Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, the average price of n-butanol in mainstream areas was 6283.33 yuan/ton (including taxes) as of August 2. The average price of n-butanol in mainstream areas was 150 yuan/ton (including taxes) higher than that of last Friday (July 26). The weekly average price rose by 2.45%. At present, the mainstream price of n-butanol in China is around 6100-6350 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Mainstream price of n-butanol continued to rise this week. The start-up rate of n-butanol plant is about 80%, which is basically the same as last week, and the market supply is abundant. Downstream customers just need to purchase, after entering August, the ratio of inspection and repair in the n-butanol plan will increase, some downstream customers will fill warehouses at low prices, and the pressure of n-butanol sales will ease.

Industry chain: Propylene, the upstream product of n-butanol, has been rising steadily and moderately in recent days. The mainstream price of Shandong propylene market has been trading 7950-8000 yuan/ton. The overall trading atmosphere of upstream and downstream is general. Refinery stocks are low and downstream demand is good. The market will to explore remains. Main downstream butyl acrylate under cost pressure, price is firm, stable start-up.

3. Future Market Forecast

Forecast: It is expected that the price of n-butanol will increase steadily and slightly next week.

I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to the business association’s big list data, the market price of epichlorohydrin rose in July. The average price quoted by domestic epichlorohydrin enterprises was 14 600.00 yuan/ton on the 1st day and 17 466.67 yuan/ton on the 31st day. The market rose 19.63% in the month. In the three-month cycle, the increase was 61.73% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: In July, the market price of epichlorohydrin rose as a whole, and began to stabilize in the second half of the month, with little fluctuation. Due to the parking status of the main factories in China, the shortage of spot supply, rising prices and high offers from the holders. However, with the rapid rise of prices to high levels, the downstream of high-price raw materials have strong resistance, lack of purchasing intentions, weak trading atmosphere, the end of the month epichlorohydrin market prices fell slightly. Up to 31 days, the mainstream quotation in the East China market is around 17,000 yuan/ton, and the acceptance is delivered to the surrounding areas. Mainstream quotation in Shandong market is around 16 800 yuan/ton, self-raised. Mainstream market quotation in Huangshan area is around 17,000 yuan/ton, acceptance delivered.

Industry chain: The upstream propylene market price shocks in July, fluctuations are more frequent. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 7669 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 7977 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 4.01%. As of 31 days, the market turnover is about 7950-8100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7950 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in July 2019, 43 kinds of commodities rose annually in the chemical sector, of which 23 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 27.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were yellow phosphorus (47.32%), phosphoric acid (26.94%) and hydrochloric acid (23.33%). There are 33 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 11.9% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are trichloromethane (-16.39%), sulfur (-13.71%) and bromine (-9.66%). The average increase and decrease in July was 2.41%.

3. Future market forecast:

Analysts of the business association Epichlorohydrin think that the space for further increase of Epichlorohydrin in the later period is limited by the weak downstream gas purchases, high-end transactions are slightly difficult, the focus of negotiations has fallen back, and it is expected that August Epichlorohydrin interval consolidation will be the main, fluctuations are still possible.

Price Trend

In July, the propane Market tumbled. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of propane was 3700 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 3602.5 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 2.64% in the month, and increased by 24.88% compared with the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Propane price shocks this month, the market atmosphere is general. As of July 31, propane in Shandong Dongming Petrochemical and Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. was not quoted for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 3800 yuan/ton, Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 3530 yuan/ton, Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 3680 yuan/ton, Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 3650 yuan/ton, Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 3650 yuan/ton./ The ex-factory price of propane in Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3550 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Yuhuang Shengshi is 3600 yuan/ton.

Industrial chain: In July, the domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market was tortuous and the overall decline was dominant. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic liquefied gas market was 3816.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 3716.67 yuan/ton. The price fell by 2.62% in the month, 13.58% compared with the same period last year. In July, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market shocked upward. At the beginning of the month, the average price of propylene in China was 7669 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 7957 yuan/ton. The price rose by 3.76% in the month and fell by 8.7% compared with the same period last year. Saudi Amy Corp. announced in August that the price of propane was narrowly lowered and the price of butane was narrowly increased. Propane was 370 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from last month; butane was 360 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from last month. The cost of long cargo propane is about 3056 yuan per ton on shore and 2980 yuan per ton on butane.

