1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business society, as of July 9, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 16700 yuan / ton, a small drop of 0.6% compared with the beginning of the week, up 1.2% on a month basis, up 3.3% compared with the same period last year.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business society, as of July 9, the average price of R134a refrigerant was 21333.33 yuan / ton, down 6.98% from the beginning of the week, 6.98% on month, and 23.55% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of refrigerant R22 is weak and stable, the price fluctuation of the enterprise is not big, and the price sentiment is strong, but the actual transaction has made more profit, and the quotation of the enterprise has been steadily and quietly decreased. Recently, the raw material methane chloride market is in high consolidation, cost support is good, coupled with the natural hot, after-sales market demand is still acceptable, supporting R22 prices are not easy to go down, but the support is limited. As of July 9, R22 market quotation is mostly in the range of 15500-17100 yuan / ton, Shandong is about 16000-17100 yuan / ton, Zhejiang region is about 15500-16500/ ton, Hunan region is about 15800-16300 yuan / ton, Guangzhou region is about 15500-16000 yuan / ton, and the price change is not much.

This week, the market price of refrigerant R134a fell broadly. In July, the cost side support fell. The market of R134a plunged sharply. The quotation of enterprises dropped by 2000-3500 yuan / ton, and the lowest price has fallen to 20000 yuan / T. the demand side is still weak, the demand is not good in the off-season, the gas is insufficient in the downstream, the carrier can deliver goods with profit and increase the negotiation space, but the overall trading atmosphere is light, The attitude of the workers is negative. Currently, R134a market quotation is mostly in the range of 20000-25000 yuan / ton, Zhejiang region is about 20000-22500 yuan / ton, Hunan region is about 20500-21000/ ton, Jiangsu region is quoted at 20000-25000 yuan / T, and prices in various regions have fallen sharply.

For raw materials, on July 9, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 9300-9600 yuan / ton, the factory price trend of the in-house merchants was temporarily stable, the domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers’ starting rate was normal, the supply of goods in the site was stable, and affected by the high fluorite price, the trend of the downstream refrigerant market was temporarily stable in the near future, and the on-site procurement was mainly based on demand, and the price in the field in the later period was expected to be stable.

Trichloromethane, July 8, the market of methane chloride in the methane chloride Market in Shandong Province was consolidated. The manufacturer offered about 3840-3890 yuan / ton of mainstream dichloromethane delivery price, 4350-4370 yuan / ton of mainstream trichloromethane delivery price, and a small number of orders were asked for downstream inquiry.

3、 Future forecast

The refrigerant analysts of the business agency believe that the current cost side supports the price of R22 should not fall deeply, but the market is stable and weak, and it is expected that the price will be stable and small in the short term. R134a is not supported on cost side, and the new capacity is entering the market, and the contradiction between on-site supply and demand is intensified, and the price and goods are expected to continue to decline.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of July 7, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 11800 yuan / ton, up 4.12% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, 15.69% compared with the price on June 7, and 14.19% over the same period in three months.

Acrylic acid market rose in June, with a monthly increase of 10.78%. In July, the acrylic acid market continued to rise. In recent years, some enterprises have been overhauling, the spot supply is tight, the downstream purchases on demand, the market trading rhythm is active, and the price rises steadily.

As for upstream propylene, according to the data of the business club’s block list, as of July 6, the reference price of propylene was 7818.55, down 0.17% compared with July 1 (7832.18). Market supply and demand are relatively stable, and prices are mainly stable.

Acrylic acid analysts from business news agency believe that at present, the upstream propylene price is mainly stable with limited cost impact, and the market supply and demand continue to be in tight balance. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be mainly strong, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, since June, due to the weakening of terminal demand, hydrogen peroxide has opened a deep falling mode, and the price has been falling continuously, falling to July, falling below the RMB 900 level. In early June, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 1013 yuan / ton, and on July 6, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 873 yuan / ton, and the price fell 13.82%.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide in business agency from January to June 2021, it can be seen that in the first half of the year, hydrogen peroxide fell 4 months, up 2 months. The biggest decline in February, the biggest in March, the decline in April, the decline in May June, and June’s decline was more than 12 percent.

