First, the price trend

According to business news monitoring data, as of May 8, the average price of domestic ethanol market reported 5323 yuan/ton, the domestic ethanol market is mainly stable.

II. Market Analysis Products: Domestic alcohol market price hold steady.

Northeast Jilin Corn ethanol to maintain a firm, factory shipments stable, the mentality to maintain a firm, Shandong region wheat alcohol slightly raised other to maintain a stable, east China’s price is stable, downstream demand is light; South China downstream demand maintenance just need to purchase, the market has a low price burst, the enterprise shipping situation in general. Industrial chain: Corn: The recent production area surplus food continued to decline, in the early collection of high-cost background traders have reluctant sentiment, and policy benefits, the corn market stage supply will be gradually transferred from loose tightening, the spot market to form a positive boost.

Ethyl acetate: Domestic ethyl Acetate Market weak finishing, market supply is still oversupplied difficult to ease, downstream wait-and-see mentality strong, the market single transaction in a small number of cases, ethyl acetate market forced to continue to be weak.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Downstream chemical under the influence of environmental protection, short-term difficult to pick up, liquor with the recovery of temperature after the demand is lighter, the Northeast enterprises are mostly in the cost line or cost line below, East China long-term losses, raw materials in terms Business agency ethanol analysts expect much of the domestic ethanol market to remain weak in the short term.

May 6 The PX Commodity Index was 60.00, the same as yesterday, down 41.41% from 102.4 at the highest point in the cycle (2013-02-28), up 31.72% from its lowest 45.55 point on February 15, 2016.

(Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to date). 7th domestic to Xylene market price trend temporary stability, the field installation Pengzhou petrochemical plant operation is stable, Urumqi petrochemical plant started 50%, Fuhai invasive aromatic device driving a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refining Plant Maintenance, Hengli petrochemical PX device put into production, other devices temporarily stable operation, As a result of the new installation of domestic paraxylene market supply normal, the market price trend of xylene is temporarily stable. The operating rate of PX devices in Asia was around 80%, and the Asian region was down 6 US dollars/ton on May 6, with a closing price of 885-887 USD/ton FOB Korea and 904-906 US dollar/ton CFR China, more than 50% of the domestic need to import,

The low price of foreign plate has a certain negative effect on the domestic market price of xylene, and the price trend of xylene in the field is stable. May 6 May 6, the United States WTI crude oil June futures market prices rose, reported 62.25 U.S. dollars/barrels, the increase of 0.31 U.S. dollars, Brent crude oil July futures prices rose, reported 71.24 U.S. dollars/Barrels, The increase is 0.39 U.S. dollars, crude oil price trend rise, for the downstream petrochemical product prices have a certain cost support role, the xylene market price trend is temporarily stable. Recent textile industry market stability, PTA price 7th trend Shock, East China newspaper average price in 6700-6800 yuan/ton near self-mention, as of 6th domestic PTA start rate in about 80%, polyester industry start rate of about 91%, downstream production and sales rate to maintain a high, but the PTA market price changes are not big, The late PX market price is expected to remain volatile.

May 5 The PX Commodity Index was 60.00, the same as yesterday, down 41.41% from 102.4 at the highest point in the cycle (2013-02-28), up 31.72% from its lowest 45.55 point on February 15, 2016.

(Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to date). 6th domestic to Xylene market price trend temporary stability, the field installation Pengzhou petrochemical plant operation is stable, Urumqi petrochemical plant started 50%, Fuhai invasive aromatic device driving a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refining Plant Maintenance, Hengli petrochemical PX device put into production, other devices temporarily stable operation, As a result of the new installation of domestic paraxylene market supply normal, the market price trend of xylene is temporarily stable. The operating rate of PX devices in Asia was around 80%, and the Asian region was down 28 US dollars/ton on May 3, with a closing price of 892-894 USD/ton FOB Korea and 911-913 US dollar/ton CFR China, more than 50% of the domestic need to import,

The low price of foreign plate has a certain negative effect on the domestic market price of xylene, and the price trend of xylene in the field is stable. May 3 U.S. WTI crude oil June futures market prices rose, reported 61.94 U.S. dollars/barrels, the increase of 0.13 U.S. dollars, Brent crude oil July futures prices fell, reported 70.85 U.S. dollars/Barrels, The decline was 0.10 U.S. dollars, crude oil prices rose, for the downstream petrochemical product prices have a certain cost support role, the xylene market price trend is temporarily stable. Recently the textile industry market stability, PTA price 6th trend Rise, East China’s average price in 6700-6800 yuan/ton near self-mention, as of 6th domestic PTA start rate of about 78%, polyester industry start rate of about 91%, downstream production and sales rate to maintain a high, but the PTA market price changes are not big, The late PX market price is expected to remain volatile.

