Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on September 30 was 34.97, down 0.36 points compared with yesterday, 65.03% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 28.19% higher than 27.28 points, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: natural rubber mainstream price trend in September 2020

In the first half of September, the mainstream price of domestic Baodao whole milk market was about 11792.5 yuan / ton, and on the 14th was 11551.25 yuan / ton, a half month decline of 2.05%. Among them, the highest point in the first half of the month is 11792 yuan / ton on the first day, and the lowest point is about 11252.5 yuan / ton on the 10th day, and the maximum amplitude is also 4.58%. This half month is a very typical downward trend of shock. The second half of the month: the mainstream price of domestic Baodao whole milk market was about 11645 yuan / ton on the 16th, and 11850 yuan / ton on the 30th, with a half month increase of 1.27%. Among them, the highest point of this month is the 25th day, and the price of 11925 yuan / ton appears in the second half of the month, and the lowest point is 11197.5 yuan / ton on the 9th day. The monthly maximum amplitude is 6.50%. The trend of natural rubber in this month is from the bottom to the first, then from the first half of the month to the first half, and then to the upward trend after the rebound in the second half.

New rubber output: Southeast Asia: the recent Thailand storm has a great impact on rubber output, and the Thai government has made certain compensation for areas seriously damaged by the storm. In 2020, due to the epidemic situation, drought and other factors, the production of raw materials in rubber production areas at home and abroad was slow, and it was inevitable to reduce production; Thailand was also affected by the storm, and the return of workers from Myanmar and Vietnam made Thailand’s rubber output situation more tense; tight raw materials were the main reason for the recent price increase. Thai media reported on September 5 that the price of grade III cigarette adhesive (RSS3) in Thailand exceeded THB 60 / kg in the previous week, a record high in the past three years; the global demand for rubber gloves increased during the epidemic period, resulting in an increase in latex sales; the spot quantity of Thai cigarette adhesive in China’s market continued to decrease and the price was firm. China: at present, there is not much rainfall in China’s domestic area, and tapping work can be carried out normally. However, it is different from the previous index when the market for domestic rubber is not released. Because the price of rubber imported from abroad is low, the dependence on overseas rubber is large. However, as long as domestic rubber is available, traders still actively purchase, although the price is higher.

Import and export: in terms of China’s situation, in August 2020, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 699000 tons, up 30% year-on-year; from January to August, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 4.508 million tons, an increase of 8.2% compared with 4.166 million tons in the same period of 2019. Globally, the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC) on September 24 predicted that global rubber consumption would pick up significantly in the third quarter as China actively participated in the natural rubber market. Chinese manufacturing companies are expected to increase their purchases in view of the rebound in economic activity, especially in the automotive sector. ANRPC said in its latest report that China is expected to consume 1.38 million tons, almost equivalent to 1.39 million tons in the same period last year. It expects imports from China to grow by 6.2% in the third quarter. Data show that Vietnam’s exports of mixed rubber to China continued to increase in August.

In the warehouse period of 1905, the inventory of natural rubber will increase by 2430t, and the inventory of natural rubber will increase by 2430t in warehouse period, and the inventory of natural rubber will obviously increase by 2430t in the warehouse period of 1905t and 20t in the warehouse period, and the inventory of natural rubber will decrease by 2530t.

Downstream demand: first of all, the operating rate of downstream enterprises rose on a month on month basis. According to the data, in August, affected by the favorable export, the operating rate of China’s semi steel tire manufacturers was 69.96%, with a month on month increase of 5.77 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 5.78 percentage points, indicating that the overall operating situation of tire manufacturers continued to improve. As of the week ending September 24, the operating rate of domestic semi steel tire manufacturers was 70.84%, up 0.18% month on month and 9.58% year on year; the operating rate of all steel tire manufacturers was 75.12%, up 0.07% month on month and 12.63% year on year. Secondly, the tire sales situation improved moderately. In August, China’s heavy truck market is expected to sell 128000 vehicles of various types, with a month on month decline of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 75%. The prosperity of China’s automobile industry is growing year-on-year, while the month on month is declining, that is, the demand growth of the automobile industry is moderate. According to the tire export data released by the General Administration of Customs on September 24, China’s rubber tire export volume in August was 630000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons on a month on month basis, with a year-on-year increase of 14.1%. In the same month, the export volume of rubber tires was 9.592 billion yuan, up 6.1% year on year. According to a number of data, since the second half of the year, with the epidemic situation curbed, overseas market demand continued to grow, and domestic tire manufacturers’ export orders gradually recovered. Third, tire prices have risen. The price of natural rubber, carbon black, steel cord and other tire raw materials rose several times in the third quarter, and the cost increased. Many tire enterprises raised their prices in line with the trend. The upward trend of tire prices will have a certain role in promoting rubber prices.