During the Spring Festival, the end of hydrogen peroxide caprolactam and printing and paper manufacturers stopped for maintenance, and did not start up the whole system after the festival. Demand was depressed, and the hydrogen peroxide opening fell sharply, down more than 20%. In March, the terminal manufacturers began to resume construction, and hydrogen peroxide ushered in a big increase. Hydrogen peroxide growth slowed in April. After May 1, the hydrogen peroxide terminal is still available. In addition, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturer has maintained it. In the last half of the month, it showed strong performance. At the end of the month, due to the weak terminal demand, hydrogen peroxide opened a sharp decline. In June, the decline of hydrogen peroxide was even more constant, falling by more than 12%.

On July 6, some domestic hydrogen peroxide manufacturers quoted the following:

The price of hydrogen peroxide in Luxi Chemical Industry is 780 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton compared with that in early June; The price of hydrogen peroxide for Zhengyuan fertilizer in Hebei Province is 930 yuan / ton, which is down 70 yuan / ton from the price in early June; The price of hydrogen peroxide in Quansheng chemical industry in Anhui Province is 930 yuan / ton, which is down 170 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

The hydrogen peroxide will fall continuously in the coming of off season

In June, due to the sharp decline in paper purchasing volume, hydrogen peroxide entered the off-season of consumption, led by the negative factors, the price of hydrogen peroxide remained down, and the manufacturers were not confident enough to reduce the factory price. Hydrogen peroxide market fell continuously, falling more than 12%.

In July, hydrogen peroxide still remained weak. Due to the poor terminal demand, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers stop for maintenance. The hydrogen peroxide unit of Zhengyuan fertilizer has been stopped for maintenance and the price is relatively stable. The weak trend of hydrogen peroxide Market in Shandong and Anhui is mainly. As of July 6, the mainstream quotation of domestic hydrogen peroxide manufacturers is RMB 900 / ton.

On July 6, the commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and caprolactam was 90.74, which was the same as yesterday, falling 58.59% from 219.12 (2020-10-27) of the highest point in the cycle, and 0.99% higher than the lowest point of 89.85 on January 29, 2019（ Note: cycle refers to January 1, 2019 to present)

Caprolactam remained down in early June, down more than 1.4%. After the Dragon Boat Festival, caprolactam continued to stabilize, and the price of caprolactam was in a small increase near the end of the month. It was up to the beginning of July. The rise of caprolactam did not affect the decline of hydrogen peroxide, and hydrogen peroxide continued to decline.

On July 6, the price index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper commodity was 119.81, down 0.5 points from yesterday, down 51.30% from 246.00 (October 21, 2019), and 11.41% higher than the lowest point 107.54 on January 29, 2019（ Note: cycle refers to January 1, 2017 to present)

In June, restricted by environmental protection policies, the paper plant started down, rain weather affected, transportation costs increased, and the paper factories increased the factory price of corrugated paper, corrugated paper market rose all the way, and continued to operate at a high level. In July, corrugated paper market continued to stabilize, boosting the hydrogen peroxide Market Limited.

Li Bing, an analyst with hydrogen peroxide at the business agency, said: the market is expected to stop falling and rebound because of the continued poor demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals and the price has fallen to a low level.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market in June declined slightly. By the end of the month, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 6312.5 yuan / ton, which was 1.37% lower than the price of 6400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 20.81%. In June, the price trend of phthalic anhydride dropped slightly, the spot supply was normal, and the market of phthalic anhydride declined.

In June, the overall price trend of phthalic anhydride market declined slightly. The market situation of phthalic anhydride was general, and the downstream demand was normal in the near future. The price trend of o-benzene was temporarily stable in June, and the plasticizer market rose slightly. Supported by the good news, the price decline of phthalic anhydride market was limited. The domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers have little change in operation. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the site is about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal. The price of phthalic anhydride on the site has little change. The market of downstream plasticizer industry has dropped in the middle of the year, and the actual transaction situation is general. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is general, and the high-end transactions in the market are limited. In East China, the mainstream of negotiation on the supply of neighboring France is 6200-6400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of negotiation on the supply of naphthalene method is 6000-6200 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6200-6400 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride market still exists, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand. Recently, the trend of downstream DOP market has risen slightly, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has declined slightly.