The Ammonium Nitrate Commodity Index of May 4 was 107.02, the same as yesterday, down 9.63% from 118.42 at the highest point in the cycle (2019-01-15), up 38.32% from the lowest 77.37 point on October 31, 2016.

(Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to present) Recently, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend to maintain a low, affected by environmental control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shutdown more, domestic ammonium nitrate device driving less, but recently with the warmer weather, the northern gas limit effect disappeared, coupled with the domestic downstream civil explosion industry all shut down, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers inventory more, the price trend in the field decline.

As of 5th domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many areas of manufacturers are forced to production restrictions or cut off maintenance for environmental inspection, the site ammonium nitrate price trend is weak. Recent domestic nitric acid price trend temporarily stable, as of 5th market price of 1576.67 yuan/ton, nitric acid price trend stability for ammonium nitrate market impact is not big, ammonium nitrate price trend is stable; upstream raw material liquid ammonia price trend concussion, as of 5th liquid ammonia market price of 3436.67 yuan/ton, Upstream raw material price trend shock for ammonium nitrate market to bring a certain cost support, ammonium nitrate price trend is stable. Recently downstream civil explosion industry peak season, for the ammonium nitrate market demand weakened, ammonium nitrate manufacturers inventory increased, but the liquid ammonia market is also rising trend, ammonium nitrate market due to bad market low shock. Business Society ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price to maintain a shock, but downstream demand is not good, expected late ammonium nitrate market price or maintain concussion.

Commodity Name: Polyaluminium Chloride

Price Trend: As shown in the figure, the monitoring data of the business association (100ppi.com) show that on April 1, the mainstream price of polyaluminium chloride (solid, industrial grade, content (>28%) in the domestic market is about 1850 yuan/ton, on the 30th, 1983.33 yuan/ton in the mainstream market, with a monthly increase of 7.21%; the mainstream price of liquid (industrial grade, content 10%-12%) in the domestic market is about 350-400 yuan/ton, with little change in the monthly rise and fall. 。

Industry chain: upstream, according to the survey results of manufacturers, the price of hydrochloric acid and other products in upstream of polyaluminium chloride rose around 10 th of this month. According to the monitoring data of Business Association (100ppi.com), the price of hydrochloric acid was 117 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (1 day), 156 yuan/ton on the 10th day, and 177.5 yuan/ton on the 12th day, with an increase of about 5%, which remained stable until the end of the month. Aluminum chloride is used in environmental protection industry, the demand is basically stable, and the overall price of polyaluminium chloride has not changed much in recent years.

Future market forecast: In the short term, if there is no big fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the demand in the downstream is relatively stable, and the market price of domestic polyaluminium chloride is basically stable.

With Saudi Arabia’s increased spending boosting economic growth, the country expects higher oil prices than President Donald Trump might be satisfied with.

Data released Monday by the International Monetary Fund show that the world’s largest oil exporter needs oil prices to reach about $85 a barrel to achieve budget balance this year, up from an expected $73 in September.

This expectation highlights the thorny problems faced by Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Ben Saleman, who is trying to build closer ties with Trump on the one hand and financing a plan to revive economic growth and create jobs on the other. Saudi Arabia last week reiterated its commitment to achieve a balanced budget by 2023 and plans to increase spending by 7% this year.

Trump has repeatedly called on OPEC to keep oil prices low. On Friday, he tweeted that he had talks with Saudi Arabia and other oil suppliers about increasing oil supplies.

If oil prices rise further from an average of $62 a barrel so far this year, many of OPEC’s large member states and external partners are likely to achieve government budget surpluses. Saudi Arabia expects to reduce its budget deficit to 4.2% of GDP this year from 4.6% in 2018, a target economists say depends on rising oil prices.