In July, the propane Market showed a general performance, with major shocks. At the beginning of this month, CP price was introduced in July, propane fell by 55 US dollars, import cost fell further, international crude oil fell sharply, double negative, downstream entry enthusiasm was not high, manufacturers’shipments were flat, and propane market prices continued to decline. However, with the obvious rise of international crude oil, the propane market has been boosted, leading refineries have been actively pushing up, and prices have stopped falling and rebounded. Although the enthusiasm of downstream market entry has improved, with the price rising, the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing has declined again, with the price falling mainly in the middle of the month. Until the end of the month, the price of CPs was introduced in August, and then the price was adjusted back. With the coming of summer in July, the market demand continues to be weak. The main reason for the decline is the insufficient terminal demand. The downstream market is mainly short-sighted and cautious in entering the market.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in June 2019, there were 34 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 11 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were epichlorohydrin (20.33%), hydrochloric acid (20.00%) and calcium carbide (11.04%). There are 43 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 19% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrogen peroxide (-21.81%), silicone DMC (-17.38%) and butanone (-13.71%). This month’s average rise and fall was -0.38%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts at business associations said that CPs fell slightly in August, little changed from last month. At present, insufficient terminal demand is the main reason for the decline. July is the weakest month of propane demand. The market is expected to improve in August. There is little room for a short-term decline. The trend in August is expected to decline first and then rise.

On July 29, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the low of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 29th, domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, as of 29 days, the market price is 1756.67 yuan/ton. The declining trend of nitric acid price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate keeps low. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is slightly declining, the market performance is general, and the market transaction is still acceptable, mainly by the upstream transaction. The impact of this increase, transaction remains stable, most of the manufacturers’inventory pressure has eased slightly compared with the previous period, and some of the overhauls are the main ones. The supply performance of most manufacturers in North China is still acceptable. The price quoted by manufacturers in North China is maintained at around 3300 yuan/ton. The price quoted by manufacturers in Northwest China is between 2800 yuan/ton and 3000 yuan/ton. The normal shipment of manufacturers is downstream. Reasonable purchasing of manufacturers and the downward trend of raw material prices have a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

Price Trend

DOP prices have tumbled this week and the DOP market has been weak, according to business data monitoring. As of July 27, the price of DOP in East China was 7166.67 yuan/ton, down 350.00 yuan/ton from 7516.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, or 4.66%, or 19.85% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product Analysis

This week, DOP external quotation shock adjustment, overall plasticizer DOP external quotation rise, good for DOP market. DOP external offer in China is 940 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton, price in Southeast Asia is down 5 US dollars/ton; DOP equipment start-up rate of plasticizer enterprises is maintained, manufacturer stock is limited, demand is general, overall plasticizer DOP market is negative, DOP price in the future has a certain downward pressure.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

In terms of raw materials, as can be seen from the chart, the prices of octanol and phthalic anhydride, raw materials for DOP have fallen sharply this week, the cost of DOP has fallen sharply, and the market for DOP has fallen sharply. The decline of raw materials has affected the market of plasticizers. The overall DOP market in the future is lack of momentum to rise, and the pressure to fall is increased. It is expected that the DOP market will be mainly shocked and declined.

In terms of downstream demand, the price of PVC was stable this week, and the demand for PVC was stable. Overall, the DOP market in the future is good and limited, DOP downward pressure still exists.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst at business associations, believes that raw material prices are weak, DOP costs are falling, and DOP downward pressures remain in the future. And in the short term, the rise of raw materials market may not be large, the pressure of DOP market decline continues, which has a significant impact on DOP market. In terms of demand, the overall market of the plastic industry is stable, the market for plasticizers is limited, the overall DOP market is more bearish than bearish, the downward pressure is greater, and DOP price volatility is expected to fall in the future.

On July 24, the rare earth index was 368 points, down 6 points from yesterday, down 63.20% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 35.79% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals dropped by 2500 yuan/ton to 382,500 yuan/ton, Dysprosium by 50,000 yuan/ton to 2.3 million yuan/ton, and praseodymium by 700,000 yuan/ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxides in rare earth oxides declined by 3000 yuan/ton to 289.5 million yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide prices declined by 20,000 yuan/ton to 1815,000 yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide prices declined by 390,000 yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide prices declined by 3000 yuan/ton to 215,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys dropped by 2500 yuan/ton to 382,500 yuan/ton, while the average price of dysprosium-iron alloys was 1.835 million yuan/ton.