Hot spots of this month:

Thailand: in late September, it was reported that Thailand’s export in 2020 entered the final sprint stage of the fourth quarter. Affected by the epidemic situation, the purchasing power of economy, trade and all global markets were declining. In the first seven months of 2020, Thailand’s export growth was negative by 7.7%. This year, all offices confirmed that Thailand’s export growth rate would be negative double-digit. However, novel coronavirus pneumonia related products were well received, but orders for the fourth quarter of this year were increasing, including latex gloves, rubber products and so on. Rattsai, President of Thailand rubber Association, said that rubber raw material orders include concentrated latex for latex gloves, standard rubber and cigarette rubber for tire and other products. Since June, foreign orders have been received, especially from China, Malaysia and Vietnam. Due to the return of Burmese and Cambodian workers, there are not enough workers in Thailand to harvest rubber, resulting in lower production At present, the price of fresh latex is 48 baht / kg, raw rubber sheet is 51 baht / kg, smoked rubber sheet is 58 baht / kg, and the export price of grade 3 smoked rubber sheet is 62 baht / kg. At present, rubber orders have increased greatly. It is estimated that by the end of this year, Thailand will be able to export at least 3.8 million tons of rubber, worth about 180 billion baht. The export value is similar to that in 2019. Due to the decline of rubber production, its export volume is less than 410 tons in 2019.

Us: according to a recent notice in the Federal Register of the United States on September 23, the US Department of commerce must issue a ruling on the “sunset” review of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on passenger car tires from China before October 9. It is understood that this ruling is related to whether the US government will continue to impose high tariffs on Chinese tires. In 2015, the US government imposed 14.4% to 87.9% of anti-dumping duties and 20.7% to 100.8% of countervailing duties on some Chinese passenger car tires. The anti-dumping duty and countervailing duty of tires in China were 30.9% and 87.8%. Since the beginning of tax collection, the United States imported 50.4 million sets of passenger car tires from China in 2015, and only 2.8 million sets in 2019, a sharp drop of 95%. In the first six months of 2020, the United States imported passenger car tires from China again plummeted, only 905400 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 42%. In July 2020, the U.S. Department of Commerce launched an investigation into whether to continue to tax Chinese tires, and October 9 is the final date of the ruling. It is understood that as the initiator of the launch, the United States Federation of steel workers (USW) also believes that although China’s tires have declined a lot, their prices are still above the lowest level of anti-dumping. The US Department of Commerce has ruled that it is more likely to continue taxing Chinese tires. At the same time, the United States has recently launched a double anti investigation on South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam and Taiwan of China. It will be more difficult for Asian tires to enter the U.S. market in the future.

ANRPC: on September 24, the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC) predicted that global rubber consumption would pick up significantly in the third quarter due to China’s active participation in the natural rubber market. Chinese manufacturing companies are expected to increase their purchases in view of the rebound in economic activity, especially in the automotive sector. ANRPC said in its latest report that China is expected to consume 1.38 million tons, almost equivalent to 1.39 million tons in the same period last year. Imports from China are expected to grow by 6.2% in the third quarter. In the first seven months of 2020, the global production of natural rubber decreased by 8.9% year-on-year. According to the preliminary values of various countries up to July 2020 and the expected data for the rest of the year, ANRPC estimates that the global production of natural rubber will decrease by 4.9% to 13.149 million tons in 2020. Fungal disease is another factor hindering the prospects for global natural rubber production. It is understood that the disease has affected about 600000 hectares of mature rubber trees in Indonesia and Thailand, and to some extent affected Malaysia, Sri Lanka and India.