In June, the price trend of domestic o-benzene was temporarily stable, and the market price was 6200 yuan / ton. The stable price of domestic o-benzene was a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import o-benzene market in port area remained high, and the external quotation of o-benzene was stable. Recently, the inventory of o-benzene in port area was high, and the external quotation of o-benzene was stable. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation, The price trend of o-benzene is temporarily stable, the price of raw material o-benzene is good for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride, and the overall trend of phthalic anhydride market in June has little decline.

In June, the market price of the downstream DOP of phthalic anhydride increased. According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic DOP price was 13066.67 yuan / ton by the end of the month, and the price increased by 4.64% in June. The equipment of DOP enterprises in the yard started normally. With the rise of the price of isooctanol, the cost of DOP increased, and the price trend of DOP rose. DOP enterprises started normal, the spot supply was sufficient, and the momentum of DOP rising in the future was weakened. In the future, the cost of DOP decreased, the operating rate of enterprises increased, the support of DOP rise weakened, and the high price caused too much pressure on the cost of downstream products. The downstream customers were more resistant to high price DOP, and the transaction price was subject to the real-time price. The overall DOP price was about 13200-13500 yuan / ton. The DOP market trend rose in June, and the price decline of phthalic anhydride market affected was limited.

On the whole, the recent trend of crude oil price is relatively strong, coupled with the rising trend of downstream plasticizer industry and the recent stable trend of o-benzene price, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will be stable in the future.

Price analysis of this week (6.28-7.2, the same below)

According to the data of business news agency, the mainstream price of silicon metal on July 2 was 14366.67 yuan / ton; It rose 0.41% on a week-on-week basis and 2.68% on a year-on-year basis last month.

On February 2, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Huangpu port area is 14500-14600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14550 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Tianjin port area is 14500-14600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14550 yuan / ton; The price range of ᦇ 441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 14200-14400 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14300 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Sichuan is 14100-14300 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14200 yuan / ton; Fujian ᦇ 441 metal trading range 13400-13600 yuan / ton, the average price of 13500 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Shanghai is 15000-15200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15100 yuan / ton.

Lido

From the perspective of raw materials: most of the coal plants have been shut down for a hundred years, and the safety inspection after accidents in the coal industry has been superimposed. Most of the main supply areas of coal mines are out of stock;

Export perspective: due to the shortage of domestic supply, foreign downstream trade is actively replenishing, and the price of export trade order rises accordingly.

Bad news

From the perspective of supply: the production of Xinjiang organic silicon plant will be reduced, and the time to resume construction is expected to be in the first ten days of July, but the overall output will decrease by 2% on a month on month basis. In addition, the output of other provinces, such as Guangxi and Hunan, will increase in June. It is reported that the output in June was 230000 tons, an increase of 21.7% on a month on month basis;

Demand perspective: the 200000 ton plant of large organic silicon plant was shut down, some downstream manufacturers were also affected by the policy, and the downstream consumption performance was poor.

Future forecast

The resumption of coal production still depends on the regulation of local policies. It is expected that production will resume in early July. However, with the support of raw materials in the short term, it is unlikely that domestic silicon metal will fall. In addition, the current resumption of production in Yunnan is slow, and the domestic spot production is lower than expected. Business analysts believe that the price of silicon metal will remain high in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of June 30, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 530 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on June 1 (510 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 20 yuan / ton, or 3.92%.

At the beginning of June, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to maintain a high and stable operation. On June 1, the market reference price of 30% grade phosphate ore was 510 yuan / ton, which was nearly 120 yuan / ton higher than that of last year. The actual transaction in some areas continued to move up. The low-end price in the field continued to decrease, and the field continued to maintain a high level of consolidation operation. Until the end of June, the price of phosphate ore enterprises in Hebei increased again by 20-50 yuan / ton, The market is going up again. Driven by the mining enterprises in Hebei, the mining enterprises in Guizhou and Guangxi are also on the rise in price. Near the end of the month, the market price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou is increased by 10-30 yuan / ton, the market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is increased by 20 yuan / ton, and the market price of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guangxi is increased by 10 yuan / ton, The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore was increased by 20 yuan / ton.

As of June 31, the transaction of phosphorus ore market in Guizhou is normal, the shipment of mining enterprises is normal, and the orders of cooperative old customers are relatively stable. The quotation of 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 430-490 yuan / ton, of which the quotation of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Xifeng is 490 yuan / ton. The market of phosphate ore in Guangxi is stable, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock factory in songgan mining enterprise is 440 yuan / ton.