Recent price declines in rare earth market, domestic rare earth market trading market is poor, some commodity prices in the rare earth market are stable, but in the near future, prices of some products in the rare earth market have fallen continuously, the price of dysprosium and terbium metals has fallen, the recent market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products has been declining continuously, the supply in the market is normal, and the price of light rare earth has been in the near future. The trend is declining. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection inspection, rare earth separating enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market input of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply is normal, the price trend of rare earth market has slightly declined, the recent market sentiment of large enterprise groups is reluctant to sell, the market trend of rare earth is poor, but for production. Pricing of products is also a cautious wait-and-see by major manufacturers.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, the demand in the downstream is poor, and the trading market of the rare earth industry has declined.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental stringency will not diminish in the near future, coupled with the domestic rectification of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s export restrictions and normal supply, but the recent rare earth market transactions are limited, and the price of the rare earth market is expected to continue to fall.

On July 24, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 24th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily because of the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On July 23, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 3 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 820-822 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 839-841 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On July 23, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to 56.77 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.55 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 63.83 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.57 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices rose, which has a certain cost support role for the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene Market is temporarily stable. 。 Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices declined 24 days, the average price of East China is around 5800-6000 yuan/ton, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 90%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 86%, downstream production and sales rate maintained high, but PTA market price is slightly lower, and the PX market price is expected to be in the later period. Maintain shock.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations’list, the price of propylene oxide on July 23 was 9500 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with yesterday. Today’s market is temporarily stable, down 2.40% compared with last Tuesday (July 16). Today’s mainstream price of propylene oxide in domestic market is 9400-9600 yuan/ton.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: Propylene oxide Market is stable for the time being. The inventory of propylene oxide plant is low, and the supply and demand of the market are basically balanced. The cash delivery price of Wanhua Chemistry Shandong Mainstream Market was 9300 yuan/ton on 23rd, while that of East China Mainstream Market was 9600 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The market price of upstream propylene in Shandong continues to rise slightly. The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province rose in early July, experiencing two rounds of increase of about 600 yuan/ton. Since the 13th day, the price has gone down, totaling about 650 yuan/ton by the 19th day. After the two-day weekend stabilized, it began to rise on Monday. Today, it rose again by about 50 yuan/ton. At present, the market turnover is about 7700-7800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7700 yuan/ton. Many downstream polyether enterprises execute pre-orders, some polyether factories enter the plant for maintenance, and purchasing propylene oxide is the main demand.

3. Future market forecast:

According to business associations, the domestic propylene oxide market may be stable in the short run.

On July 22, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 22nd, domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend has been slightly lower, the market price is 1756.67 yuan/ton as of the 22nd. The decline of nitric acid price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has maintained a low level. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream has risen slightly, the market performance is general, and the market turnover is still acceptable, mainly affected by the above. The impact of increased travel costs, transaction stability, the majority of manufacturers inventory pressure slightly eased compared with the previous period, some maintenance-oriented, most manufacturers in North China supply performance is still acceptable, manufacturers in the northern region quoted price maintained in 3300 yuan/ton, northwest region quoted price in 2800-3000 yuan/ton, the normal shipment of manufacturers, Reasonable purchasing of downstream manufacturers and rising prices of raw materials in the upstream have a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

I. Price Trend Chart of Sodium Metabisulfite in China

According to the monitoring of business associations, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite continued to run at the bottom this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1833.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1833.33 yuan/ton, with a rise or fall of 0%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the overall market of sodium metabisulfite remains depressed. The mainstream market price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is between 1750 and 1950 yuan/ton, and most of the prices are around 1850 yuan/ton. Traditional off-season results in high domestic sodium pyrosulfite inventory, prudent overall market purchasing and selling, enterprises are still mainly to complete the orders of old customers, the market trading atmosphere is general. (The above prices refer to the foreign quotations of the mainstream domestic enterprises, some of which are not reported for the time being. The prices are for reference only. They have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact the manufacturers for consultation.

Industry chain: This week, domestic soda price is relatively stable, sulfur price continues to decline, raw material prices in the upstream continue to weaken adjustment, processed into continuous suppression, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite warms up and bears pressure.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that processing costs continue to decline, trade entities are cautious in purchasing, downstream demand has not improved, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite is expected to continue to maintain the bottom trend in the short term.