About the aftermarket: business agency analysis shows that the current is in the “golden nine silver ten” traditional consumption peak season, the domestic and foreign new rubber output is slow, the tire enterprise operating rate continues to increase, the tire export volume increases, the natural rubber market presents a variety of “partial” factors; if there is no big negative pressure during the double festival, the market after the National Day is too much, the market generally believes that bargain hunting can be done more appropriately.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the domestic ethyl acetate market fluctuated upward in September. As of September 29, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 5775 yuan / ton, which was 3.08% higher than the average price of 5602 yuan / ton in East China at the beginning of the month, and 2.67% higher than the same period of last month.

The domestic ethyl acetate market fluctuated and rose in September, the market started stable in the month, the enterprise inventory was low, the high price of raw materials and the trading intention of downstream market before the double festival promoted the price of ethyl acetate to go up. Near the end of the month, the market trading atmosphere declined, and the market tended to stabilize obviously. At present, it is about 5700 yuan / ton in East China, 5600 yuan / ton in North China and 6100 yuan / ton in South China.

In terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market is high and firm, the production of enterprises is recovering gradually, the market trading situation is good, and the enterprise inventory is not under pressure, the price intention is strong, and it is expected to maintain stable operation in a short time. The ethanol market is stable and firm, and the price of raw corn is running steadily under the support of demand. The ethanol production enterprises have successively issued maintenance plans, and the market supply is expected to be reduced to a certain extent, and it will be stable in a short time.

The price of international ethyl acetate Market has been stable in the month. At present, the port price of European market is about 755 euro / ton, and that of North American market is about 670-720 US dollars / ton.

According to the analysts of ethyl acetate of business club, at present, the domestic ethyl acetate Market has turned weak, and most of the production enterprises mainly focus on the delivery of early contract, which is close to the double festival and is expected to maintain stable operation in a short period of time.

At the beginning of September 28 and the beginning of the week, the prices of adipic acid in China were generally stable and small movements, and the quotations of dealers in some regions rose or fell slightly. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable for the time being. The normal operating rate of the device is about 80%. The manufacturer’s inventory is still under certain pressure. The market supply and demand structure is basically balanced, and the downstream demand is relatively weak. At present, adipic acid is still at the off-season level. On the cost side, pure benzene has been maintaining a narrow range fluctuation trend since September, with a slight increase of only 0.29% in the whole month. After the upward market in August, the current high level of pure benzene tends to be stable and slightly downward, and the support for the downstream adipic acid is insufficient.

In terms of local markets:

The market situation of adipic acid in East China is basically stable. The market is up and down slightly, and the ups and downs are mainly mutual. The quotation of dealers is up and down, and the overall range is about 100 yuan. The market inquiry is general. The downstream demand is low. Most dealers follow the market and make profits to ship goods. The manufacturers’ inventory pressure is general and the transaction is cold. The mainstream prices in today’s market are: Shandong source 6400-6600 yuan / T acceptance price, Jiangsu source acceptance price is 6500-6800 yuan / T, and the downstream is mainly rigid demand procurement.

The market of adipic acid in South China is stable with little change in quotation. Dealers still make profits. Manufacturers’ inventory pressure remains and the transaction is fair. The mainstream prices in today’s market are: 6500-6800 yuan / ton acceptance price of Shandong provenance, 6600-6900 yuan / ton of Jiangsu source acceptance price. The downstream is mainly rigid demand procurement.

Before the festival, adipic acid fundamentals have not changed greatly, and the contradiction between supply and demand still exists. At present, the price rise and fall are mostly affected by local supply. Overall, the market is still weak and stable, trapped by supply pressure and weak demand, which may still maintain a weak market. Price rise and fall powerless, do not rule out the possibility that prices continue to fall.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of lithium hydroxide is running smoothly. As of September 27, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, and fell by 4.09% year-on-year in a half year cycle, according to the data of the business club’s bulk list. The increase of downstream demand in the third quarter has given the market some support. However, at present, the stock of lithium hydroxide in the market is still at a high level, and the price action is insufficient, and the market is mainly stable. On September 26, the commodity index of lithium hydroxide was 130.16, unchanged with yesterday, 65.88% lower than the highest point of 381.48 (2016-09-12) and 30.16% higher than the lowest point of 100.00 on September 04, 2014. (Note: period refers to 2014-09-01 to now)