Downstream yellow phosphorus, Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus prices fell in June. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan have resumed production, but the recovery of the furnace is very limited. At the end of the month, the downstream construction started to improve, the stock of goods increased, and the supply of yellow phosphorus in the overall market tended to be tight. The price of yellow phosphorus showed some signs of rebound, but the price of yellow phosphorus had been declining in the early stage, and the decline rate began to slow down last week. Up to now, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 19200-22000 yuan / ton; The price quoted in Sichuan is about 19800-20000 yuan / ton; The price quoted in Guizhou is about 19300-19500 yuan / ton.

In June, the domestic price of map rose. On the 30th, the domestic price of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise, the current supply was reduced, most enterprises’ quotations were suspended, and the pre order volume was large. As of June 30, the ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 3000-3200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 58% powdered ammonium is about 3200 yuan / ton.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the domestic phosphate rock market is generally stable at a high level, and the downstream demand is normal. The transactions of phosphate ore mines in Guizhou and other places are good. The phosphate ore analysts of the business community predict that in July, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly be consolidated at a high level.

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of silver market in the morning on June 30 was 5304.33 yuan / kg, which was 5336.67 yuan / kg higher than that in the spot market yesterday; 61%; Compared with the spot market price in early June (June 1), the average price in early morning was 5739.67 yuan / kg, a decrease of 7.58%; Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 4.43%.

The spot price of gold on June 30 was 366.77 yuan / g, down 0.79% yesterday; Compared with the average price of spot market in early June (6.1), it was 393 yuan / g, a decrease of 6.67%; Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), it was 392.70 yuan / g, down 6.60%.

In June, due to the rising yields of US dollar and US Treasury bonds, precious metals were suppressed to a certain extent. The dynamic price of precious metals in the month was weak.

The recovery of precious metals tends to fluctuate

The recent weakness of precious metal silver prices is mainly due to the strong performance of US data, the hawkish remarks made by Federal Reserve officials, the strong US dollar and the market expectation of rising interest rates.

At its June meeting, the FOMC maintained the policy interest rate unchanged and did not change its asset purchase plan. However, the Committee raised its inflation expectations for this year and next, suggesting that the interest rate increase may be faster than expected. The dot matrix shows that more and more Fed officials are turning to “hawks”: of the 18 officials involved in the forecast, seven are expected to start raising interest rates in 2022, compared with four in March this year; Thirteen officials are expected to start raising interest rates in 2023, up from seven members in March this year. The expectation of an early interest rate increase also depressed the price of precious metals to a certain extent.

Although the investment demand is poor, in the medium and long term, in terms of physical consumption, the industrial demand of silver and platinum, driven by economic recovery, especially the concept of green and renewable energy, has a strong growth expectation.

Weak within the day: focus on us small non farm data in the near future

On June 30, 2021, the benchmark price of Shanghai silver (silver ingot with standard weight of 15kg and fineness not less than 99.99%, pricing contract) in the midday trading of Shanghai gold exchange was 5296 yuan / kg, which was 17 yuan / kg lower than the benchmark price of 5313 yuan / kg in the morning trading of June 30; Compared with the benchmark price of 5349 yuan / kg in midday trading on the 29th, the price was reduced by 53 yuan / kg.

On Wednesday, the ADP employment data of the United States, known as “small non-agricultural”, will be released soon, which is worthy of attention in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this month. The average price of isopropanol in China was 7133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 6650 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price fell by 6.78% within the month.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: price trend comparison of acetone and isopropanol in June

In June, domestic isopropanol fluctuated and fell. Internationally, the price of isopropanol in the United States was stable in June, while the market of isopropanol in Europe was stable. Up to now, the quotation range of isopropanol in Shandong is about 6600-6800 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is about 6500-6900 yuan / ton. The quotation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is 6500-6600 yuan / ton. This month, the raw material acetone fell, the operation rate of East China acetone isopropanol plant increased, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment was obvious, the on-site inquiry was general, the on-site trading of isopropanol was short, and the price was reduced.