“Oil prices may need as much as $95 a barrel to achieve fiscal balance in Saudi Arabia this year, but the IMF may assume that Saudi Arabia and the United States will transfer more funds to the Ministry of Finance,” said Ziad Daoud, chief Middle East economist at Bloomberg.

New York, April 26 news, COMEX copper futures closed higher on Friday, as investors are optimistic about the prospects of Sino-US trade negotiations.

The most active COMEX copper contract for May rose 2.50 cents to settle at $2.8865 a pound.

Fitch Solutions said in a report: “We believe that copper prices will rise at a limited rate in the coming weeks unless the U.S. -China trade agreement is finalized, because concerns about global economic growth remain.”

Copper stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to 638,030 tons, the lowest since October 2017.

McMurlen Copper and Gold Mine in Freeport, USA, saw copper output fall by 18% to about 340,000 tons in the first quarter.

On April 24, the PX Commodity Index was 67.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.38% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 47.53% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant has been put into operation. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. Due to the increase of domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market for p-xylene has increased. Price trend is stable for the time being. The start-up rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 24, the market of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 2 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 952-954 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 971-973 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low price of foreign units has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On April 24, the price of WTI crude oil in June fell to $65.89 per barrel, a decline of $0.41. Brent crude oil in June rose to $74.57 per barrel, an increase of $0.06. The price of crude oil declined, losing some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of paraxylene market stabilized temporarily. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend slightly increased on the 25th day, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6750-6850 yuan/ton, up to 24 domestic PTA start-up rate of about 78%, polyester industry start-up rate of about 91%, downstream production and sales rate maintained high, but PTA market price changes little, is expected to lower in the later PX market price.

A source familiar with the talks said Monday that India hopes the United States will allow its allies to continue to buy some Iranian oil, rather than stop buying it altogether from May.

A person familiar with the matter told Reuters that the United States is expected to announce on Monday that all buyers of Iranian oil must stop imports soon or face sanctions. This led to a 3% jump in crude oil prices to a high in 2019.

” They need to take care of their allies and strategic partners. From the very beginning, there has been talk of a gradual decrease in sanctions rather than a sudden drop to zero, “said the source, who asked for anonymity because of sensitive issues.

India is the second largest buyer of Iranian oil after China. India’s oil purchases from Iran have almost halved since November 2018. At that time, Washington granted substantial reduction exemptions (SREs) to several countries and regions, including India.

” Under SREs, we hope they will grant us grace to buy some Iranian oil, “the source added.

Indian refiners have yet to place orders for Iranian oil next May, and they are waiting to see if Washington will extend the sanctions exemption.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic TDI market price rose sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 14966.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price was 15766.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.35% in the week.

II. Market Analysis

Product: TDI price trend in East China this week has been up and down. Affected by the centralized booming of factories, on-site merchants are in a better mood after the market. Some of the offers are rising broadly. Some of them are cautious and wait-and-see for no quotation. On-site inquiry buying momentum has warmed up slightly, and the actual single transaction is still depressed. As of the 19th, domestic goods with tickets are quoted as 15900-16200 yuan/ton in East China, 16400-16600 yuan/ton in Shanghai, 15900-16100 yuan/ton in South China, 16400-16600 yuan/ton in Shanghai, 16400-16600 yuan/ton in Shanghai, and 16000 yuan/ton in North China. Refer to the vicinity of 16500 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: The price of nitric acid in the upstream of TDI in China continued to be stable this week, with the market price of 1560.00 yuan/ton as of the end of the week, which was more stable than that at the beginning of the week; the price quoted by mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu was 1550-1600 yuan/ton, that quoted by Anhui was 1500-1600 yuan/ton, and that quoted by South China was 1950 yuan/ton. The situation of nitric acid in various places remained unchanged, and the price was stable. Domestic toluene prices continued to decline this week, with an average of 5,525.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5,462.50 yuan/ton on Friday, a 1.13% drop in the week.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the data analyst of business associations, the TDI market is going up broadly at present, and the post-market mentality of the on-site merchants is positive, but there are fewer actual orders, the factory releases good news, and the stock is not pressured. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will rise steadily.