Upstream lithium carbonate, on September 25, the overall price of lithium carbonate picked up slightly, and the quoted prices of some enterprises slightly increased. According to the data of the business agency, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on September 25 was 39500 yuan / ton, which was 1.54% higher than that at the beginning of the week (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on September 20 was 38900 yuan / ton), On September 20, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44200 yuan / ton, which was 0.68% higher than that at the beginning of the week (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China on September 20 was 43900 yuan / ton). On the 25th, the mainstream quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 35000-40000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate was around 40000-45000 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 38 weeks (9.21-9.25) of 2020, there were 37 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which there were 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the total commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were chloroform (10.00%), butanone (7.87%) and dichloromethane (7.53%). There were 16 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products were acetone (- 8.25%), ethylene glycol (- 3.33%) and isopropanol (- 2.46%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.57%.

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business club believe that the upstream lithium carbonate has recovered slightly in the near future, the cost support is fair, and the downstream demand has increased in the third quarter, but the market inventory is still at a high level, restricting the price upward. It is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream information guidance.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei Province is stable this week, and the price of Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2550 yuan / ton, and that of 50% granules and 52% water soluble powder is about 2650 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week’s price. The market of potassium sulfate is running smoothly, and the price maintains the trend in the early stage. It is mainly to replenish small orders and the market is stable. At present, the inventory is basically sold out, and the source of goods is mostly concentrated in the hands of traders. Due to the current domestic downstream demand continues to be depressed, and with the gradual reduction of subsequent export orders, most manufacturers’ sales pressure has gradually increased, and the on-site inventory has gradually accumulated, and the overall market is in the state of price reduction. At present, the operating rate of Shandong and Hebei is still at a high level. The operating rate of Manheim factory in Shandong Province is 70% and that of Hebei factory is 75%.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of the business club believe that: Recently, the price of potassium chloride market has increased slightly, and the overall stable operation has been maintained. This has brought confidence to the market of potassium sulfate. At present, the fluctuation of potassium sulfate Market is not big. In the future, the trend of potassium chloride is still to be seen.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 24, the comprehensive price of PC market was 14933.33 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic PC market was up, and the negotiation atmosphere was positive. Compared with the same period last week, the price of PC increased by 2.75% and 6.92% compared with the same period of last month, showing a broad upward trend.

The domestic PC market is running at a high level, with a strong bullish atmosphere in the market. The prices of merchants are firm and the prices go up sharply. The prices in South China are 15000-16450 yuan / ton, and the medium and high prices are between 16000 and 18000 yuan / ton. The overall atmosphere of PC is good, and the rising trend is maintained in the short term. The latest prices of enterprises are: Luxi Chemical 14800 yuan / T, Lihua yiweiyuan 14200 yuan / T, Shanghai Kesi 15800 yuan / T, with smooth shipment and normal supply.

The market price of bisphenol in the upstream is running as a whole with a stable center of gravity. The mainstream price is 12500-12700 yuan / T, and the transaction atmosphere is dull.

On September 23, the rubber and plastic index was 645 points, unchanged with yesterday, 39.15% lower than 1060 (2012-03-14), and 22.16% higher than the lowest point of 528 on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business agency PC analysts believe: in the short term, the PC market is expected to digest the early growth, focusing on stable operation. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

Commodity name: DMF latest price (September 23): 7366.67 yuan / ton

Analysis points: the domestic DMF market price is firm, the market is upward, some regions are tight supply, low price is reluctant to sell, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the transaction volume is fair, the current mainstream price range is 7400-8000 yuan / ton.

It is expected that the domestic DMF market will maintain a high level before the festival.

On September 22, the price of silicon metal (441) rose slightly. According to the data of business agency, on September 22, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 11483.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.45% compared with the average market price of 11208.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (9.1); 10491.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 9045% compared with the average market price of (1.1) at the beginning of the year, a decrease of 2.96%.