In terms of raw materials, isopropanol prices fell this month. The average price of domestic acetone was 5675 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4950 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price fell by 12.78% within the month. At present, the supply of spot resources in the market is sufficient, the buying mood of terminal factories is general, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is low, and there are few real orders in the market. Factory inventory is high, import supply is replenished one after another, market supply is sufficient, short-term trading atmosphere is difficult to change, terminal just need small order replenishment. Downstream more wait-and-see, operators more cautious operation. The cost of propylene isopropanol is inverted, and the operating rate is low. Except for Jinzhou petrochemical, all other units are shut down in May.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analyst of chemical branch of business society thinks: at present, foreign export orders are general. The price of raw material acetone fell, the cost of propylene hung upside down, and the effect of forced support was little. Most of the downstream operators are mainly on the wait-and-see basis, and their buying enthusiasm is not high. At present, the factory inventory increases, the spot supply is sufficient, and the delivery pressure of the goods holder is greater. The lower reaches are mainly wait-and-see, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is light. Overall, isopropanol prices are likely to continue to decline in the short term, and follow-up attention should be paid to news changes.

1、 Price data

As of June 27, the average factory price of domestic domestic refining and hydrotreating naphtha was 6883.33 yuan / ton, up 0.83% from 6826.67 yuan / ton on June 21. The actual transaction price of local hydrotreated naphtha was about 6900-7000 yuan / ton.

As of June 27, the average factory price of domestic straight run naphtha was 6763.33 yuan / ton, up 1.00% from 6696.67 yuan / ton on June 21. The actual transaction price of direct distillation naphtha was about 6700-6800 yuan / ton.

On June 27, the naphtha commodity index was 84.95, which was flat with yesterday, down 17.22% from 102.62 points (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and 101.11% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016（ Note: the cycle refers to September 1, 2012 to present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, naphtha prices rose slightly, the refining market this week has no inventory pressure, and international crude oil rose, which requires procurement as the main.

Upstream: the international crude oil price has risen, the international economy has gradually recovered, the vaccination in the United States is growing rapidly, the demand for crude oil in the United States is in a peak season, and the expectation of recovery of demand in Europe and the United States has boosted the crude oil market. In addition, OPEC + alliance continues to adhere to the measures of gradually resuming supply from June to July, Offsetting the risk of increased supply that could result from consensus reached in the US Iraq nuclear agreement to support oil prices.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, toluene price fell slightly this week and stabilized. On June 20, the price of toluene was 5801 yuan / ton, and on June 27, it was 5781 yuan / T, down 20 yuan / T from last week, or 0.34%. Mixed xylene rose slightly this week, with the price of mixed xylene of 5840 yuan / ton on June 20 and RMB 5880 / T on June 27, up 40 yuan / ton, or 0.68% from last week. In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price this week remained stable, with the price of 6500 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, 13 commodities in the energy sector rose month on month in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 25th week of 2021 (6.21-6.25), of which more than 5% of the commodities increased by 1, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 commodities were coking coal (6.35%), power coal (3.47%), coke (2.77%). There are three commodities falling on the same month, the first three products are dimethyl ether (-2.68%), petroleum coke (-2.41%), MTBE (-0.84%). This week, the average rise and fall was 1.12 per cent.

3、 Post market forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the international crude oil price is high in the near future and the cost of naphtha market is supported. Near the end of the month, the terminal and aromatics have just to be supported. The pressure on the refinery delivery is not large. It is expected that the price of naphtha refining will be stable in the near future, with some small fluctuations.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of June 25, the average price of pet water bottle manufacturers was 6733.33 yuan / ton. The overall pet market was running smoothly with a small upward trend. The prices quoted by manufacturers were stable, and the price range was 6700-6800 yuan / ton.

This week, the pet market was mainly stable, with prices of some manufacturers rising slightly and rising in a narrow range. At present, pet goes smoothly, transaction prices fluctuate above and below the cost line. The focus of negotiation is narrow and upward. The downstream demand is general, and the inventory is normal. PTA in the upstream has a narrow and upward trend, which is favorable for support, spot flow and tight inventory. The mainstream price range is 4800-5000 yuan / ton.

On June 24, the rubber and plastic index was 775 points, flat with yesterday, down 26.89% from 1060 points (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 46.78% from 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

Business community pet analysts believe that: in the short term, pet prices are stable on the upper side, and the downward range is limited（ To learn more about the latest market trends, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get information on goods, and grasp the price of commodities.