rose slightly. The closing price of FD in the U.S. Gulf is between US$563 and 587 per ton. The closing price of FD in Northwest Europe is between Euro 919 and 928 per ton. The closing price of CIF in Northwest Europe is between Euro 919 and Euro 3 per ton.

The closing price of phenol in Asia was stable on January 18, with CIF prices ranging from US$944 to US$946 per ton.

The Rotterdam phenol market closed stable on January 18, with CIF prices ranging from $1059.5 to $1064.5 per ton.

On January 18, the closing price of methanol in Europe and the United States fell, with methanol FOB in the Gulf of the United States 99.75-100.25 cents/gallon, and methanol FOB in Rotterdam, Europe, 274-275 euros/ton, down 3.5 euros/ton.

Foreign media reported on January 17 that Rio Tinto PLC, one of the world’s largest mining companies, released its operation report for 2018 on Thursday.

According to the company’s report, copper production in mines in 2018 was 633,500 tons, an increase of 33% over the previous year. It is estimated that the output of copper in mines will be between 550,000 and 600,000 tons in 2019, and that of refined copper will be between 220,000 and 250,000 tons in 2019.

For its Kennecott Copper Mine, the company said last year’s copper production grew by 37% year-on-year, as mining continued to be active in a high-grade open-pit copper production area and production efficiency improved.

Rio Tinto said that bauxite production in 2018 was 50.4 million tons, a slight decline of 1% from the previous year, and at the top of the guidance range. Weipa’s Gove and Andom mining areas have strong output, offsetting the other two mines’sluggish output.

The latest Amun project launched its first shipment six weeks ahead of schedule and shipped a total of nine 600,000 tons of bauxite by the end of 2018.