On the 22nd, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions are as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 10800-10900 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 11200-11400 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 12000-12200 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 11600-11700 yuan / ton, and that in Huangpu port is 11600-11700 yuan / ton 。

Export orders picked up in September, with a small increase in volume. At present, the mainstream silicon factories are optimistic and willing to support prices. On the one hand, the silicon price moved up slightly, the market was expected to be better, and the seller’s reluctance to sell increased; on the other hand, the export price of silicon metal was affected by the exchange rate, and the RMB valuation rose.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price continued to rise this week and then stabilized, with the weekly low price of 7280 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; 7475 yuan / ton at the weekend with a weekly amplitude of 2.67%; and the weekly price of 7477 yuan / ton on Thursday, with a weekly amplitude of 2.70%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, since September 1, the price of propylene has been on the rise continuously, and the upward range is more and more large. Up to the 4th, the price rose by about 300 yuan / ton. From the 7th to the 10th, the first round of downward adjustment occurred, with a total reduction of 100-150 yuan / ton. After that, it was slightly stable. The price went up again on the 13th, up 350 yuan / ton on the 17th, and the price began to stabilize on the 18th The mainstream price is about 7450 yuan / ton. Low inventory, smooth propylene delivery.

On September 17, crude oil prices continued to rise, benefiting the propylene market.

PP futures market changes little this week, spot prices slightly down, the weekly decline of 0.41%, has little impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market continued to rise this week, up as high as 8.23%, propylene has a more obvious positive impact.

Propylene oxide market continued to rise steadily this week, with a weekly increase of 4.18%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin continued the upward trend in the first half of this week, and remained stable after the decline in the second half of the week, with a weekly increase of 0.88% and a weekly amplitude of 2.34%, which had a limited impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic n-butanol price continued to rise, rising rapidly at the weekend, with the weekly increase of 5.04%, which has a positive impact on propylene.

Octanol market also continued to rise this week, the weekly rise of 3.49%, slightly positive impact on propylene.

The isopropanol market fell slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 1.16%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

Huadong phenol rose slightly this week and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 0.47%, which had little impact on propylene.

The whole line of East China acetone remained stable this week, with no effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analyst of the chemical branch of the business society thinks: in a comprehensive view, the current propylene manufacturers have less inventory, no pressure on shipment, the crude oil price is obviously rising, the overall industrial chain is better, the profit of downstream products is generally optimistic, the purchasing enthusiasm is very good, the market atmosphere is still lively, but the price is in the top position, so it is expected that the propylene price will start to stabilize in the later stage, which does not rule out a small return Adjust the possibility.

According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of September 18, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11300 yuan / ton, which was 200 yuan / ton lower than that on September 13, a decrease of 1.74%; compared with September 1, the average price was reduced by 433 yuan / ton, or 3.69%.

This week, China’s domestic market for n-propanol went down, mainly due to the stagnation of domestic logistics during the double festival period. In order to stimulate the downstream pre holiday preparation, Nanjing n-propanol manufacturer lowered the ex factory price of n-propanol, and Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol to 10000 yuan / T, 500 yuan / T compared with last week. This has driven down the price of high-end packaged n-propanol suppliers. At present, the price difference between suppliers in the secondary market has narrowed, and the high-end price has moved down. The ex factory prices of n-propanol in different regions of the country have become more concentrated and closer. As of September 18, the delivery reference of n-propanol mainstream containing packaging is 11000-11300 yuan / ton, the rare high-end quotation is 11600 yuan / ton, and the delivery reference of main n-propanol bulk water is 10000-10600 yuan / ton. At present, the overall market of n-propanol is more stable.

In terms of raw materials, ethylene is on the rise in the near future. Asian ethylene market prices rose, as of the 17th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $805-815 / T, CFR Southeast Asia closed at $755-765 / T. The European ethylene market price fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 17th, the European ethylene market price was FD, northwest Europe closed at 687-698 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 673-685 US dollars / ton. Ethylene prices in the U.S. rose to $523-535 per ton as of the 17th. Generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and the United States is on an upward trend. The demand for ethylene in the whole market is good, and the market continues to rise.

Internationally, on September 16, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices skyrocketed, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.16/barrel, up $1.88 or 4.90%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the main contract settlement price to 42.22 US dollars / barrel, up 1.69 US dollars or 4.16%. The sharp rise in oil prices was mainly due to a sharp drop in US crude oil and gasoline stocks, and a combination of hurricanes forced a large amount of oil production in the United States. Crude oil soared, giving ethylene cost support, ethylene external market continued to rise.

The demand is normal and the raw material is stable after high level

At present, the downstream demand of n-propanol is stable, and the transmission surface of supply and demand is basically normal. In addition, the high support of raw materials and the small amount of stock before the festival, it is expected that the market of n-propanol in the short term is less likely to go down, and the overall trend is strong and stable.